moonslav59

He certainly did Song no good. BTW, he's Rule 5 eligible again, this December.

You are the one using 2 year old data as your foundation. Why is it up to me to verify your foundation? I'll do one cursory calculation for you based on old and questionable data. We are at $266M, now. 265/574 is now $46.3%. That would put us at #16 in MLB. Right smack in the middle. Not high and not low.

Yes. Just say this a thousand times, and you'll be even with your "JH never spends" or "JH won't open his wallet." The way I see it, JH went way too long spending so little, that by a lot spending now, it is deceiving. He's barely got us to where we were 7-8 years ago, without factoring in inflation and the massive upticks in spending by a few teams at the top. He HAS spent a lot in the last 2 years. That's a fact that cannot be denied. He may have spent more on winter spending in the last two winters than any back-to-back winters in Sox history. Yes, the context I mentioned is important, but saying he's "not spending" is just not true. The issue is that he got us to such a low point in spending that he needed to do even more spending to get us where we needed to be to be a top 4-5 contender. (I think we got close: we maybe be a top 6-10 contender, depending on who is doing the projections.)

It's at least two years old, and we don't know how accurate that one data source was when they said what they said. We've added a big chunk of spending since 2024. So have some others, but mostly by just a handful of teams thatw ere already ahead of us. In 2024, we were 23rd ranked at 42.1%. We were just 0.8% from the middle tier (42.9% for #20 STL and 7.8% from 49.7% for #11 NYY) We were 7.8% from top 10 (BAL at 49.9%.) This was two years ago. cots had us at $226 AAV in 2024 and $266 for 2026. Do the math, and we should insist Fredd give us the 2026 numbers, if he wants to make this the central point of his case.

Broken record. You make this the number one issue, so you tell us. Stop saying JH does not spend, when he may have added more salary than any other team, this winter. You can make a valid point without saying something false over and over.

We didn't sign Gray- we traded for him. So, what lane did you pick? I assume you wanted a big bat over Suarez & IKF (like Alonso for about the same AAV.) That means it's on Brez and not the "low spending" by JH.

Nice post. Let's say Tolle, Valera & Delzine have a 20% chance of becoming a #1 or #2, and Early, Witherspoon & Phillips have a 10% chance. Maybe Eyanson, Bennett and someone else have a 5% chance. The odds come to 49% one of the top 3 guys becomes a 1-2, 27% one of the 10% guys becomes a 1-2 and 14% one of the three 5% guys makes it that high. Add them up, and the chances are pretty good we get one or maybe two.

A look at the OF on the farm... #7 Justin Gonzales (may play 1B) #16 Bleis (IMO over-rated) #17 Cespedes (listed at 2B, also over-rated) #18 Azocar (19 yrs old) #20 Castro (the last of the over-rated trio) #23 Rivas (17 yrs old) #25 Taylor (22 at A+) #33 Silverio (DSL) #37 Y Rod AA #49 I Jackson (Grissom trade) #55 A Fermin (A-) There is some promise here, and a little bit of depth, but not a highly rated OF group. The good thing is, we have 3 OF'ers locked up for 4+ years plus Duran.

A look at corner infield on the farm... 1B: #7 Justin Gonzales may end up as an OF'er but with his size, I'm thinking 1B might be his final landing spot. He's only 19 and should begin the season in A+. Lots of potential. 3B: #12 Romero might be the best hope at 3B, at least in the upper minors. It's hard to know which SSs could end up at 3B. The only other top 60 prospects listed at 1B or 3B are: 43 Nunez A+ (SS) 46 Brooks Brannon AA (C/1B) 53 Jostin Ogando (FCL) 56 Jhorman Bravo FCL (Utility) Not much depth. Here are the projected corner IF roster slots: AAA Sogard/Hickey/Seigler 1B, Romero/McDonough 3B AA: Brannon/Tyler Miller 1B, Liendo/Stanley Tucker 3B A+: Anderson/ F Encarnacion 1B, Nunez 3B A-: Ortiz, Jimenez 1B, Winnay, Hodge 3B FCL: Brito, Mambel 1B, Bravo 3B

