moonslav59

OPS Against Leaders (50+ IP) .452 B Morgan (SAL>GRE) .527 Delzine (FCL>SAL) .571 E Walker (FCL>SAL) .594 Ed. Rivera (POR>WOR) .616 Tolbert (SAL) .635 Brown (SAL>GRE) .636 Gilman (SAL>GRE) .657 Paez (POR>WOR) .672 Halligan (POR>WOR) .677 Tyagart (FCL>SAL>GRE) .686 Wehunt (POR>WOR .687 Mayers (SAL>GRE) .694 Olds (WOR) .698 Carlson (POR>WOR) .703 Holobetz (POR>WOR) .709 Bastardo (WOR) .716 Er. Rivera (POR>WOR) .721 Futrell (SAL>GRE>POR) .731 Song (WOR)

Sox Farm XBH Leaders 52 Brannon (346 ABs: 114K:39 BB) 52 Arias (425 ABs: 70K:51 BB) 51 Azocar (367: traded) 48 Cespedes (442: 123Ks:36 BB) 42 I Jackson (394 & 108:51) Notables: 40 M White (347 & 101:51) 36 Gonzales (417 & 100:68)

Career batting first: .381 OBP (.831 OPS is the best of all slots.) .333 OBP before today is not great, but it still beats Duran and the team as a whole. Team .307 (.684 OPS) Duran .264 (.667) No doubt, he hasn't been helpful, this year, but he's not a major reason our leadoff slot has sucked this year.

I presented the OPSA numbers for our starters; now, here is the CERA numbers for our top pitchers in order of most IP (all pitchers with 30+ IP are listed here) : Wong does not look so impressive, except for just a few pitchers. Only sample sizes of 18 IP+ listed Gray: Wong 2.30, AR 3.32, Narv 3.94 Tolle: Gasper 2.52, Narv 2.86, Wong 3.77/Career: Wong 3.80 & Narv 4.05 Suarez: Narv 2.96, AR 3.90, Wong 4.02 Bennett: Narv 2.05, Gasper 4.98, Wong 5.40 Bello: Wong 4.93, Narv 7.52 & Career: Jansen 3.23, Wong 3.92, McGuire 4.89, Narv 5.40 Early: Narv 3.45, Wong 3.68 & Career: Narv 3.10, Wong 3.81 Moran: Wong 2.49, Narv 2.55 (virtually tied) Watson: Narv 3.76, Wong 5.48 Sandoval: Wong 5.18, others combined about equal Weissert: Narv 2.93, Wong 5.79 & Career: Narv 3.31, Wong 3.59 Chapman: Narv 0.87, Wong 2.37& Career: Narv 0.89, Wong 1.66 Whitlock: Wong 1.57, Narv 2.50 but career Narv 2.22, Wong 2.52 (Vaz 2.40, McGuire 4.50) Guerrero: (12+ IP) Wong 2,16, Narv 3.00 Slaten: (12+) Wong 1.20, Narv 5.54 and career Wong 2.98, Narv 3.92 (McGuire 3.57) Crochet: (12+) Wong 3.12, Narv 10.66 & career: Wong 2.23, Narv 3.27

Ultimately, being over .500 in the playoffs, or at least advancing 1-2 rounds will be a major part of the final grade for the Sox season. The team's 5 year trend by W-L% only... .481 (2022) .481 .500 .549 .541 (2026) The team was 116-106 from 2020-2021 (.522.)

Some of Brez's moves have been more miss than hit, but the overall improvement of the pitching staff has been a plus in his resume. The state of our pitching staff from single A to the MLB level has been a weak area for many years and maybe even decades. The young pitcher acquisition and development area had been abysmal. It's easy to point to Sale, Harrison, Drohan and Priester and think Brez is a bonehead, but when you look at the whole pitching picture, our move from near perennial last place finishes to a playoff level team is almost totally a result of the turnover of the pitching rosters. I'm pretty sure the total amount of turnover is unprecedented in the last half century of Sox history, at least in a successful sense. Maybe some of the bad teams saw more turnover in a 3 year span, but I'm not so sure. In many cases, Brez added pitchers he later dealt away, and it is these cases that makes me think the "unprecedented" term is correct. Using 78 different pitchers at the MLB level over a 3 year span is not record-breaking, as far as I know. 4 of them were everyday players used in a mop-up roll, so the actual number is 74, or about 25 per season, but this is 25 different pitchers per season. The turnover at the minor league level is perhaps more extreme, as no Sox GM has traded, drafted, IFA signed and MiLB FA signed combined prospects than Brez. Here is the end of year 2023 pitching roster of remaining pitchers: MLB: Bello, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, Kelly AAA: None AA: Angel Bastardo, I Coffey, Olds A+: Monegro, Rogers, Song (reacquired,) Sena A-: Duffy, Mullins, Paez (re-acquired) FCL: Wehunt, Carlson I may have missed one or two, but you get my point. The other side of the coin... Notable Pitchers in the 2026 system acquired by Brez: MLB: Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Tolle, Bennett, Sandoval, Oviedo, Chapman, Slaten, Miller, Guerrero, Weissert, Moran, Gamboa, Burgos, Rivera, Paez, Samaniego AAA: Holobetz, Ziehl, Song, Harris AA: Futrell, C Adams, Vogatsky, Brooks A+: Brown, Mayers, Gilman, Morgan, Finley, Phillips A-: Delzine, Foutch, Tolbert, B Ortiz, J Bello, Montero, Judice, Y Ruiz FCL/DSL: LaFavor, Cason, Jak Gamboa, Adetuyi, Davenport, Lanman, Kranzler, Volmerding, Evangelista, Pereira, Pineda, Cordero

