moonslav59

I understand. I think Beni would be happy to start in the 6 or 7 slot everyday, and he';d be happier still to be moved up to 1 or 2 vs righties only. I'd prefer to bat 1 or 2 vs righties and 7th vs lefties than 6th everyday.

Question for Moon Swihart has 1 year 133 days of service.....will a September call up keep him below 2 years service and give the Sox 5 more years beginning 2018? Nick, I'm not expert on years of service and years of team control determinations. I do think that if we can gain another year of team control for Swi, it would be a factor in the timing of a possible call-up. Persdnally, I think Vaz and Leon deserve to make the 25 man roster and then show they belong there. Swi is not the only one with something to prove. Let all three play things out and see where the dust settles this year. Also for a catcher, will Swihart get better defensively playing all the time in the minors or can he get better with major league ball club with limited number of games behind the plate. My question is can he get better on his off days at the major league level practicing? I think, yes, but I think playing everyday in AAA is a better way to improve. I like Swihart alot and think he may play into a C/DH role by June or July. Is catching minor league pitchers just as beneficial as major league pitchers? Can he get more instructions in a major league setting? Playing more is the best practice, IMO.

There's other ways Swihart makes the 25 man roster: 1) We trade Vaz or Leon. 2) Swihart beats our Moreland for a starting line up slot. (HanRam back to 1B & Swihart DHs vs RHPs and catches vs LHPs.) 3) Vaz or Leon gets hurt or goes on the phantom DL.

I think only the very best players get upset when they are jerked around in a line-up. Look at the four to five guys I'm talking about. 1) Pablo lost his FT job last year. I'm not sure how upset he can feel, if he is playing FT but batting 6th vs RHPs and 8th vs LHPs. It's better than being platooned like he probably should be. In some ways, he should feel lucky to have the inside track on a FT job right now. 2) Moreland must be resigned to the fact that he's going to platoon this year, unless someone gets hurt. 3) Young has been platooned a lot in his career. I think he's comfortable moving around and spot starting. 4) Bogaerts is still young. He may improve on his splits to a point where we don't even think about it. In his short career, he's already batted in 5 different slots more than 170 PAs: 2nd 844 PAs (where I think he's best, at least until his power increases) 1st 494 PAs 7th 211 PAs 6th 189 PAs 8th 171 PAs others 108 PAs 5) Beni is a rookie who is probably just happy playing FT. He's handled change very well over his short professional career.. He's changed levels 4 times in 2 years and switched from CF to LF. I doubt he'd be bothered by batting 1st vs RHPs and 6th or 7th vs LHPs.

It might not look pretty on paper, but I bet those bottom 3 slots outperform at least 20 other teams in MLB this year. It's hard for me to view it as a weakness in this context.

I realize that most players prefer to have a pretty set slot in the line-up from day to day, but at some point the balance swings to moving a player to another slot or platooning him. My "tipping point" is probably a lot tighter than most, but there are just some cases that scream out for a move. To me, the biggest issues are: 1) Chris Young should bat in a top 5 slot when a lefty starts. I suppose I could live with the 6 slot to help keep continuity" with the top 5 slots, but he deserves to be top 5. 2) Pablo should probably be platooned, but at the very least, he should be dropped in the order vs LHPs to the 8 or 9 slot. 3) Moreland is much better vs RHPs and will probably be platooned this year. Moreland at 1B vs RHPs with HanRam at DH/ HanRam at 1B vs LHPs with Young at DH (or Travis at 1B and HR at DH FT). 4) Bogey has a .130 split differential in his career. This is pretty close to demanding an adjustment, but I'm okay with keeping him near the same slot as much as possible, if he seems like the type to is bothered by batting in 2 slots based on a lefty or righty starting for the opps. I don't think my line-up suggestions are too radical. A lot depends on how Beni does. Will he eventually hit lead off, 2nd or 3rd or not higher than 6th? There's even a chance he may end up platooned with Young on a semi-regular basis. Assuming he does well, this is about as "set" as I'd go: vs RHPs: 1 Beni L 2 Pedey R 3 Betts R 4 HanRam R 5 JBJ L 6 Bogey R 7 Pablo L 8 Moreland L 9 Leon L vs LHPs 1 Beni L 2 Pedey R 3 Betts R 4 HanRam R 5 Young R 6 Bogey R 7 JBJ L 8 Rutledge/Pablo 9 Leon/Vaz Personally, I'd move Flip Bogey and Beni vs LHPs, but the above line-ups have minimal but critical movement.

