moonslav59

Some good take-aways: Uehara looked sharp. He could be a huge boost to the pen. Shaw is determined not to lose his job. HanRam continues to rake. Papi got a very nice rest. Our 2-6 hitters had just 3 hits, but we still scored 7 runs. Pedey is solid. Price is Price.

Here's what we have left... off @TOR Porcello (+1 day rest) @TOR ERod (+1) @TOR Pomeranz (+1) v BAL Buchholz (+1) v BAL Price (+1) v BAL Porcello V NYY ERod v NYY Pomeranz v NYY Buchholz @ BAL Price @ BAL Porcello @ BAL ERod @ BAL Pomeranz @ TBR Buchholz @ TBR Price @ TBR Porcello off @ NYY ERod (+1) @ NYY Pomeranz (+1) @ NYY Buchholz (+1) v TOR Price (+1) v TOR Porcello (+1) v TOR ERod (+1) If we did not give our best pitchers the extra days off, and we push ERod's start back, then Price opens against BAL with ERod sliding between Price and Porcello. Then, when we come to the last day off, we'd skip Buch and have this ... @ TBR Price @ TBR ERod @ TBR Porcello off @ NYY Pomeranz @ NYY Price @ NYY ERod or Buchholz (+2) v TOR Porcello v TOR Buch or ERod v TOR Pomeranz This way we are better lined up for Price to pitch the first game of the post season, and if we don't have to play the WC game, Porcello could start game 2, but we may need that extra start from Price in the regular season to make it to the playoffs.

I doubt we can afford to rest him in the upcoming series. Maybe tomorrow off will be all he needs.

I agree on your Medlen & Ontiveros assessments. On the "sustainability" of Buch's Stretches, I will say that he has had prolonged stretches of over a season long. Here's a look: Not only was the 2010 season's 28 starts of near total brilliance, despite some peripherals that indicate some luck may have been involved, he followed that season up with a very respectable 14 starts in 2011 before the injury. That's 28 +14 straight starts with a combined ERA of under 2.90. (256 IP and 42 GS'd) His best stretch was 2013, and he had actually has a very decent 2nd half of the prior year (2012). He had a 3.76 ERA in his final 15 starts of 2012 (103 IP). That number would have been much better without his last start of 1.2 IP and 8 ER, but it was what it was... a decent ending. He followed the second half of 2012 with 16 of his best starts of his career (1.74 ERA in 108 IP). Combined, that's 31 starts in a row with 211 IP and a combined ERA of under 2.80. So, two stretches: one of 42 starts and the other 31 starts of very effective pitching.

One could look back and maybe say the Moncada call-up was an essential factor in us winning the pennant- not for the reason we might have thought, but for the chance that perhaps his call-up was what lit the fire under Shaw's ass. Keep it up Travis!!!!

WAR is not a projector of what is to come: it's an evaluation of what a player has already done. Past performance does give some indication of what to expect after factoring in age, experience and recent trends, but WAR does not try to be a tool for determining what is to come. It is used to try and evaluate the whole player in the context of his peers.

Good info. One could claim Medlen and Ontiveros got lucky or just had a nice hot streak, even though not for a full season, but Buch has 2 in the top 38, which is the top 1% of all samples. It's not luck to do it twice. He's got nasty stuff than can be just about unhittable. He's shown he can do it for over 80 IP stretches. Let's hope he's just begun his 3rd great 80 inning stretch.

1 & 2 would make you think maybe "luck" is involved: Only 2975 "qualified", but when you lower to 80 IP, there are 4,908 samples. 1) Kris Medlen 25 (2012) 2) Steve Ontiveros 35 (1994) Others near the top: Greg Maddux2 in the top 5 F Liriano 8th Zach Duke 9th Gooden 10th Greinke, Kershaw, Arieta, K Brown, C Eldred, Rich Hill this year 20th, R Harden, Randy johnson's best is # 25, K hendricks, B Beachy are all the names in the top 30, not counting those already on the list provided.

Having 2 of the top 38 season's out of 4,900+ is still pretty amazing!

