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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    "around the start of ST'ing" sounds vague. Clearly, they need to be on the 40 during Rule 5. It's good to know that we could sign Grichuk or Robertson/jansen during ST'ing and not have to DFA someone.
  2. moonslav59
    I fully agree, but I think he might end up being our best option to close, especially if Slaten regresses. There are some closers who go 2 IP, at times. I think Miller did, a few times. I'd like Whitlock to pitch the 7th and 8th or 8th and 9th in some games- maybe every 3 days.
  3. moonslav59
    I googled it, and it say a player can be added, at any time.
  4. moonslav59
    I'm not happy with the amount of improvement we made, this winter, but I've always been much higher on pitching than most, and I'm stoked about our rotation and starter depth. I wish we had gotten a lockdown closer and big RHB, but I think we are better. I'm not hung up on how we ended the season playing poorly. I think our team played better than a .500 team, but the P number say we deserved 81-81.
  5. moonslav59
    I'm not "trying to find away around" data. Steamers has us below TOR. I've never valued them much at all, even when they had us doing better. I think our batters will improve more than regress in 2025. We have to make up for the loss of O'neill, but also EVladez, McGuire, Jansen, Reyes, DSmith, Cooper & Dalbec, who total more PAs than O'Neill. I look at who TOR added and their ages of key players, like Springer 35, Gausman & Bassitt 34. Why should we expect they improve? TOR did get better, and I admit I am no expert on players from other teams, so maybe I am undervaluing their improvement, but they finished in last place in 2024, and I think we got a lot better, despite losing our best batter vs LHPs.
  6. moonslav59
    Baseball Prospectus and Daveport have us ahead of TOR and TBR. Fangraphs has us 0.1 behind TBR in team WAR. Not all data has TOR better.
  7. moonslav59
    Really? I could have sworn teams could not do this. Why don't we do it, now, instead of trading guys like Shugart and Booser to make room for new players? I think Sandoval is a lock for the 60 day. Maybe Murphy could be added.
  8. moonslav59
    Of course, but as a group, I think it fair to expect a team with 12 out of 13 batters in pre-prime, peak prime or the end of prime, and the one guy outside of prime as a short-sided platoon guy, to do better than when they were younger. Only Duran had a career year. I don't count Abreu, because it was his first full year. Some may regress, but more should progress. Can you agree with that principle?
  9. moonslav59
    I look at where we finished in 2024, who TOR and BOS lost from 2024 and who we added, including returning healthy players that missed a lot of time in '24. TOR had a nice winter, but I think ours is better. Look at Crochet's data. Buehler's. Gio, Hendriks, Chapman and returning guys like Whitlock, Casas, Devers and even Story. There are a lot of services that make projections based on data. I have only seen one come up with team totals, so far. Are there others that show TOR better than us?
  10. moonslav59
    I don't disagree, but I also do not have high hopes for a guy (Hendriks) who has not pitched since 2022 and turns 36 in a couple weeks. I like Slaten, too, and I think Whitlock might end up being the best of the 4.
  11. moonslav59
    You can't place a player on the 60 Day IL, until opening day.
  12. moonslav59
    Maybe Sam think he is just a Grichuk, Campbell and Anthony away from fixing that "balance."
  13. moonslav59
    That has to be the plan, and honestly, I don't think it's a bad one. We have 3 top prospects- all ML ready or very close to it. I know prospects are no sure bet, but with 3, there is a very good chance 1-2 do well. There is always a chance, even a steady vet has an off year or gets hurt. Nothing is a guarantee in MLB. You try to put together the best team you can, on paper, and then see how they do. The good thing is, our weakest areas for hitting are middle IF and OF vs LHPs, only, and our top prospects play MI (Campbell 2B and Mayer SS) and OF (Anthony has good splits and Campbell bats RH'd.). Okay, Catcher is an issue, too, but not really at hitting.
  14. moonslav59
    The law of averages says player approaching prime, usually improve.
