moonslav59

Soxprospects,com has a take on the trade: http://news.soxprospects.com/2024/12/trade-analysis-scouting-prospects-dealt.html

I think the best time to trade Yoshida may be this summer, but he will have to be showing he can hit near .800 to make a difference over trading him, this winter. Either way, we will have to pay more than half of his remaining contract, and maybe 70-80%. Finding a taker is the toughest task. Taking on a big or bigger contract might work, if we get back an overpaid pitcher who still has some hopes of being helpful. The problem with that is, when a team is looking to dump a grossly overpaid player who still has some value, they usually want a full dump. They are not looking to just save a couple million a year. To me, STL might be our best hope, and getting Arenado back to play 1B (NOT !B!!!!) would greatly improve our defense and our offense vs LHPs. He is clearly in decline, and may drop off a cliff, at any moment, but Yoshida at DH for us, forces Casas and Devers to play a position. Plus, I'm not sure Yoshida is any better than Anthony, Campbell and others who are looking for a position to play. Also, Refsnyder hits LHPs better than anyone on the team, right now, and his best position is a DH platoon. I'd offer STL some secondary prospects, and maybe even Crawford, if we add another SP'er like Burnes, Manaea, Flaherty or Pivetta. Arendao is owed more, but COL pays $5M x 2 years of his deal and his third year is $15M vs Yoshida's $18M. Just get it done! I'd try to keep Arias, but if the plan is to keep Mayer and Romero, I'd be okay with making Arias part of the deal. We might offer Bleis, Cespedes, Romero or JH Garcia, instead. I'd hesitate to trade 2 of these guys, especially if one is Arias, but I might offer two from the others, with one being Romero. I'm not sure that gets it done. We might have to add Fitts, Dobbins or Sandlin to the list of who STL can take.

If we "wait" until he has a great year, his price will double. The best chance to extend him is in the next few months.

Bregman will cost more than Alfonso, but for good reason. He plays very good defense. My worry is the talk of playing him at 2B. I'd rather have Alonso, if that is the plan. Just play Campbell at 2B and use Bregman's money, elsewhere- like on a pitcher or two.

I get how the arrangement would work, but why add a 4th DH to the roster, when we can add a RHB that actually can play defense, too?

Casas and Devers are two of our best hitters, especially as lefties vs lefties. Both are best utilized at DH or 1B. Why sign a 1Bman?

The trade was a big risk, but there could be a big reward, too.

Did I miss something? Who is upset about signing anyone to a minor league deal?

We just traded 3 of our best 7 everyday prospects for a pitcher. I'm fine with getting more pitching, but the next one better be with 4+ years of control. We do still have Mayer, Arias and Romero as SS prospects and Campbell and Cespedes at 2B. This on top of Story (3 yrs) Grissom, DHam and Rafaela, who have 4+ years of control and can play 2B. Since Campbell can play OF, too, we seem to have more than we need there, too, despite just losing Montgomery. Who could we get for Mayer and Abreu get us for a 4+ year pitcher?

Agreed. Even Mayer, Cespedes and Bleis over Teel and Monty.

Kluber, Richards and Paxton all were once very good to great pitchers, at one point. Kluber even looked pretty good, the year before we signed him. I understand signing anyone can be a risk, but why seek out the greatest ones?

We've signed way more than our share of recently-injured pitchers.

I'm done with injury-prone signings for a few more years.

I wonder if Mayer was discussed.

If Buehler didn't have those nice 10 IP in the WS, would we even be talking about him?

I could call him an okay #2. Taking his best sample size (2022-2024) out of 150 SP'ers with 200 IP: 35th in fWAR (7.5) Solid #2 69th xFIP (3.91) Almost a #3 (62nd in FIP-) 74th in K-BB% (15.3%) middle #3 80th in ERA- (97) Closer to a #4 than a #2. I'd say a tweener between a 2 and a 3, by the numbers.

The big three remaining, IMO, are Burnes, Bregman and Teoscar. What are the odds we get one? I won't ask about two. If we get one, what's the odds we add one from: Manaea, Flaherty, Pivetta, Scott, Hoffman, Santander? Maybe, the best we can hope for Burnes and Santander or Flaherty and Bregman.

It's the word "possible" before #1 starter that is the worry. He's been a RP'er since college. He's gone 65 IP, once. He's had major injuries. I like the deal, but there is plenty of reason for "worry," too.

I think we will try to extend him, quickly- like we did with other players we gave a big package up to obtain. Hell, he turns only 26 in June.

Pirates are listening to offers for Mitch Keller. He seems to be a decent #3, but I hope we do better than him.

Maybe, one time it will work. Paxton probably came the closest to actually almost helping the team for a brief moment or two. Now, let's see what Hendriks and Fulmer can do.

I am near certain, we try to extend Crochet, but he has to agree, AND more importantly, we have to offer something fair- something we often do, shortly after trading for someone, but not as often for long time Sox stars. Pedro was extended shortly after the trade. The Schilling trade included an agreed upon extension. (We later gave him $8M for one wasted year.) Beckett was extended. (Was extended a second time in 2010) I think Lowell was extended, too, but not right away. AGon was extended. Porcello was extended. Others with longer years of control when acquired were eventually extended, too, like Sale. We wish we would have extended Adrian Beltre.

Some early mock drafts have these players 13-15: 15-14-13 Bleacher report: Aiva Arquette Ore St, Devin Taylor. Eli Willits USA Today: Tre Phelps, Sean Gamble, Aiva Arquette Future Stars: Eli Willits, D Taylor, Ike Irish My MLB: Ike Irish, Brendon Summerhill MLB.com rankings: Cam Cannala, Ma Belyeu, Luke Stevenson

I'm not shy about trading prospects, even if we are spending, but I am more in the camp of trying to keep a strong farm from near ML readiness, to A+ and AA ball to the rookie leagues and Salem. Having a source of cheap players allows for more targeted spending.

That line-up is WS caliber. Bregman at 3B and Devers to share 1B, with Story at SS and Campbell/DHam at 2B makes us a top 10 D. Adding Crochet and Manaea, which pushed Crawford to the pen makes the rotation top 15 and the pen about the same or better, if we get by with few injuries. Adding Chapman, Crawford, Whitlock, Hendriks and Wilson to the pen should improve enough to offset losing Jansen & Martin.