moonslav59

Fire Brez, NOW!!!!

You've made zero convincing arguments at why other teams are or got better.

We can see, today, why pitching is going to carry us, this year! 😜

The homer numbers are based on top PA projections and I rounded up by 5's

The O's had "an off year" for a reason. Their management team has been 10X worse than the one you say should be fired. They failed to add anybody of note, before 2025 and let Burnes , Santander and others go. It's not like they lost due to bad luck and excessive injuries. Yes, Henderson dropped 100 points in OPS, but why are so sure the 2024 Gunnar was the real deal? The O's got big years from Laureano and O'Hearn, as well as a pretty good season from Dylan Beaver & Westburg. You expect these guys and Alonso and other replacements to gain 22 games from 2025? Trevor Rogers did a good job replacing Burnes and Kremer did about the same as 2024. They swapped out Grayson Rodrigues for the 80 year old Bassitt and added a closer (Helsley) who had an off season in '25, and again, you suddenly find enormous optimism for these guys. Oh, and BTW, Westburg is out until at least May with a UCL tear, and Jackson Holliday will start the year on the IL with a hamate bone fracture. Such an lovely and lofty outlook based on murky waters.

The guy had 679 PAs and his second best OPS in his career in 2025. His last two seasons saw him reach his top 2 career seasons in PAs. You sound like you expect a better season and more PAs from the soon to be 34 year old big guy. Again, why so much optimism over non Sox players?

I can just imagine Fred's outlook, if he was a Sox pitcher coming back from that. We also have Crawford, Sandoval, who missed all of 2025, and others like Slaten, Abreu & others who missed lesser amounts of time in '25. Of course, the Yanks had a lot of other injuries in 2025, as they almost always do. Sandoval & Crawford were pretty damn good back in 2023, too, and they aren't even projected to make our rotation. Sure, they aren't Cole, but as 5-6 SP'ers their impact might be greater than his, especially, if Cole doesn't return until early June and struggles to regain even 75% of his form. Crawford + Sandoval might have 70-80 IP combined by early June.

Eaton is eatin' up Jays pitching!

Actually, they lost Bichette and added Okamoto: we lost Bregman & Lowe and added Contreras & Durbin. (We also lost Ref and gained IKF.)

The last time Cole was the ace of the Yanks was the year Crawford was our ace. Guess who returns to the Sox, this year? Okay, seriously, yes, Cole is a big addition to a formidable returning team, but he starts the year on the IL, along with Rodon & Schmidt. We all have seen how that works out for countless Sox SP'er beginning the year on the IL with promises of returning to form during the season, but I'm not sure why you are able to find an ounce of optimism in the dark confines of your mind for a Yankee. So be it. I do think the Yanks look better, assuming equal health to both teams. I guess my thought is that the younger team should likely have less injuries, and we no longer have Gio, Hendriks, Houck and others as part of our 2026 plans. 38 Goldschmidt 36 Stanton, Hill 35 Cole & Cruz 34 Yarbrough 33 Judge & Rodon 32 Fried 31 Bednar & McMahon 30 Bellinger, Bird The Yanks have 4 key players at 33 or older (same as the Sox, but Cole Judge and Rodon might be their top 3 key players.) They have 4 key players between 30-33, as the Sox have one. They have a total of 8 key players at 30 or older to the Sox 5. See below. Most of their key players are on this list. Now look at the Sox over 30 players: 37 Chapman 36 Gray 33 Contreras & Story 32 Yoshida 31 Weissert 30 Suarez, IKF, Kelly Sox: 4 key players at 33+ and 1 at 30-32. (5 total) Age is not the only factor involved in projecting injury, but it is a huge factor in projecting decline- sometimes sharp declines. Watch and weep.

The Jays added Cease (4.55 ERA in 170 IP) but lost Bassitt (3.96 ERA in 170 IP). Your negativity disappears for other teams. The Jays added Okamoto but lost Bichette (.840 OPS in 2025.) If Okamoto hits .840, Yoshida should hit .830. To be fair, the Jays also added Ponce and Tyler, but Bieber is already going to the IL on opening day, Gausman is 35 and Berrios turns 32 in May. (Cease is 30.) Springer turns 37 late in the season.

Especially since Sweet is projected to be our closer.

Unsweetened Devin.

I'll join the 67 Club in a few months, and I feel like I aged 5 years in the past year. Does that count as 70?

Pythagorean 2025 wins: 97 NYY 92 BOS (You admit they got slightly better.) 88 TOR 70 BAL (88 SEA & DET, 83 HOU, 82 CLE) What's your take on what other teams projections are and why so many improve by enough to overtake or stay ahead of the Sox. We know what you think of the Red Flops, but why are other teams better? (Be specific.)

