moonslav59

Bloom did leave Brez with a foundation that was heavy on quantity and prospects to work with and trade for higher quality. STL is doing way better than expected after making several "rebuild" trades,

How about some insurance runs?

Unlike Bloom, who was likely hired to find "gems in the rough" as I called it, Brez has found several. OPS Against last 4 weeks (before today) .425 Gamboa .426 Olds .446 Miller (not "in the rough.") .450 Burgos .571 Guerrero .588 Moran .622 Tolle .646 Slaten .675 Gray (not in the rough) .698 Bennett All Brez adds.

All season, too.

We need Guerrero to be on top of his game, which has been very impressive this season. Kinda out of nowhere. OPS Against by Sox pitchers with 150+ PAs Against: .531 Whitlock .573 Guerrero .585 Chapman .589 Moran (more PAs Against than the 3 above him) .610 Bennett .642 Suarez .644 Tolle .683 Gray .707 Weissert

He could get zero over the rest of the season. It's not a repeatable skill.

We've had a few fortuitous stretches from our SS depth chart. Maybe's Mono's has run its course. I'd go with Sogard at SS and Seigler/Story at 2B, but it will end up being Story at SS and Siegler/Sogard at 2B.

I'm not counting on much from players returning from injuries, and many may never play a game this year. Some points about some injuries: Forget Casas and Kelly. No room for them, anyway. Crawford's status has not been updated since July 17th. What's up with that? Back then, MLB.com reported he was throwing from 100 feet and his ETA was "September at earliest." Oviedo's last update was July 21st, when he was throwing off the mound. Same ETA as Crawford. Houck will pitch in scrimmage on Sept 1st in Fort Myers. ETA: possible late season. (I doubt we see him in 2026.) Yoshida is likely done for 2026. ETA is possible end of season or PS. Slaten is throwing from 120 feet but has not been on the mound, yet. ETA: September. (Not counting on him returning in time to help) Mead has started "mobility and strength exercises and is running and throwing," but not hitting yet. ETA: Late season or 2027. (Count on zero for '26) IKF is in rehab and playing. ETA Sept 1st or later. May not be room for him, and he is out of options. Story is the big question. He is rehabbing and likely "ready to return," but is doing so poorly on offense, I'm not sure he is ready. ETA: late AUG/early Sept. Crochet is not listed on MLB.com for some reason, but ESPN says he's throwing with intensity fro 90 feet. CBS says "out until Sept 11th." Anthony offers the best hope for a meaningful return. He has been in rehab for a while. ETA: late AUG/early Sept.

Can Bennett give us one more inning? He's at 75 pitches.

I think we needed both. Narvaez has been even worse than .535 with BOS (.295 w BAL,) and Wong is not very good on defense and inconsistent on offense. If Rut was raking, we'd be saying this is what we needed. I think it was a good stab at boosting the offense- just as getting Mead was. I totally agree on the "shoulda added a SP'er" point... just not instead of a catcher. BTW, Wong is at .671 since the trade and .572 in his last 15 games. We needed a bat, and Catcher was our weakest area on offense- this year and going into 2027. We just need Rutschman to start hitting just .725 or better. If he can hit .800+ we will see things differently.

Yes, Olds demoted.

"Clutch" is not a skillset. It's not repeatable.

I've mentioned this before, but not after the Early for Mead trade. Our pitching on the farm has taken a major hit due to promotions/graduations and trades. Several trades were pitchers for pitchers, but the net result seemed to be trading away more than we got back- hopefully more like quantity for better quality. (Bennett & Gray jump to mind, but several RP'ers, too.) I've always been big on improving pitching with a focus more on quality than quantity. I often said "rebuild the rotation from the top not at the 4-5 slots." That being said, the lack of top pitching prospects might not be as scary as it looks. Here is why: years of control of perhaps enough quality pitchers to keep the need of outside acquisitions rather low. Maybe that can help us use our resources to try and add a big bat, but I think Mead and Anthony might be enough. 5 years: Crochet, Tolle & Bennett 4 years: Suarez & Bello 2 years: Crawford 1 year: Houck & Oviedo FAs: Gray & Sandoval Minors: Burgos, Rivera (non 40: Wehunt, Paez, Holobetz, Ziehl, Phillips, Brown, Futrell, Monegro) IMO, we need to be 10 deep at SP'ers to have decent depth. This is 8 deep, in theory. Maybe Gray agrees to come back for 1 more year. He may demand 2 years and get it somewhere. Maybe we get by with Wehunt & Paez or Burgos & Rivera. Maybe not. Maybe we want Houck and or Crawford in the pen, so we'd need a SP'er add or two, but we can probably get by without SP'er prospect infusion for a few years. I'm not sure how many promising, far-away pitching prospects we have in the system but here is what we have: MLB ready: Rivera ETA 1-2 years: Wehunt 25 Paez 22 Holobetz 24 Ziehl 23 Monegro 23 Phillips 22 Brown 22 Other '26 draftees: Devenport, Lanman, Adetuyl, Volmerding (Futrell 23, Mullins 26, Finley & Mayers 22) Far-Away (2-3+ years): Valera (20) Delzine (18) LaFavor (18) Cason (20) Not too impressive, at all. That's putting it mildly, but Brez has shown he can add pitchers of quality with a good rate of success. Yes, he gave up Sale, Harrison, Drohan and Priester, but he had previously added Harrison & Priester, too.) His adds have been Gray, Bennett, Suarez, Tolle, Sandoval, Oviedo, Fitts, Newcomb, Criswell, Buehler, DMay (a year too early?) Some added then subtracted besides Harrison & Priester: Eyanson, Witherspoon, Fajardo, Clarke, Aita

I was kind of surprised when soxprospects.com had Oviedo listed as the 4th or 5th starter for much of the early and min winter months. The reason I put him there is because I see Houck as a RP'er going forward- maybe Crawford too. I do think Houck or Crawford would be better 5th starters, but I worry more about their health than Oviedo's for whatever reason. The Sox must have liked him to make that trade.