They are ultra-conservative on giving out those projections, but to me, we have so many promising pitching prospects with a lot of upside potential that one or two are almost certainly going to become a solid #2 or a decent #1, at some point. They state that Valera has the "early makings of a potential high-end starting pitching prospect." Delzine "high upside arm" and significant potential that "is potentially the best for any Red Sox IFA pitcher in recent history." (I wonder if that goes back to Anderson Espinoza signed in 2014.) Phillips "high-ceiling right hander with a wide range of outcomes." (Kinda wishy-washy but not closing the door on his chances.) They do say Tolle has a "ceiling of a number two starter, but even that may be light." They claim Early has the ceiling of a "quality 3rd starter" and a "high-floor, lower-ceiling profile.) They say the same about Eyanson with the "high-floor, low-ceiling" comment. Witherspoon "mid rotation upside." Bennett "potential back-end starter."

I think he walks more batter than DHern used to walk.

I think DD saw something in Song when he first got him w the Sox, and took a flyer. I'm glad we got Song back, but how far down is he on the pen depth chart, now? It's hard to know how many SP'ers are on the pen depth chart (Sandoval, Crawford, Tolle, Early, Uberstine, Sikkema, Gamboa, Bennett...) but soxprospects.com has the AAA chart like this: Samaniego (assumed the closer) Devin Sweet & Seth Martinez (8th inning) Tayron Guerrero before Song (7th inning)

Good points, but neither can be viewed as a long term solution if Contreras hits a long IL stint, and Casas is not ready. (Also, Casas should be a DH only player.)

AAV added to the Red Sox, this winter... $41M (-20M paid by STL) Gray $26M Suarez (5 year deal) $21M (-$4M paid by STL) Contreras $6M IKF One could argue the $18M/2 spent on Sandoval last winter was all about 2026. That's $94M added ($112M if Sandoval added) $70M if you subtract what STL is paying ($98M w Sandy.) To say JH has not spent is most absurd. Then, add the two major extensions that kicked in: $16M Anthony $8M Campbell $94M or $112M w Sandy $118M or $132M counting the STL's payments. I'm not even sure the Dodgers spent this amount, this winter.

Didn't you already agreed with the statement that had Brez spent the Gray and IKF money on a big bat, it would have been a good winter? So, is it JH not spending enough or Brez not spending it wisely? Pick a lane.

