I said similar or better than Hernandez, and of course the value goes up, if Buch does very well to end the season.
The one year deal also has enormous value due to low risk involved. I realiz4e that same value can be applied to the Sox for just keeping Buch, but I have to think his value to another team as their possible 2-3-4 starter is worth more than to us as our 5/6 starter. That is the foundation of making a trade. (I have said the same about Holt- his value to another team is greater than to ours, once we lose our DH only player.)
Here's some of what $13M could have gotten last year (some hits-some misees):
Starters:
$12M x 3 JA Happ
$8M x 2 Pelfrey
$7.5M Colon
$6M R Hill
$6M C Lewis
$5.8M x2 C Young
RP'ers:
$8.3M x 3 J Soria
$8M x 1 W Davis
$7.7M x 4 D O'Day
$7.5M x 1 Benoit
$7.3M x 3 R Madson
$7M x 1 Fister
$6.3M x 1 JP Howell
$6.1M x 2 Clippard
$6M x 3 T Sipp
$6M x 2 Bastardo
$5.5M x 2 M Lowe
$5.5M x 1 Ziegler
$5M x 3 S Kelly
$5M x 2 Cishek, Axford. J Motte
$3.5M x 2 O Perez
$3M x 2 C Qualls
We could have had Andrew Miller for $10M x 4 a couple years ago.
I admit, I don't know much about this year's RP free agent class, but $13M can go a long way.
With Uehara, Ziegler and Taz all FAs after this year, take a look at our projected bottom of the pen. Maybe we can do both, but we could use some serious upgrades, perhaps at the expense of starter depth.
RP1 Kimbrel
RP2 Smith (if healthy)
RP3 Buch or Wright
RP4 Ross
RP5 Kelly
RP6 Barnes
RP7 Abad, Elias, Hembree
RP'ers 5 through 10 look pretty scary to me, and we're not sure we can count on Carson Smith. Kimbrel has looked shaky. Ross has been decent, but he's not a sure bet pitcher.