moonslav59

Pending lockout?

The 4 major underwater contracts according to BTV: -28M Story ($6M value-$33M owed) -20M Bello ($25M-$45M) -18M Campbell ($38M-$55M) -16M Yoshida ($4M-$20M) Trading Story and Yoshida has been talked about enough. In theory, we could get someone to pay $10M of their remaining contracts. That doesn't get us much to use elsewhere, but it would free up a couple roster spots. We do seem to have enough middle infielders and DH types to not miss a beat. Bello & Campbell have a lot of value by BTV standards: it's just their pay that brings them to significant underwater players. I think we keep both. Trading Duran seems like a near sure bet, this winter. That would free up a little more money, and we have Anthony, Jones and White to fill the OF slot. Assuming no Story, Duran or Yoshida, this could be the 13 everyday players: Rutschman & Gasper (AAA: Wong/ Jo Garcia/GRod) Contreras & Romy (AAA: Casas/Brannon) Mead & Seigler (AAA: Rodgers/Godbout) Durbin (AAA: Romero/Winnay) Arias & Sogard (AAA: Monasterio/Cheng) Anthony (AAA: Ward/Gutierrez) Rafaela (AAA: Eaton/I Jackson) Abreu (AAA: Campbell/Gonzales) DH: Gasper/Jones or timeshare: Mead/Rutschman/Romy (AAA: Cespedes/M White/Ro Hernandez)

Despite claims to the contrary, Story is doing well enough to not need an Arias call-up, too.

Nice win, despite so many not in the line-up or available out of the pen. No Contreras No Rafaela No Durbin No AR No Mead No Chapman No Whitlock

Unlike the AR trade and Miller trades.. If there ever was a season to make deadline rental deals, this one was it- yet we didn't.

We will lose 2 pretty big contracts and 2 moderate ones in 1-2 years: Story & Yoshida and Sandoval & Duran. None need equal replacement players. Sonny's departure this winter and Chapman's next will demand attention, but that's it until after 2029.

The Sox farm went 4-0 tonight. WOO won 4-2 as KC went 3-4 w an HR. Seigler had 2 hits, including a triple. POR won 6-4 as Rosario hit his 13th. McDonough went 3-4 GRE won 5-1 as Morgan pitched 4 scoreless (1H, 2BB, 3K) Hernandez 303 (.955) and Hull 2-4 (.956.) SAL won 6-5 as Delzine pitched 4 scoreless (4H, 0BB, 6K) Primera homered (.968) and Guzman, too (.882)

Sox Graduating Prospects: 2026: Tolle, Bennett, Samaniego (Early) 2025: Anthony & Campbell 2024: Abreu, Rafaela, Slaten & Sogard 2023: Casas & Kelly 2022: Bello, Duran, Crawford & Wong 2021: Houck & Whitlock Imagine the Sox prospect list if these players did not graduate or be traded in the last 2 years; 1. Anthony 2. Tolle 3. Arias 4. Early 5. Bennett 6. Teel 7. Eyanson 8. Meidroth 9. Harrison 10. Drohan 11. Montgomery 12. Witherspoon 13. Campbell 14. Azocar 15. Gonzales 16. Primera 17. Dobbins 18. Perales 19. Clarke 20. Tibbs/Godbout

I doubt it's bothering anyone but Chad and the other coaches, but yes, some have likely thought of it. I just don't think it's lingering in the back of any player's minds.

Perhaps some meaningful fWAR comps: 4.5 Bregman v 2.4 Durbin or 5.8 Durbin + Suarez (Breg $$) 3.9 Pete Alonso v 3.9 Contreras (2.5 Schwarber & Murakami) 3.5 Paredes v 0.2 Duran 1.8 Bichette v 1.8 Sox 2B team WAR 4.0 Arraez, 3.9 B Lowe, 2.6 Hoerner, 2.3 KMarte v 1.8 Sox 2B in '26 3.2 Abrams, 2.8 Neto, 1.7 Bogey v 0.5 Sox SS team WAR 4.1 Harrison + Drohan+ DHam v 2.7 Durbin+Seigler+Monasterio 5.4 Cease (+$$$) v 3.4 Suarez 3.6 Harrison + Drohan v 3.4 Suarez 1.9 Drohan or 1.7 Harrison v 2.4 Gray or 2.4 Bennett -0.2 Perales v 2.4 Bennett 3.3 TMay+ Buehler v 3.4 Suarez 3.8 Harrison+ Drohan+ Dobbins + Preister + Perales v 8.1 Suarez+Gray+Bennet + Oviedo

Probably, but I doubt anyone has it in the back of their mind, "Man, I'm bummed out he hasn't been extended yet," or even "I wonder why they haven't extended Tracy, yet.)