A look at the middle infielders on the farm with some quotes from soxprospects,com... #2 Franklin Arias: should be a good defensive SS. Potential everyday regular at shortstop. Ceiling of a quality regular who provides value with his glove and contact ability. Hit tool is a standout tool, but lack of power and speed limits upside. Defensive profile provides him a solid floor. High baseball IQ; actively seeks to learn more and improve. Needs to get stronger and continue to physically mature to reach his potential. #8 Dorian Soto: has strong arm and could end up at 3B. He has raw power that is "advanced for his age." Very intriguing prospect with a high-upside offensive profile. Ideal frame with solid athleticism and plenty of remaining projection. Strong makeup and work ethic and is reportedly already getting better. Long-term defensive home remains to be seen, but should be able to stick in the infield and provide plenty of value at the plate. #11 Henry Godbout: probably just an average defender at 2B. Not much power, but some when he "pulls" the ball. Right-handed hitter with a contact-over-hit profile. Elite contact skills. Fits the mold of college bats the Red Sox have targeted and elevated in recent drafts. Strong candidate for their bat speed program and has a frame of someone who should hit for more power than he showed at Virginia. If he can add bat speed and hit the ball harder more consistently without sacrificing much contact, could develop into an intriguing middle infield prospect. #12 Mikey Romero: first round pick in 2022. Fringe defender at 2B. Potential bat-first utility player. Ceiling of a second division regular at second base. Showed more power than expected while sacrificing contact in 2024, but came to camp in 2025 showing much more contact ability without sacrificing any power. Needs to continue to show that tightened-up approach and that he can make consistent contact to reach his potential as his chase rate remains high. Has moved down the defensive spectrum in the high-minors already and is not a guarantee to stick in the infield. Pressure on bat increases as he moves down the defensive spectrum. Hard worker who has struggled to stay on the field consistently throughout his career. #17 Yoeilin Cespedes: might end up in LF or at DH. Potential bat-first utility player, but is a high-variance prospect with considerable risk. Ceiling of an everyday regular. Will show intriguing offensive tools and upside at the plate, but needs to improve pitch recognition and approach to reach his offensive potential and his defensive profile lags behind. Very unlikely to stick at shortstop long-term, putting more pressure on his bat as he moves down the defensive spectrum. Not a lock to stick in the infield. Was one of the most advanced hitters in the DSL in 2023, with scouts expressing confidence in his long-term offensive upside, and carried that performance over to the FCL in 2024 prior to his injury. #22 Hector Ramos Solid athlete. Switch-hitter who has shown feel for hit from both sides of the plate already. Solid contact skills with average power potential, mostly to the pull side. Average speed. Defensively, has above-average potential at shortstop, where he is already reliable. Strong, accurate arm. Strong work ethic and will get the most out of tools. Loves to play baseball and already shows leadership qualities. #28 Conrad Cason: is a pitcher, too and may move to OF. High-risk, high-reward player who will be developed, initially at least, as a two-way player. Most scouts prefer him on the mound, but impressed at the plate and in the field, especially at the draft combine. Has standout athleticism in either role and strong, loose arm. On the mound has a three-pitch mix with impressive velocity and at the plate has a solid approach and some developing power and profiles up the middle, whether it be at shortstop or in center field. #34 Dawvris Brito: May stick at SS. Athletic right-handed hitter with five-tool potential. Wide-range of outcomes given his age and the amount of projection left in his frame, but the type of player you want in your system because if things click he has considerable upside. #38 Mason White: may move to OF eventually. Potential bat-first infielder whose upside will be determined by how his hit tool develops. Checks a lot of boxes with what the Red Sox look for in players with his ability to impact the baseball. Extremely quick hands, hits the ball hard consistently, and can elevate to the pull side. Approach and contact skills are both works in progress, creating a wide amount of variance in his hit tool. If he hits, has MLB regular upside. Not likely to add a ton of value on defense, but also will not hurt a team there and could develop positional versatility. Others: 42 Marvin Alcantara, 43 Starlyn Nunez, 50 Maximus Martin By Level: AAA: 2B Vinny Capra, SS T-C Cheng (3B/2B Romero) Ferguson, McDonough, Seigler AA: 2B Alcantara, SS Arias, Fraymi de Leon A+: 2B Godbout, SS White (3B Nunez) Freili Encarnacion A-: 2B Cespedes, SS Pinto, Ty Hodge FCL: 2B Ramos, SS Soto

62% chance one of 3 get a chance. It's 27.5% chance for each guy up.

Yup.

Wong is not an issue as a back-up catcher. We could do better, but he's established with the staff. I think he'll hit better than 2025 but not as well as 2024. His defense has improved. Our back-up at 1B may be a bigger issue, especially if Casas & Romy do not get healthy. I like our bench, except for the Masa misfit. Two left-handed DHs with one who can't play any position well is not ideal.

Starling Marte signs with KCR for $78M/4.

It was Max Ferguson with the Granny. He's 6-1.

Some interesting names, but after about #10-12 it all looks kinda fungible, anyway. My currents top 25: 1. Early 2. Tolle 3. Witherspoon 4. Valera 5. Arias 6. Gonzales 7. Phillips 8. Bennett 9. Soto 10. Godbout 11. Eyanson 12. Holobetz 13. Delzine 14. Jo. Garcia (my dark horse) 15. Ramos 16. Rivas 17. Cason 18. Watson 19. Mullins 20. Azocar 21. Uberstine 22. Romero 23. Taylor 24. Samaniego 25. Ziehl/Silverio Out of top 25 or even 30: Bleis, Cespedes, Castro

It took 6 innings to shut out these powerful Red Sox bats!

You have to keep the opps guessing. Doing something every time is counterproductive.