I usually wait until a day or two before opening day to project the Sox players' season numbers, but here it goes: PAs Player OPS (Assuming good health to all) 700 Anthony .875 (25 HRs) 675 Duran .790 (15 HRs & 25 SB) 650 Contreras .800 (25 HRs) 650 Story .730 (20 HRs & 20 SBs) 650 Abreu .800 (30 Hrs) 625 Durbin .750 (15 HRs & 25 SBs) 625 Rafaela .720 (15 Hrs & 20 SBs) 500 Mayer .740 (15 HRs) 450 Narvaez .725 (15 HRs) 400 IKF .675 (Great D) 350 Romy .800 (Platoon) 250 Yoshida .780 (Hard to predict PA total) 200 Wong .675 (Uptick projected here) 200 Monasterio .690 100 Sogard .690 __________________ IP Pitcher ERA 200 Crochet 2.75 (Top 3 Cy Young vote) 180 Gray 4.00 (IP is questionable) 170 Suarez 3.30 (Has never had 160 IP) 160 Bello 4.00 (Hardest to project) 120 Oviedo 4.20 (Stab in the dark) 100 Sandoval 4.20 100 Crawford 4.20 ??? Early & Tolle ??? 70 Whitlock 2.50 65 Chapman 2.00 65 Slaten 2.75 65 Weissert 3.00 55 Watson 3.75 50 Moran 3.90 40 Kelly 4.20 I might do an updated version near opening day.

And somehow, that's 4th place.

You missed.... eerrrr wait.....we all missed any comment on Rafaela's big hit, today.

Good to see Bello looking sharp. 🤪

70 wins would take near season-long injuries to 5 or 6 of our best 8-9 players.

I may adjust by the stat of the season, but as of now, I see this... 91 NYY 90 BOS 87 TOR 86 BAL 92 SEA, 87 DET, 85 CLE, 84 HOU, 81 TEX

I noticed fangraphs projects a 2.1 fWAR for Durbin. They project Contreras as 2.2. Here are some selected projections: 2B/3B: 4.5 KMarte, 3.9 Bichette, 3.8 Bregman. 3.7 Neto, 3.4 Hoerner, 3.1 Donovan 3.0 Semien, 2.9 CJ Abrams, 2.8 G Torres & Devers, 2.7 E Tovar, 2.6 Keaschall 2.5 Meidroth, 2.4 Paredes. 2.3 B Stott, 2.2 Okamoto, R lewis 2.2 2.1 Durbin, A Bohm, 2.0 Murakami. 1.8 Polanco, 0.6 M Shaw Basically, Durbin fell about 1.6 short of Bregman, 1.3 short of Neto and 1.0 from Donovan. He's almost even to Paredes, Okamoto & Bohm. He looks better than Polanco, Shaw & E Suarez. 1B/DH: 2.7 Schwarber & Alonso, 2.5 Yandy Diaz. L Arraez 2.3 2.2 Contreras 2.1 Rooker, 1.3 E Suarez It looks like Contreras is not too far (0.6) from Alonso & Schwarber, but his defense probably helped him close the gap. He does look like a better choice than E Suarez.

If we hit a reasonable 90 wins, then "at best 4th place" is nearly impossible.

I noticed fangraphs projects a 2.1 fWAR for Durbin. They project Contreras as 2.2. Here are some selected projections: 2B/3B: 4.5 KMarte, 3.9 Bichette, 3.8 Bregman. 3.7 Neto, 3.4 Hoerner, 3.1 Donovan 3.0 Semien, 2.9 CJ Abrams, 2.8 G Torres & Devers, 2.7 E Tovar, 2.6 Keaschall 2.5 Meidroth, 2.4 Paredes. 2.3 B Stott, 2.2 Okamoto, R lewis 2.2 2.1 Durbin, A Bohm, 2.0 Murakami. 1.8 Polanco, 0.6 M Shaw 1B/DH: 2.7 Schwarber & Alonso, 2.5 Yandy Diaz. L Arraez 2.3 2.2 Contreras 2.1 Rooker, 1.3 E Suarez

I think Cora's line-up choices give us a look at his intentions. I think we see this as the general template, but maybe some tweaks are made for L-R starters. 1. L Anthony 2. R Story 3. L Duran 4. R Contreras 5. L Abreu 6. R Durbin After this it gets murky, but he seemed to like Narvaez, last year. I'll go with... 7. R Narvaez 8. L Mayer (R Romy) 9. R Rafaela