Granted, the Sox rarely move people around in the line-up based on lefty-righty starters, but it does happen a significant amount of time in MLB. Players do move to different slots and adjust well. I don't think we do it enough. I get the "comfort and routine" argument, but there has to be a tipping point somewhere that over rides that advantage. Would you keep batting a guy with a .300 OPS vs LHPs in the same slot? How about .400? .500? .550? I like to use the Young example. Even if his .875-.950 recent sample size OPS are outliers, and he's rated to hit about .800-850 vs LHPs this year, if that's 200 points higher than someone else, Id' flip them in the line-up.

I think you might be surprised how much batters already are moved around. Pedey abtted 1st for 213 PAs and 470 2nd. Betts batted 1st for 516 PAs and 159 up 4th and 55 others. Bogey batted 229 up 2nd and 482 up 3rd Papi batted 197 up 3rd and 418 up 4th HanRam batted 82 up 4th and 521 up 5th. JBJ: 96 up 5th, 236 up 6th, 82 up 7th, 55 up 8th, and 147 up 9th Shaw batted all over the place.

That includes PAs vs RHPs, which of course Young will get, even in a strict platoon, but here are Young's most recent overall wRC+ numbers. I see no reason to expect a massive drop off, unless he is forced to play vs RHPs more than desired. 2014: 95 2015: 110 2016: 125

Not batting Young in the top 5 vs LHPs is borderline criminal. He's been one of MLB's best hitters vs lefties over the last 2-3 years. I doubt Beni would mind batting in 2 different slots this year as a rookie. Even if Beni does feel uncomfortable, there's no denying Young deserves to bat higher up in the line-up than 6th with numbers like these, besides, what about Young's feelings? I'd be pretty upset sporting a .980 OPs and batting below the 5 slot. 2015-2016 (232 MLB players with 180+ PAs vs LHPs) 1.076 Goldschmidt 1.061 N Cruz 1.024 W Flores 1.011 Trout .984 Braun .980 Young Only 4 guys had more PAs and a better OPS vs lefties. That puts Young in the top 2% vs lefties. If we want a larger sample size and look at 2014-2016, only 23 MLBs had more PAs and a better OPS vs LHPs than Young's .875 OPS in 351 PAs. In this sample size he's top 14% in MLB. Only Hanley Ramirez has better numbers vs lefties in this time period and is on the Sox roster. That .875 in better than EE's numbers vs lefties.

Young rates to be way better than Beni vs LHPs. I'd shift somehow to put Young 5th.

Yes, these are MLB's 2016 numbers as a whole. I said it was a simple way of looking at the slots, and I do not doubt the reports that show 2, 4 and 5 are more important than 3. I like 3 over 4 & 5 due to getting more PAs, and I like 3 over 1 & 2, because Betts has more power, and I think we can find 2 guys with equal or better OBP skills than Betts to bat ahead of him. Last year, Pedey had a better OBP than Betts, and Bogey was nearly equal. I'm hoping Beni become one (at least vs RHPs). I could see this being the eventual best line-up: 1) Beni 2) Bogey 3) Pedey 4) Betts 5) HanRam However, I think the splits from Bogey and Beni might be too drastic to keep a set line-up. I might like this better: vs RHPs 1) Beni 2) Pedey 3) Betts 4) HanRam 5) JBJ 6) Bogey vs LHPs 1) Bogey 2) Pedey 3) Betts 4) HanRam 5) Young (DH) 6) Beni 7) JBJ

Might be overly simplistic: League Runs + RBI - HR by batting slot 1) 3060 + 1996 -576 =4480 2) 2926 + 2257 - 608 = 4575 3) 2844 + 2964 -860 = 4948 4) 2690 + 3052 - 930 = 4812 5) 2450 + 2640 - 769 = 4321 Remember, each slot has significantly less PAs as you go down from 1 to 5 and beyond. I'm not doubting the studies that Kimmi speaks of, but for the same reasons for wanting Betts up 2nd not 3rd (namely more PAs) could apply to wanting him up 3rd not 4th or 5th.

