moonslav59

Thank you. It's bigger than the ST'ing one.

He is having a decent ST'ing, but this is a tiny sample size and he was not very often facing MLB pitching.

He actually did better in his last 14 games with the Sox in 2025 (.739) than he is doing in ST'ing 2026 and the end of his 2025 farm season. The longer he goes, the more worried I get, but I still am optimistic about his chances.

Yup. Ideally neither gets a look-see.

Brez is a genius! We found our big bat!

I do feel like Masa is more of a known than Casas, but it seems closer, to me. Casas has better numbers and IMO, more upside (and maybe downside, too.)

He's older, and we do know a little more, but maybe at the age starts a decline. Casas is pre-prime but has the injury thing and not quite enough of a sample size to know anything for sure. The thing that kinda hits me a lil bit is that Masa has just 250 more PAs in MLB than Casas, but it feels like we can predict him way easier than Casas.

And Masa is not?

MLB ST'ing OPS Leaders (12+ ABs) 2.167 Duran 1.942 Tyler Black 1.843 Jake Bauers 1.834 Bryson Stott 1.723 Yastrzemski 1.713 McLain 1.661 Brennen Davis 1.659 B Sullivan 1.600 Corey Julks 1.567 Dansby Swanson 1.563 Willson Contreras

When will we know? 109 OPS+ in first 1206 PAs in MLB (ages 29-31) 117 OPS+ in first 952 PAs in MLB (ages 22-25)

Don't get sad over a 10 game sample size, especially the first 10 games after a long winter off.

Yup. Suarez (31 in AUG) 129 ERA+ last 2 years (308 IP)/ 129 ERA+ last 5 years (694 IP) Luzardo (29 in SEP, but contract begins at age 29-30) 104 ERA+ (250 IP)/ 103 ERA+ last 5 years (624 IP) He did have a nice 2 year stretch '22-'23 with a 129 ERA+.

Phillies extend Luzardo to $135M/5 starting in 2027.

Indeed, but Betts lived up to every inch of the first part of his deal. As MVP pointed out, he's just about earned all the money, already. I think he'll still be decent for a few more years, too. That's icing on the cake, even if he's not "earning" his remaining salary- year by year. (It's amazing that he's played 5 years and has 7 left.) He's 33 and will be 34-39 for his last 6 seasons of his 12 year deal. Had we signed him to $300M/10, which we are not certain we offered that or he'd have taken it, but we'd be half way through.

Except it's not spring, yet. (LOL) Are ST'ing games even half over, yet?

Agreed. He might even have a few decent seasons left in him.

All true, but one 3 for 4 game changes all those KC numbers. (OK, not the K/BB one.)

Good breakdown. I doubt Castro sees MLB or ever gets a long look. I like Jo Garcia more than many do. I see 3 very promising IFAs near AA/AAA: Arias, Gonzales & Valera. 3 is not bad. The rest are too far away or don't appear to have high ceilings.

I was comparing the Contreras bat w Bregman and the Durbin/IKF glove to Bregman's 3/4 season (+Toro 1/4). To me, the missing piece was replacing the Devers bat.

I don't disagree, and almost all of these IFAs start out in DSL and FCL. We do have quite a few IFAs who should begin the season in AA or get there, this year, so not all are very far away, anymore: AA: Arias, Jo Garcia, YRod, Bleis & Castro (plus NR Liendo, F de Leon & others?) A+>>AA? Valera, J Gonzalez & others? I do agree that many of these players will never make the bigs, but it is nice to see more IFAs getting into the picture.

Dropping Anthony, Mayer and Campbell was a major factor in the drop. I think more than trading away Perales, Garcia, Clarke and some lesser prospects. Also, we did replace perales with Bennett, added Watson while losing Paez and built up our catcher depth around the #30 rankings. Both made a difference, but I think losing the big three, plus Narvaez was the majority factor in the drop. I kind of expected a bigger drop.

This is the part many gloss over, ignore or are unaware of.

Next, the Yanks & Jays... LOL

According to MLB.com, the Sox have the most IFA prospects in their top 30- fifteen of them! Here is how soxprospects.com ranks the Sox IFA prospects: 2. Arias '23 5. Valera '23 7. Gonzales '24 8. Soto '25 16. Bleis '21 17. Cespedes '23 18. Azocar '24 20. Castro '19 21. Delzine '25 22. Ramos '25 23. Rivas '25 24. Jo Garcia '22 (That's 12 in the top 24, but most are bunched from 16-24th.) 26. Monegro '20 (He is the 13th in the top 30.) 32. Primera 33. Silverio 34. Brito (16 in the top 34.) The Sox have usually done pretty well with IFA signings, and it's nice to see them seemingly doing well, again. IFA players on the current 40: Rafaela, Bello & Yoshida That's a much lower percentage than the top prospect list.

While fangraphs is rather bullish on the O's and have them finishing about 1.4 fWAR below the Sox with their projections, they have Holliday (1.9) and Westburg (2.7) as key pieces for 2026. Both will be on the IL for a significant time to start the season. Fangraphs also has some sunny projections when compared to 2025 numbers: 6.0 Henderson 4.8 in '25 (Understandable jump) 4.0 Rutschman 1.2 (Why this huge leap?) 3.6 Alonso (3.6 in '25) 2.7 Westburg (1.9- starts year on IL) 2.7 T Ward (2.9 in '25) 2.2 Cowser (0.6- I could see this jump upwards) 1.9 Holliday (1.2- starts year on IL) 1.5 Basallo (-0.3) 1.3 O'Neill (-0.3 in '25) 1.5 Beavers, 1.0 (from 0.7 in '25) Alexander (starting 2B now) & 0.6 Mayo (0.2 in '25 and starting 3B now) 2.9 Bradish (1.1 in '25) 2.1 Rogers (3.3 in '25) 1.9 Bassitt (2.3) 1.8 Baz (2.0) 1.4 Eflin & 1.2 Kremer 1.1 Helsley (0.2 a big jump projected, here) 0.5 Kittredge (0.2 in '25) A guess fangraphs likes the O's for some reason, but why this? Rafaela: 3.8>3.2 (maybe) Duran 3.9> 2.4 (absurd) Story 3.0>2.3 (can see this) Contreras 2.8>2.2 (nope) Narvaez 2.7> 1.9 (sophomore slump?) Abreu: 2.4> 2.4 (entering peak prime)