moonslav59

Career MILB numbers: Hernandez - .320/.396 430 k's 131 bb's Holt - .373-.410 277k's 187 bb's If you want to count single A numbers when Marco was 19-20 and Holt wasn't even in the minors at that age, go ahead. Hernandez is at least an equal hitter as Holt from AA to MLB. That's what really counts, and when you look at the age differences, Marco's numbers look more impressive.

Marco Level Age OPS A 19-20 .604 (614 PAs) A+ 21 .667 (486) AA 22 .832 (294) AAA 22-23 .752 (427) MLB 23 .780 (50) Holt A 21 .810 (285) A+ 22 .848 (218) AA 23-24 .777 (1011) AAA 25-28 .756 (586) MLB 25-28 .704 (1424) Maybe you're seeing something I'm not seeing, but Marco was... better in AA (when 1 & 2 years younger) about the same in AAA (when 3-5 years younger) better at MLb level in a tiny sample size. You're right, Marco is not in the same stratosphere. He's one level higher and at a younger age.

Agreed. Let some one else deal with the worry.

We have the best starter ERA in the second half this year despite playing many games in Fenway and being in the toughest division in MLB. Now, let's hope our pen can solidify.

Yes, and my point being was that Vaz was not kept in AAA, because Sox management didn't believe in him. He was kept there because with Leon, we didn't need Vaz on the 25 man roster, and it would have done him no good to play every 4 or 5 days.

Our perceptions are sometimes wrong. We've actually killed some big named pitchers this year. We seem to get shut down by unknowns more often than studs.

Bogey could probably use a day or two off. I think we may have to ride Leon as much as physically possible.

The second half sample size is getting larger everyday. Our starters have the best 2nd Half WAR in MLB: 6.3 BOS 5.6 TBR 5.2 CUB 5.2 NYM 4.4 WSH 4.1 DET 4.0 TOR ERA- 60 CUB 79 BOS 81 DET 83 TBR 88 KCR 89 COL 89 WSH WHIP 0.99 CUB 1.14 DET 1.15 BOS 1.15 WSH 1.17 TBR 1.26 NYY 1.27 TOR We now have a top 3 rotation and the best offense in MLB. We are ranked 8th in defense (UZR/150). We are ranked 7th in base running. Our only real statistical weakness is our pen: 12th in WAR 14th in WHIP (1.32) 2nd Half: 19th WAR 24th in WHIP (1.38) On paper, we are serious contenders, especially if our pen can stabilize. Now, we just need to win the damn games on the field! .

Detroit worries me too, but there's room for both of us. Let's just win the division and solve this whole problem. Playing a WC game will mess up our rotation.

6 of their last 9 losses have been by 1 run. It's time to start winning these games. We're 16-19 overall in one run games.

The Astros-Guardians game is still going on, but here are the standings as of now: Toronto +1 on BOS BOS +1 on BAL & DET BAL & DET are tied for the last WC slot. HOU -2.5 NYY -3.5 KCR -4.0 SEA -5.0

UZR does use trained observers to calculate how many balls hit into a player's zone are fielded. They rank easy ones, hard ones and near impossible ones. It sounds a lot like the one you are pining for.

They've actually bashed some good pitchers too.

I mentioned this on another thread about how we seem to outscore our opponents in many series that we end up losing or splitting, but it never seems to go in reverse...ever. When is the last time we were outscored in a series but won or even tied the series? Let's look. Series in reverse order starting from yesterday: Outscored the A's 27-5 but only won 2 of 3. (lost 1 gm by 1 run) Outscored the Rays 20-14 & won 2 of 3 (lost 1 by 1 run) We were outscored 19-15 by KC and lost 2 of 3. Outscored the Rays 12-8 but split 2-2 (lost 2 by 1 run). Outscored the Tigers 21-18 but split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 run). Outscored the O's and Guardians 16-6 and won all 3 games. Outscored AZ 31-9 and somehow won all three. Were outscored by the Yanks 16-11 and lost 2 of 3. Outscored the Dodgers 14-11 AND LOST 2-1! Were outscored 11-10 by Seattle and managed a split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 and 1 by 2). Outscored the Angels 14-12 and just split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 run). Were outscored by Detroit 17-13 and were swept (2 by 1 tun). Outscored the Twins 31-22 and split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 and 1 by 2). Outscored the Giants 15-7 and swept them 2-0. Outscored the Yanks 11-8 and won 2 of 3. Outscored the Rays 14-6 and swept them 3-0. Outscored the Rangers 25-18 and won 2 of 3. Were outscored by the Angels 30-17 BUT WON 2 of 3 (lost 21-2). That was the last time. Other times we were outscored but split or won this year? None. So basically... We were outscored in a series but still won the series .one time. We were outscored by the opps one time and split. We outscored the opps and split 4 times. We outscored the opps and lost the series 1 time.