Chunking the Sox season into uneven sample sizes: 13-21 to start the season (.382) 14-14 in the next 28 games (.500) 5-11 before "the stretch" (.313) 31-5 in historic stretch (.861 is wacko!) 17-17 since "history" (.500)

OPS Last 4 weeks: (PAs if under 25) 1.312 Gasper 1.131 Jones .971 Seigler (17) .853 Abreu .801 Anthony .800 Story .792 Sogard .762 Contreras .714 White .703 Duran (3rd on team in PAs/4 wks) .695 AR .597 Durbin, .581 IKF (22) .552 Wong, .316 Monasterio

OPS Against last 4 weeks: (PAs) .167 Whitlock (12) Need this guy! .421 Chapman (33) Welcome back! .487 Gamboa (41) Thanks Brez! .492 Miller (40) THanks Brez! .632 Olds (54) WOW! .669 Gray, .690 Bello, .722 Suarez, .739 Tolle & .771 Bennett, .854 Sandoval- The starters. .724 Guerrero, .754 Burgos & .755 Moran .868 Weissert 1.472 Paez (23)

Both have been okay over the full season in their intended roles, but yes, they have struggled for over a month. I wouldn't mind seeing both back for 2027 as the #7-8 pen guys only. Knowing Brez- both will be traded.

If "decent on defense over the summer" is the best we can say about Duran, he's gotta go. The arb cost of $8M plus is the final line drawn. (I wouldn't at $6M)

The tough ALE makes up for it. 13 games v TBR & NYY 13 gms v BAL & TOR That's 52. 60 vs other AL teams, who include 2-3 decent teams.

Anthony was at .842 since his return. (17Ks in 54 PAs sucks, but Duran only wishes he could hit .742.)

Godbout went 2-5 with a 2B tonight (.973.) Rosario omered aain. I think that's 4 in the last 6 games. Brannon hit his 21st. I believe he leads the farm in XBHs, but 114 Ks in 91 games worries some of us. Contreras played (2-4.) Houck K'd 4 in 3IP (1H, 1BB, 1 ER) Holobetz pitched well in POR's 4-1 loss.

I've said I want to replace Wong. That doesn't change the fact that he seems good at this one thing. This year is looking rather inconclusive., but Narvaez beat out Wong in only 2 of 7 samples. Here are some 2026 numbers: OPS Against by Pitcher-Catcher: .585 Suarez-Wong (62)>.619 Suarez-Narvaez (312) with AR .715 (119) .724 Tolle-Wong (268) << .474 Tolle-Narvaez (113) with AR .524 (21) .646 Gray-Wong (420)> .743 Gray Narvaez (138) with AR .722 (53) .732 Bello-Wong (199)>> .936 Bello-Narvaez (137) with AR at .546 (51) .738 Bennett- Wong (102)<< .518 Bennett-Narvaez (168) and .670 with AR .405 Early-Wong>>.739 Early-Narvaez (251) .830 Sandoval-Wong (156)>> 1.146 Sandoval-Narvaez (23) with AR at .771 (63) Gasper is... .713 w Tolle (102) N/A with Gray ,375 w Bello (24) .768 Bennett (87) .680 Early (51) N/A Sandoval .

Gasper's numbers have to be too small to know much.

While pitch calling and even pitch-framing have lost significance in recent years, the comfort zone some pitchers get with one catcher over another is for real and measurable. Some catchers are better at setting targets. Some don't move around and cause distractions. Some know when to walk out to the mound or give the pitcher a breather by delaying the throw back or asking for a ball check. Some might get better results for reasons we'd think were questionable or absurd. Ask the pitchers, and many will say it matters a lot.

I can't see paying him even $6-7M, and if that's true for all GMs, then he's more of a non tender candidate than a trade candidate. I would not bring him back.

"Hanging Chad" is a reference to the 2000 stolen election, when ballots were disputed because the chad was hanging. Small "c" on chad- not Chad our deserving-to-be-extended manager. The double entendre is that they are leaving Chad hanging in the wind by not extending him.

Instead of extending Chad, some might be thinking of.... hanging chad.

Duran will be traded. I don't think we pay his arb rate, next year.

AR did get a Cortisone shot after Monday's game, so...

It's a controversial topic, and in my opinion often misused. Looking at just team CERA is not an accurate methodology. One major variable is the unbalanced innings caught from one pitcher to the next, so I have done studies of CERA and OPS Against pitcher by pitcher with a stronger emphasis placed on examples that have larger and more balanced sample sizes. I've done this for many years, and will for this year, when I have time. The results show Wong has been pretty good (vs Narvaez in 2025 and McGuire/Jansen in 2024 and others before that.) This is not to say Narvaez or others sucked, but Wong did get better results with more pitchers.

He might be all we can get for Duran.

How could Brez let Hammy get away! And what about Blaze?