To me, the Rays seem like the hardest team to figure out, with the Tigers being a close second. (Well, maybe the Sox are first.)
For some reason, the Rays almost always outperform Pythagorean, and this year is no different. They are 7 games over Pyth. They are 6 up on the Sox. Do the math!
Couple this with the Sox being 5 games under Pyth, and we could be looking at the Sox being 6 games up on the Rays, and tied with the Yanks for first in the ALE.
I'm not crying over us "deserving" to be in first place, but we do seem like a better team than our record, while the Rays seem to win with smoke and mirrors.
Here is a comp of the remaining schedules after this weekend series:
BOS: 4 at NYY, 3 at TBR, 3 CHC, 3 CLE, 3 at MIA, 3 at TEX,4 at BAL, 3 SEA, 3 KCR, 3 LAA- This is by no means an easy schedule, but 9 v SEA, KCR and LAA are games we should be faves in 8 or 9 of them. 12 v CLE, TEX, BAL & MIA are not easy. The 7 games against TBR and NYY hold the key, and all are on the road. However, the Sox have been very good away, and the Yanks are not so great at home. (The Rays are.) The 3 ames vs the Cubs will be a challenge
NYY: 4 TBR, 4 BOS, 3 HOU, 3 at SDP, 3 at AZ, 3 at MN, 3 BAL, 3 at LAA, 3 NYM, 3 COL - The Yanks get to play the 8 games vs BOS and TRB at home and have 3 seemingly very easy series. 15 v others is hard to project. To me, the Yanks are harder to catch than the Rays- see below...
TBR: 4 at NYY, 3 BOS, 3 HOU, 3 SDP, 3 at ATL, 3 at PHI, 3 at DET, 3 at TEX, 3 NYM & 6 v A's- Tey have the 9 games vs the A's and Mets, but WOW! Look at the rest- all difficult to extremely 25 difficult games. The Jays, today makes 26.
It won't be easy, but I like our chances, this year. Fangraphs WS odds:
9.0 NYY
8.4 TBR
7.0 BOS
4.3 SEA, 3.0 OU, 2.2 CLE, 1.9 CWS
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NL
26 LAD
12 MIL
8 PHI
6 ATL
5 CC