We need to sic the hounds on Bassitt.

Extending him may add some energy to the team. Maybe they are waiting for the right moment. Not extending him might mean they've had someone in mind all along.

Kleyver Salazar is the younger brother of ex-Sox prospect Johnfrank. He's been on fire since mid-June. Beyond the 33 BB v 34 Ks in those 47 ames, he's hit .347. (1.024 OPS) KS jumped into soxprospects newly updated top 60 prospect list at #50. Speaking of those rankings, Arias, Gonzales, Primera, Valera & odbout remain the top 5. Some movement below: 6 Delzine, 7 Hull, 8 Schaffner, 9 Holobetz, 10 Cespedes (#9 and 10 are signs the farm depth has fallen off.) 11 Mataczynski & 12 Shelar mark 4 draftees in the top 12- another sign of farm depth decline. 13 Wehunt, 15 Phillips, 16 Paez, 18 Bastardo & 20 Brown are the farm's 4-5-6-7-8 highest ranked pitchers--- EEEK! I'm kinda high on 14 Carlos Gutierrez (recent trade add) and 19 Winnay, but #17 Soto is just 18. 22 Romero is falling like Castro & Bleis before him did. 21 Ziehl may jump the pitcher rankings by season's end. 23 Mullins, 24 Monegro & 25 Rivera have little hope of significant impact careers. I'm probably higher than most on some catcher prospects: 26 GRod, 28 Heyman, 37 Jo Garcia, 52 A Guzman & 54 JRod, but maybe Salazar passes them all. Mason White at #27 deserves some mention, but he still has a lot to prove at age 22 w POR. I Jackson (from Grissom trade) could surprise and LaFavor round out the top 30 soxprospects.com show little love for Jo Garcia and Brooks Brannon, and I understand why, but I'm a freak for stats, and they look like they have more hope than these rankings suggest. Johanfran Garcia is just 21 and missed time with injury. He probably will not stick at Catcher, and that's a shame, but if he can improve enough on defense to be a capable #2 Catcher/DH or 1B type, maybe he gets a look-see, someday. He K's too much (94 in 75 games this year and 68 in 58 games in 2025. Like Brannon, he as power. 30 HRs in the past 2 years, but unlike Brannon, he as only 17 2B in that same 511 AB period. Brooks Brannon is 22 and also will not likely see time as a Catcher in MLB. He too is the dreaded DH/1B type like a million other wanna-bees. He K's a lot. 108 Ks in 87 games, this year. (117/93 last year) He does have 21 HRs and 49 XBHs in just 325 ABs, so there in lies his best hope- POWER. That's an XBH every 6.5 AB! Maybe I spent too much time on these two, but both are still young enough to improve on their weak areas. (Defense & Ks.) Beyond the 30th rankings are some longshots- most hardly worth mentioning, but here are a few I see as having promise: B Moram 44>35 Ramos 17>31 Andujar NR>36 Futrell NR>45 J Ramirez NR>46 Berny Ortiz NR>48, Wm Montero NR>49 & Jakson Gamboa NR>55 YRod remains in the top 60 at #59. (Priester trade with Holobetz)

Sox OPS since trade deadline: (In order of most PAs) .814 Sogard (yes, leads the team in PAs since 8/4) .968 Abreu (taking over) .606 Rafaela (don't let Fred know this) .694 Durbin (might be a career .700 batter) .553 Monasterio (it was fun while it lasted) .758 Contreras (maybe the IL can give him a boost) .598 Rutschman (67 PAs is more than Wong's 56) 1.525 Gasper (59 PAs is moving from tiny sample to small) .572 Wong (back to earth with a thud) .629 White (decent bench player) .853 Yoshida (Gasper helped take up his slack) 1.218 Anthony (I shudder to think of a full season) 1.487 Jones (strict platoon, but who cares?) 1.000 Story (just 20 PAs, but eh did end 2025 well) 1.389 Rogers (earned im a DFA) .333 IKF (welcome back Mr. K.)

