moonslav59

Does anyone believe all pitchers have the exact same injury risk? I understand that is but one factor in making a choice, and eventually upside potential can reach a point, where it outweighs the higher injury risk factor. I fully understand those who want Buehrle- injury risk and all. I guess I'm not understanding why it seems hard to understand my position, even if you disagree with it.

I didn't say sign Pivetta. I said Buehler has way higher upside and agree Pivetta's is as a #3. I mentioned there is injury risk in even guys like Gio. I was just talking risk and odds of missing lots of times. Also, someone suggested $19M x 2 for Buehrle, and that AAV is close to what Pivetta will get, so the risk with Pivetta is more years. The reward can be much greater with Buehrle. I'm not doubting that and have agree on that point.

Risking not having him pitch vs someone like Pivetta, who is more reliable but has much less upside.

He has more upside. More risk, too.

I'm not excited about any FA SP'er beyond Burnes. I hate the idea of looking to upgrade our #4 or #5 SP, but it's better than going with what we have. I do think adding Crawford to the pen would mean adding Pivetta, manaea or Flaherty would be a double boost, in that way. I'm not sure Quinatana ia better than Crawford or even the Criswell/Fitts/Priester/Dobbins combo. Flaherty, Manaea or Pivetta plus Hoffman would be fine with me, but still less than I hoped for. SP: Crochet, Houck, Flaherty, Bello, Giolito (Crawford long man/spot starter) RP: Hoffman, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson Not bad.

That's exactly how I see it. We already added one injury-risk pitcher in Crochet, and have Whitlock, Hendriks and Gio slotted in key positions on the 13 man staff. We need someone durable and dependable. (I know, that's what many felt Gio was, but we gotta play the ods.)

A bigger splash than Hoffman is disappointing, to me. (I think Bregman would be a bigger splash, and way more expensive, but I only consider that, if Devers is moved to 1B, and we still add someone like Hoffman, too.) I'm okay with putting catcher below the RHB need. I'm okay putting a third pitcher below a big RHB. I do think we need a big RHB, but maybe not as much as some of you. (I also think we can trade Abreu for pitching of a RHB just like him but with reverse splits.)

Rendon is out half the time and sucks the other half. His OPS is like Abreu vs LHPs. His OAA is -7 in 783 innings ('23-'24) which works out to be worse than Devers at -14 in 2431 innings. I'd rather DFA Yoshida than trade his even up with the money at zero for the Sox with Rendon. Arenado is another story.

We need 5 things, with a RHB near #4 or #5. (Okay, maybe the last 3 slots are tied for 3rd.) 1. Ace or #2 2. Closer 3. another solid RP 4. A real catcher 5. a big RHB On replacing O'Neill and then some vs LHPs. RHB Story is back. Casas hits LHPs well. He's back. Devers played hurt, and it hurt his numbers vs LHPs, when usually he does fine vs them. I expect Campbell to play some in 2025. He's a RHB. Anthony has good splits in the minors, but it's hard to know if that translates, well. I do think Teoscar or Santander would be a nice add, and if it allowed us to get a decent pitcher for Abreu, who sucks vs LHPs, that could balance the line-up and help the pitching staff. I'm just not sure I'd call either a "big splash." Our 26 is unbalanced: hitting is very good $5th to 10th best), defense very bad (25th to 30th), pitching still looking 15th to 20th, IMO. If JH gets Burnes and Hoffman, then I'd be thrilled to get a big RHB. If we spend on a RHB and let pitching slide, I'm not thrilled, at all. You can disagree, but you at least have to understand my position, right?

I think Cris Sale messed me up. I just can't cozy up to oft-injured pitchers, at all. When a guy like Gio misses the season, I can get over it, more easily, but when you go out of your way to sign injury-prone or pitchers still in recovery, I'm off the bandwagon. In 2019, Sale K's 25 of his last 43 batters faced, before going on the IL. He missed 2020 and the first 4 months of '21. In 2021, when he came back, he had 52 Ks in 43 IP to end the season strong (3.16 ERA with a 2.89 FIP over hs last 5 starts- a larger sample size than Buehler's 10 IP) Hopes were high for 2022, but he started 2 games for us. He had 54 K in 44 IP, after coming back from that summer injury, and had a 3.92 ERA After 4 bad starts in his first 5 games in 2023, he had a 3.16 ERA to finish the season, despite missing June and July. Some poster claimed later, we should have known he was back in form.\ Sale poisoned my mind. I'm not sure, if there is an antidote. I get where some of you are coming from. The guy has very serious upside, but you know, so does Whitlock, and nobody trusts him to give us a great 2025.

I'm not so sure. While we need a RHB, we are already crowded in the OF, before Anthony ets called up. (Campbell can also play OF.) Yoshida and Ref can play LF in a pinch, as well. We need Pitching, pitching, pitching and a catcher.

