moonslav59

With the Astros trading Tucker, they could really us a LH'd OF'er, and we have Abreu. The GM spoke, today and said they are not looking to trade Framber Valdez, but will listen. He's due about $18M, this year. I do not think we'll offer a trade for 1 year of Valdez, and working on a Crochet extension would likely rule out a Valdez extension, too. I don't see HOU looking to take Yoshida as part of a trade, but they do have some contracts, they'd like to unload. I'm not sure any fit Boston's needs, but some are pitchers: Ryan Pressly: $14M/1 (He is 34 and looks over-the-hill. I guess we could hope for a bounce back season at a position we need more than DH) Cristian Javier: $53M/3 owed (but just $12.8 on tax line) He turns 28, soon and used to be pretty good. He has a career 115 ERA+, but was out most of last year. Josh Hader $76M/4 ($19M x 4 and 19M on tax line.) He'd be a very nice closer, but is expensive. So is Yoshida, but why would HOU take Yoshida, unless we added pieces- more than Abreu for this guy. They also have Yordan Alvarez, who is best suited to DH. (Yoshida does not seem like a fit.) Lance McCullers $34M/2 would be a total salary dump ($17M AAV) Victor Caratini $6M/1 would be a nice back-up catcher, and the Astros have Yainer Diaz with 4 years of team control. Players the Sox would like, but are not on the block: Hunter Brown (4 yrs) Ronel Blanco (5 yrs) Arrighetti (5 yrs) Would HOU take Abreu & Yoshida for Javier? (Javier + Pressly or Caratini?) How about Abreu, Yoshida and Rafaela for Javier, Pressly & Caratini? Okay, no Yoshida: Abreu, Casas and Kelly or Fitts for Javier, Caratini & Hader plus cash? (How much cash?) These 3 contracts= $35.4M in '25 (all 3) $41M in '26 & '27 (Hader & Javier) and $19M in '28 (just Hader) The AAV would be $37.8 '25, $31.8 in '26 & '27 and $19 in '28. That's a lot of money, if Javier does not work out. We'd need HOU to pay something like $10M in '25 and $5M from "26-'28. That's $25M total. I don't know, if there is a fit, but I do think HOU would love Abreu and or Casas.

I think he might miss part of April. CBS says "ready for start of season" ESPN says Feb 1st,

It almost seems too good to be true. Something like Dobbins for Narvaez might be more reasonable. It would be nice, if he ends up better than Kelly.

Our advantage in extension talks is this: 1. Crochet is due about $3M for this winter's arb. Give him a hefty signing bonus and or start the extension in 2025 with significantly more than $3M. Let him start living the high life earlier than if he waits to free agency. (His arb, next year won't be a lot of money either.) 2. His lack of long term success and success as a SP'er is not a selling point. Sure, he can bet on himself and wait it out, but there has to be doubts. 3. His injury history is real and a concern, not just to us, but also to him and his agent. Signing an extension guarantees his family a sizeable legacy by taking the sure money. 4. Give him fair money for the 4-6 years beyond the two years of control. Don't short him, despite all of the above. Don't overpay, but don't pull a Lester. Let's say the fair rate is $27.5M/yr x 6. That's $165M + $3M arb +12M arb estimate comes to about $$180M/8. Offer $190M/8 and our AAV for taxes is just $23.75M. Even if we offer $200M/8, it's just $25M AAV.

I wanted Kelly, but not getting him is no big deal. Narvaez is a good defensive catcher, and we can find someone else, easily. Spend the money on pitching.

I think STL said no, but they may be rebuilding and he has 1 year left.

It's silly. Carson Kelly is not a significant target.

Are we really fretting over not getting Carson Kelly?

Soxprospects.com has the projected 26 man roster with 4 open slots for "acquisitions:" SP2 (Behind Crochet and ahead of Houck) Closer (with Hendriks and Chapman as the 8th inning guys) DH (with Yoshida starting the year on the IL) Back Up Catcher (with Narvaez starting the year in AAA) They have Campbell breaking camp as the starting 2Bman with DHam , Ref and Romy on the bench. Grissom, Mayer and Anthony are the notables placed in AAA. I think we'll get by without adding a DH and may go with Narvaez as the #2 catcher, but I hope we get a solid #1 or #2 SP'er and quality RP'er. Burnes and Estevez? Flaherty and Hoffman? Manaea and Scott? Trade for Casillo or Pablo Lopez or Jh Duran or Helsley?

I guess this Narvaez is the real deal on defense. After listening to the soxprospects.com podcast, I'm kind of excited. He's ML ready, cheap and has many years of team control. He hit 21 HRs in 627 ABs in AAA, so maybe we get some plus on O. (.247 BA but .371 OBP, but 196 Ks in 762 PAs is a bit scary.)

soxprospects.com was really talking up Narvaez on their podcast. They spoke of how Elmer Rodriguez was, at best, a RP'er who just "did not have the look" of a major leaguer." (Too skinny.) They think Narvaez might be top 30 to 35 on the next rankings. (Remember, 5 top 30 are gone.)

One thing that might get Crochett to sign an extension would be to give him more money on the front end than his arbs would get him- maybe even a big signing bonus. Starting it now would lower the overall AAV, which might help us down the line, but if the plan is to get close to the line, this year, maybe we want to wait to sign the extension, like we did with AGon, after that trade.

I heard the rumors of Casas to SEA are false. I also heard they are seeking a RHB 1Bman. Maybe some sort of 3 way deal can be worked out, but if it's for a SEA pitcher, it will be Castillo- not Miller or Woo. Time to move on to other names.

I never said we'd extend him at under $20M AAV. I'm putting the odds over 50-50 that we extend him mid April- probably earlier. We don't trade that package for 4 years. We never have.

The age and injury recovery factors are real and concerning, but to me, he has been dealing with injuries, a lot, already, so I would not say he'll be any worse over this latest injury. I think he was playing hurt for a while, so maybe in 2025, he won't be. Expecting age 32 to be better than 30 and 31 is not really logical. I think I just saw some nice stretches and felt like he could do it for 5-6 months, and not just 3.

HOU has been out of the Bregman racfor weeks. Their final offer was something like $156M.

Kluber and Richards were "healthy," too. I'd like to see more evidence that a guy is over an injury than 10 IP. Look, I understand getting a guy who seems very durable can backfire... lik Gio did, but I'm just tired of these type of additions, usually made to save a buck anot have to commit long term. I see how this is different from hendriks, Fulmand Paxton, who were on the IL when signed, and we knew they miss months to start the deal, but it's a personal thing: I'm hoping we add a durable and dependable SP, and it workout better than Gio did.

Agreed. The Cubs are about to get Tucker.

That's not going to change. I think his ceiling is an .800 to .825 OPS, but he has not done that for even 3 months in a row, yet, so maybe I am just wishing.

We need a pitcher on the healthy side of the spectrum. Our staff is already to have Whitlock, Giolito, Hendriks, Fulmer, Crochett, and Slaten missed some time, too.

Give me some of that advanced metric stuff!

The Cubs and Astros have been in talks on a trade that would send star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith

Hmmmm. I have to admit, I don't know enough about Gil to have a strong opinion on this idea.

Flaherty might not have a long record of success, but he just turned 29, so a 5 year deal goes just to year 33.

Wow! This is very telling.