I pretty much agree. I start my line-up by penciling in my best overall hitter in the 3 spot. Then, I look at my best OBP and SLG guys. I try to put one of my best OBP guys up first with speed as the tiebreaker. I like another high OBP guy up second. I'm not so big on "must make contact" from this slot. Just get on base. My best power hitter goes 4th, unless there's someone with almost the same power but better OB skills. From 5 to 9, I go best overall hitter down to worst. If it's close to a tie, I alternate lefty-righty, but not to an extreme.

Scoring in the first inning is often a good way to win games. Even if Betts gets up with 2 outs and none on, we still have a chance to score. He can even single or walk, steal a abse and come in on a hit by HanRam.

If you're on a good team with good OB% guys up 1 & 2, your 3rd guy should get lots of chances with at least one man on base. How many times do other slots get up with no men on and 2 outs in an average game? Probably less than the 3 slot.

Sale is going to be fine.

I know you got numbers to support your claim, but I still like the best up 3rd. (See, I'm not always about numbers.)

I would too. Give Beni a period of low stress.

We could just stop drafting pitchers and just resign ourselves to trading for them. We have such a good record drafting positional players that we could stock up on to deal for pitchers that are more proven.

Biggest career split differentials: 162 Pablo (much better vs RHPs) 139 Young (better vs LHPs) 130 Bogey (better vs LHPs) 105 Moreland (better vs RHPs) 97 S Leon (better vs LHPs) 83 Vazquez (better vs LHPs) 69 HanRam (better vs LHP but still .844 vs RHPs) 64 JBJ (better vs RHPs) 54 Swihart (better vs LHPs) 50 Pedey (better vs LHPs) 29 Betts (better vs RHPs) 5 Holt (actually slightly better vs LHPS!) Beni only has 85 PAs vs RHPs (.984) and 33 vs LHPs (.429), but his splits need to be monitored. Tiny sample sizes, but the differential is a staggering 556!

Beni's got good speed. Eventually, I'd like to see him up 1st. If Bogey show's increasingly more power, I'd fine with him up 4th or 5th, but I kind of like the idea of him up second behind Beni with Pedey moved to 4th or 5th. Maybe vs LHPs: Beni-Bogey-Betts, but vs RHPs: Beni-Pedey-Betts. Bogey is 130 points better vs lefties (.847 to .771); Pedey is about even.

Plus, I personally like the best overall hitter up 3rd. That would be Betts.

I'd prefer... 1) Beni 2) Bogey 3) Betts 4) Pedey 5) Ramirez 6) JBJ v R/Young v L 7) Pablo v R/JBJ v L 8) Moreland v R/Rutlege v L 9) Leon/Vaz

MLBTR... Andrew Benintendi has just 118 plate appearances in the Majors and still qualifies as a rookie, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Red Sox are nonetheless considering batting the game’s No. 1 overall prospect (per Baseball America, ESPN and MLB.com) third in their lineup this coming season. Doing so would break up Boston’s other top four hitters (right-handed bats Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez) evenly. “A lot of times, a player is going to tell you what he’s ready for or capable of and how you would think he would handle adversity by not being fragile mentally,” manager John Farrell tells Rosenthal. “If we didn’t feel that way about Andrew, I don’t know that he’d be in the big leagues last year.” So what? This? 1) Pedey 2) Bogey 3) Beni 4) Betts 5) Ramirez 6) JBJ 7) Moreland/Young 8) Pablo/Rutledge 9) Leon/Vaz