I saw Sale as a project, after pitching some the years before his next season of sparse playing time, too. I fully understand the upside to Buehler, but I just can't see signing him as a "splash" anymore than I saw Paxton as one. Buehler has had just 2 seasons over 138 IP. I can't get excited about that, and the same issue is what concerns me about Crochet, but he had a full season, last year. Buehler had 10 nice IP. I won't be bummed, if we sign him, but if he's the only pitcher we add between now and opening day, I will be. The guy could be great. I'm just sick of "could be's." I got sick of Sale's "could be's," too. I still am. The fact that he cam back after 5 whiffs is not something that encourages me about Buehler.

Possible PA comps from 2024 to 2025: 735>735 Duran (maybe more, if not suspended) 601>651 Devers +50 571>471 Rafaela -100 (No SS play) Anthony might reduce this further. 487>437 Wong -50 473 O'Neill> 0 -473 106>606 Story +500 447>497 Abreu +50(unless Anthony takes over) 421>521 Yoshida +100 243 Casas + 278 Smith + 93 Dalbec + 75 Cooper>689 Casas +0 317>317 DHam +0 (maybe less with mayer & Campbell call-ups) 307>357 Refsnyder +50 254 McGuire + Jansen> 294 Narvaez +50 (see Wong -50) 216>216 Romy +0 223 EValdez> 223 Campbell +0 114>314 Grissom +200 (unless Campbell steals the show)

If we are lucky with few injuries, maybe we could see this comp to 2024's IP by Pitcher: 2024>2025 IP Optimistic View: 184> 184 Crawford (if not used in pen and as spot starter) +0 179>199 Houck +20 162>182 Bello +20 146 Pivetta> 176 Crochet +30 85 as SP Criswell> 175 Giolito +90 (lessen pen games and spot starts) That's 160 more IP from our top 5 SP'ers- perhaps best case 76>76 Wink (hopefully, no GS) +0 63>43 Weissert -20 57>37 Kelly -20 55>65 Slaten +10 55 Jansen> 55 Hendriks +0 44 Martin> 64 Whitlock as RP +20 52 Anderson> 52 Wilson & Fulmer +0 51 Bernardino> 51 Guerrero +0 45 Keller & Fitts> 45 Fitts & Priester These are rough estimates.

It has been sad, for sure, so far. It matters little that we "tried" for bigger fish than last couple winter's Eflin, Monty, and other mid level FAs. There was the false Yamo flag raised, but it was brought down, quickly. JH needs a win. If he doesn't see that, I'm jumping on the ousting bandwagon.

Good one. I do like Hendriks better than Wilson, for what that is worth. The addition of Crochet was very nice, but just Crochet, Chapman, Hendriks, Narvaez and Wilson fall far short of what I felt we needed to make serious gains, this year. I'm not even sure they equal what we lost: Pivetta, Jansen, Martin & O'Neill plus McGuire/Jansen.

I don't see Buehler as even a small splash. He'd be a project with hopes he pulls a Sale and an expectation of maybe a Paxton 2023. Flaherty would be nice, but I'd want a Hoffman or Teoscar/Santander with him to make some ripples.

It's not like saying WE did anything special by adding hendriks and Fulmer. Maybe lunch a Burger King.

One could argue that can only be Burnes.

I was going to say him, since he only started 4 games, but then what about Story? Casas and Slaten missed some time, too. Devers missed time and played hurt other times. Yoshida. I just figure, what we gain from them, we may lose from others, but yes, if 100% healthy, we could see some major additions. Story is huge, especially for SS defense, where Rafael, DHam & Co were awful on D. Casas could make up for O'Neill's loss, as Tyler missed some time, too. Whitlock could be a huge plus, but is a wildcard.

We have to act, now. We can't wait for the window to open in 2026 or 2027, despite the incoming top prospects timelines. Houck reaches free agency in 2028. That may be the end of the window. (maybe not.) Whitlock in '27. Duran & Crawford in '29, along with some others. We don't have ig stars leaving, soon. Act NOW!

I'm not excited about either, as well, but they would be significant additions. "Big Splash:" probably not. I'd like to see Burnes & Scott and a LHB trade for a RHB.

Keeping his salary off the lux tax books.

In a sense, we really added Hendriks and Fulmer for 2025, not 2024, so we can say this is our significant net plus & minus: Plus: Crochet, Hendriks, Fulmer, Wilson, Narvaez Minus: Pivetta, Jansen, Martin, O'Neill (HR leader and big RHB), Valdez (most games started at 2B) [Minor: McGuire, D Smith, Chase Anderson (11th in IP) and Keller]

It's not too late, but we are down to a handful of big splash players, and some seem like no chance signings, like Scott. Burnes Bregman Teoscar No Go: Scott, Alonso & Walker Santander & Flaherty (borderline big splash) Next Tier: Manaea, Hoffman and some up for debate