Huh?

The problem with signing Jansen or Chapman is that they'd want to be assured of being the closer. I'd be happy doing that, but Kimbrel wouldn't. He'd demand a trade the next day.

He could have gotten much more. There's no doubt.

.It was generally agreed that Pedey was underpaid, when he signed his long extension. $12.6M a year for a recent MVP at his age was clearly a "hometown discount". I'm not defending the Sox lowball offer, but in the context of Pedey's "discount", maybe the Sox thought they could hit lightening twice.

But wouldn't expect at least one instance of the reverse happening? Where we get outscored in a series but gut out a split or a win? And, the fact is, this is happening way too often to be attributed to some sort of fluke. The series I listed below are just about every series we didn't win. When you outscore your opponents in every series, you expect to win more than you lose + split. We haven't. Just lok at the 4 four game series: Scored 78 runs (16 games) Allowed: 61 Runs Record: 8-8 Three of these series were vs TBR, LAA and MN.

I'm pretty sure we'd have seen Vaz back again in 2016 had Leon not taken control of the issue,

...or how much could be attributed for it just being a rather small sample size?

Ziegler is the only one I'd kick the tires on, but he probably wants to retire out west, and I'm not sure I'd out bid everyone for him either. Let's start fresh next year. I respect what Koji and Taz have done for us, but it's time to move on. I agree on the 4 you named, but you left out Carson Smith. That's 5, but I'm not sure Abad has a lock on a slot. I see it this way: RP1: Kimbrel RP2: _______ RP3: Smith RP4: _______ RP5: Kelly RP6: Ross RP7: One from- Abad, Barnes, Hembree, Elias, Scott, Owens, Johnson

If we trade Holt (and I think we should), we should keep Swihart & Shaw, since Swi can play LF and eventually 1B. His value as a 3rd catcher is also a big plus, especially, if we end up having to PH for Vazquez often. Sam Travis may take a long time to get back on track, so I agree, we should not count on him at all for 2017. I'm not counting on Pablo either, but I'm not counting him out either. I think the line-up I suggested keeps everyone playing enough to be happy and gets the best out of Shaw and Young by platooning them. Young at DH vs LHPs. He can spell OF'ers when they need a rest vs RHPs (Betts & Beni) or LHPs (JBJ). HanRam DHs vs RHPs and plays 1B vs LHPs. Shaw plays 1B vs RHPs only. He may play 3B when Moncada needs a break. Moncada plays 3B pretty much FT, but if he struggles vs LHPs, we could use Hernandez or Shaw, if he shows he can hit lefties again. Pablo is the wild card, but even if he makes it, I see him basically playing only vs RHPs. With Pablo playing, it might look like this: 3B: Moncada (Pablo/Shaw/Hernandez in reserve) 1B: HanRam (Shaw playing some vs RHPs) DH: Pablo vs RHPs/Young vs LHPs (HanRam playing some vs RHPs)

Well said and nice analogy. I doubt we trade a corner IF/er, until we find out who is going to stick. Besides, none have trade value high enough to get anything very special in return, except maybe Swihart and Sam Travis. I have suggested trading Swihart many times, but this winter might not be the best time stock value-wise and because we don't really know if Leon is for real or if Vazquez will ever hit over .600 consistently. I think we end up trading Holt and Owens for a good RP'er and then sign a very good RP'er.

Nothing against Kimbrel, but you just don't give up 4 prospects (2-3 very promising) for a RP'er- period. Then, when you add to that the fact that he's getting paid near FA money, I never understood why so many fans loved the trade. I'm not gloating, because I did not expect Kimbrel to decline. I was against the trade, even if he had a career norm year. We could have just signed Miller, kept the prospects for a later trade (for a better SP'er) and gotten Kenley Jansen or maybe Chapman this winter.