The shore line could end up being... gasp at this word.... a CLIFF.

2022-2026 (260+ PAs vs LHPs) OPS 9. Willson Contreras .892 10. Jahmai Jones .888 31. Refsnyder .848 (2026 is killing his numbers) 41. Romy .840 80. Meidroth .799

We should remember that Gasper hit .426 (that's OPS) vs RHPs, before this year. That's #543 out of 547 batters with 90+ PAs from 2024-2025. This looks freakish. If he hit just .800 we could view it as be a fluke.

If you are a great platoon batter, doing it vs RHPs is preferable, as about 70% of all staretrs faced are RHPs. It looks like Jones has taken Refsyder's slot and actually improved on his amazing numbers with the Sox. A Gasper-Jones DH platoon could be a very inexpensive juggernaut.

MLB and Sox Pitcher Rankings (130+ IP) 73 qualify fWAR: 17 Suarez (3.4) 19 Tolle (3.3) 31 Gray (2.7) ERA-: 10 Gray (66) 16 Tolle (75) 24 Suarez (80) ________________ 90+ IP (137 qualify) fWAR: 17 Suarez, 19 Tolle, 32 Gray, 47 Bennett (2.4) 114 Early (0.7) 120 Bello (0.5) ERA-: 13 Gray (66) 23 Tolle (75) 29 Bennett (78) 33 Early & Suarez (80) ____________________________ Other notables: 3 Sale 5.4 15 Baz 3.5 26 ERod 3.0 35 Dustin May, Joe Ryan & Wacha 2.6 63 Drohan 1.9 70 Harrison 1.7 75 Buehler 1.5 135 Springs -0.7

Last 14 days: 2.84 Bennett (4.45 last 28 days) 3.60 Gray (3.00) 3.60 Sandoval (5.40) 3.63 Suarez (3.90) 4.91 Tolle (3.38) 8.68 Bello (5.50) & 19.64 Paez 28 Days OPS Against .649 Tolle .658 Bennett .715 Suarez .720 Bello & Gray .825 Sandoval 1.472 Paez

I was fine with the trade at the time. We overpaid, but deadline deals for the better players, especially those that are not rentals is expected. I was very high on more than just Eyanson, but their value was and still is speculative. We needed a bat. Catcher was our weakest offensive position and not great on D either. The trade is still TBD. Even if AR gives us a 2 WAR next year and something of value this year, it might be a plus. His playoff numbers might override averything else. What the return package does might end up being the deciding factor, and those results are 2-5 years away. I'd rather see deals like this than the non-Schwarber Bloom deadline nonsense. I've also argues that winter roster construction should be designed to avoid needing to make massive summer overpays to fill holes, but on this one, I give Bloom a half pass. I thought Narvaez & Wong were fine for 2026 and beyond. I was wrong, so I can't blame Brez for agreeing with me. I did think we came up a big bat short, last winter, but I felt the overloading of pitching could/would make up for it. I also think the Mead trade should have met the bat need we fell short of. That was a sort of overpay, too but not massive. His first game injury forced the AR deal. Half pass.

Plus Paez 19.64 ERA (3.2 IP)

Sox have 3 pitchers in the top 30 in ERA- (130+ IP) T9. Gray 66 T16. Tolle 75 T26. Suarez 83 3 in Top 25 in xFIP 3 in Top 32 in fWAR (Gray T 32) _______________________________ 3 in top 30 Pen arms fWAR 14. Whitlock 1.7 16 Chapman 1.5 29 Bello 1.2 (Guerrero in 40th) ERA- 15. Whitlock 20 Bello 24 Capman (55 Moran/ 75 Guerrero)

Yanks lost Rays keep winning