  15. moonslav59
    Maybe he feels like having 3 of the best ML ready prospects in America and the return of Casas is all the focus he needs on O. Maybe he feels like the return of Story to SS will leap us from bottom 5 to middle 10 on D. It's not like there is nothing to base improvement on. Almost every batter and defender we have on the 26 is moving towards prime, and going by age curve history, should get better. The ones that are not approaching peak prime are either in peak prime (Devers, Duran, Romy and Wong,) near the end of prime (Story & Yoshida) or showing no signs of letting up in their post prime (Refsnyder, who is a short-side platoon DH/LF'er.) It should be expected that our returning players, as a whole, do better in 2025 than 2024, and that is not even looking at returning players from injury, like Casas, Devers, Story, Yoshida and others with lesser injuries. (Yes, some will get hurt in 2025, but we lost a lot of our best batters in 2024, and some played hurt in many games.)
  16. moonslav59
    One set of data, yes.
  17. moonslav59
    He won't be signing a minor league deal, either.
  18. moonslav59
    Agreed, and if we had both, I'd start the year with Jansen as the closer. To me, it's a close call between Hendriks and Chapman. I even think Slaten or Whitlock could muscle their way into the closer role.
  19. moonslav59
    Last year, Abreu started 104 of 119 games when a RHP started (87%.) He started 6 out of 43 games when a lefty started (14%.) I expect about the same in 2025. I think Ref missed some time, and O'Nell did miss a lot of time, so maybe he would not have started that many (6) vs LHPs, had they been healthy. We'll see.
  20. moonslav59
    Exactly, and bad splits by Sox players in 2025 is not a sure thing, either. Casas is pretty good vs lefties, and Devers has had some very nice seasons vs lefties. Ref and Romy may not repeat their success, but I have more faith if Ref vs LHPs in '25 than O'Neill. Story is the wild card, along with Campbell & Anthony.
  21. moonslav59
    Being optimistic does not mean the team does well. I was very optimistic going into 2019. I was more optimistic in the winter before 2022 than I was before 2021's.
  22. moonslav59
    I guess my main issue with this is about relying exclusively on 2024 data, like that is the one driver in projecting future production. We have several players who have had great or decent success vs LHPs in very recent seasons- just not 2024. There is no reason to think some of them will have better 2025 seasons than 2024, especially Devers, Casas, Story & maybe Wong and Duran. As great as Duran looked in '24, his LH'er splits were better in '23- same with Wong. It is an issue and concerns me, a lot. I am pushing for a Grichuk signing to help ease the loss of O'Neill, but I also see that just about everyone did worse vs LHPs in '24 than previous seasons. Even ref had better recent seasons and w more PAs. Romy looks like the only guy with a career best season v lefties, and he did not play all that much. It's a worry, but we did get better in other areas- even way better with the rotation, that was not all that bad, to begin with.
  23. moonslav59
    Nope to both. (My opinion and my expectation)
  24. moonslav59
    Maybe more like a $4-4.5M/1 deal w bonuses.
  25. moonslav59
    I would not start him vs LHPs to begin the season. I'd use Refsnyder at corner OF as the starter v lefties. (Yoshida would be the FT DH.) Once we see how Abreu does, when he faces LH'd RP'ers, that might change, some. The arrival of Anthony or even playing Campbell in the OF might force the choice for us. I'd go: v RHPs: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RF v LHPs: Ref LF, Duran CF, Rafaela RF (in away games w shorter RF's, I'd flip Ref to RF, Duran to LF and Rafaela in CF.) Anthony has had decent splits in the minors, but rookies often struggle vs off-handed pitchers, out of the gate. He will not be added to the 40, until he's added to the 26 as a FT player or very near FT player. To me, he'd force an Abreu-Rafaela platoon. If Campbell is added as an OF'er, Rafaela would become the super utility guy or FT SS, if Story is out. (He could play some 2B, if Anthony is in the OF and Campbell not on the 26.)
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