They both have options, so this is about the 26. Yes, I think Houck was a great pitcher. He was our ace before the Crochet trade. I think the dip in performance in the second half of 2024 and the start of 2025 was related to his injury. (I could certainly be wrong.) He had extremely nasty stuff without the way-to-high BB/9 rates many nasty stuff pitchers often do. I'm probably wishful thinking about him and 2027, but I think he could be great in the pen to finish his career. He may also be our 5th starter over Oviedo and Crawford. From the start of 2020 to June 10, 2024 Houck had the 18th best ERA- and 27th best ERA in MLB. (300+ IP sample size of 144 pitchers) He had 54 GS and 33 RP games in that span. Many pitchers had double the IP, but the guy pitched like a top 30 pitcher, IMO. I'm not sure he can ever get back to that, but I'm pretty sure Weissert and several others can never do that.

B-R under Duran's batting splits shows he has 12 RBI in the 9th and 5 in extra innings. I'm not sure where you find league leaders.

I'd PH for Duran vs a LHP every time the game is on the line.

The Yanks playing THUR night and the Sox not could give us an edge. I think we'll see... gm 1 Bennett v Rodan gm 2 Opener> Bello vs Fried Sunday Suarez v Warren

10th in MLB fWAR but his plate discipline is more important. He's even top 3rd in batting: 113 wRC+ is 82nd out of 273 batters with 250+ PAs (9 players per team) .778 OPS is 81st 5th in DRS among all position players in MLB. (Abreu is #1.) Somehow being 9th worst in BB/K makes him a bad offensive player.

That was an arguable slot I put him in.

Very tough loss, but nice pitching.

#4-#5, yes.

Speaking of 26 and 40 man rosters, I don't see a major crunch with the 40, but the 26 could get tricky, if our IL numbers are down next year. Of course someone will be hurt, and maybe even some of the guys already on the 60 day IL, but here is a look see at the 2027 "foundation." Current 40 Man Roster Players (options remaining) 7 SP'ers: Crochet 3, Suarez 0, Tolle 3, Bennett 3, Oviedo 1, Houck 2, Crawford 2, Burgos 3 9 RP'ers: Chapman, Whitlock 3, Miller 3, Bello 2, Slaten 3, Guerrero 0, Moran 0, Weissert 1, Kelly 1, Samaniego 3, E Rivera 3, A Gamboa 3, Olds 3 Since Guerrero, Moran & Suarez are sure bets to make to 26, having no options does not complicate the pitching decisions. These 21 pitchers could easily become 19 by DFA'ing Olds & Burgos. Rivera, Gamboa & Samaniego- maybe even Kelly could be "bubble" players- traded or DFA'd. Replacing Gray will be tough, and maybe we bring him back, but it's likely we will add a good pitcher- maybe two. The everyday player choices could get complicated, but with the 26 not necessarily they 40. Plus, we can always trade a middle infielder or a LF'er from Duran, Jones & White. Here is that foundation: 23 players C: Rutschman 3, Wong 1, Gasper 2 1B: Contreras 0, Romy 2, Casas 3, Harris 1 2B: Mead 0, Monasterio 2, Seigler 2 3B: Durbin 2, Eaton 1, SS: Story 0, Sogard 2, Cheng 1 LF: Duran 2, Jones 0 CF: Rafaela 2, White 0 RF: Abreu 2, Campbell 2 DH: Anthony 3, Yoshida 3 Harris and maybe one from White or Jones can be cut loose, easily. That gets it to 21, Duran and Yoshida will be trade talked to death once again. Cheng, Eaton and Casas are bubble. With no additions and no injuries, my 26 would be: 5 SP'ers: Crochet 3, Suarez 0, Tolle 3, Bennett 3, Oviedo 1 8 RP'ers: Chapman, Whitlock 3, Miller 3, Bello 2, Houck 2, Slaten 3, Guerrero 0, Moran 0 C: Rutschman 3, Wong 1 1B: Contreras 0 2B: Mead 0, Monasterio 2 or Romy 2 3B: Durbin 2 SS: Story 0, Sogard 2 LF: Duran 2, Jones 0 or White 0 (not both) CF: Rafaela 2 RF: Abreu 2, DH: Anthony 3 AAA notables: Crawford 2, Weissert 1, Kelly 1, Samaniego 3, E Rivera 3, A Gamboa 3, Gasper 2, Campbell 2, Yoshida 3, Casas 3, Seigler 2, Eaton 1, Cheng 1, Monasterio 2 or Romy 2

Thanks for the clarification.

Yes, but they could have just waited to Sept 1st, if they are thinking about demoting him. (Hint: they are not.)