True. His 1.203 WHIP was nearly .200 over his 2013 season, but he still excelled at not letting up many runs although pitching in a pitcher's park vs tougher offensive teams than most.

In the last 25 seasons, there are about 5,000 season sample sizes of SP'ers getting 80+ IP in a season. Here's how Buch's ERA- seasons rank. 3) Pedro 35 (2000) 6) Buch 42 (2013) 7) Pedro 42 (1999) 19) Clemens 47 (1990) 22) Pedro 48 (2003) 24) Pedro 50 (2002) 32) Wake 52 (2002) 38) Buch 54 (2010)

2008: Buch sucked all year. 2009: Buch only pitched the second half and was okay. 2010: Buch pitched very well all season long (2.20 first half vs 2.45 ERA second half- one of MLB's best ERA- seasons of all time) 2011: Buch only pitched the first half and did good. 2012: Buch went 8-2 in the first half but had a 5.53 ERA/ 2nd half 3-6 3.76 2013: Buch had one of the best ERA- seasons of all time, 1.71 in 12 starts/1.88 in 4 starts (He missed the mid season) 2014: Buch sucked all year: 5.42/5.26 2015: Buch was very good until he got hurt (3.26 then DNP) 2016: Buch sucked first half (5.91) but has done well this half (2.95) I guess you could say 2012 was a split season, but the 8-2 record kind of smoothed over the bad ERA. I see only 2016 as a Jekyl and Hide season.

Buch is the one that rarely mixes good with bad in the same season. He might do great then get hurt, but this is the first season I know of where he started out one way and ended the other (and he hasn't ended this one well, yet.).

1) Price 2) Porcello 3) Pomeranz 4) ERod (4-5 innings)/Buch 4-5 innings If a 1-3 starter needs to be yanked early, and we use Buch in relief, he may not be available for game 4.

Good point, but my guess is these guys went to some sort of calibration training whereby they were all scoring the same observation and then compared notes and adjusted accordingly until they were all pretty similar by the end of the training.

True, but we outscored the opps many times and split 4 times. We were outscored by the opps many times and split just once.

Well, UZR/150 counts the zone, not where the player is stationed.

However, as good as this team looks to be in the future I can't help but think how much better they could be if they didn't have those two contracts in Pawtucket hanging around their necks. If they had that kind of money to spend on pitching they'd be SCARY good. It might soon be three with Pablo lobbying for the Pawtucket Country Club membership. (Luxury Tax dollars) $19.5M Pablo (actually $19.3M x 3 counting $5M option buyout) $10.4M Castillo (actually $11.5M x 4 left) $6.2M Craig (actually $12M x 1 left counting buying out 2018's option) That's over $40M that would have counted on the luxury tax budget and about $43M per year for 1 year, $30M for the next 2 years and then $13.5M for Castillo's last year-- 2020.)

It's a shame. He was our best 1st half starter. When you think about all the question marks this rotation had going into the season, and the fact that Buch and Kelly sucked royally out of the gate and then we lose our best starter, yet still our rotation now looks solid top to bottom. WOW!

Gotcha. I actually thought Moncada was going to be called up just to PR, PH and maybe play 3b or 2B very "sparingly".

JBJ is not the fastest CF'er in MLB. He gets exceptional breaks on balls, and takes the straightest route, as far as I know. Lorenzo Cain is a phenom. The others, I don't know much about. Without seeing other CF'ers as much as JBJ, I can't say nwho is best, but by seeing the aggregate CF'er, I think JBJ is about top 2-3. 6th is not that far off from 2-3. WAR is seriously flawed, but so is standing around the water cooler and trying to compare defensive, base running and batting value mixed together and at the same time. WAR attempts to put a single number to all values. It is flawed, and I can see why you and others don't like it, but you probably don't agree with "that other guy" at the water cooler either.

I'm not saying mental or emotional issues aren't affecting Buch's production, but there really is no way to know that for sure. He's been hurt a lot, and it seems like his poor performance periods are always immediately before or after an injury with missed time. He's either hurt or recovering from an injury. When he's not, he does great almost all of those (few) times.

Hill has not really provided what was expected. He was expected to be a capable platoon with Shaw and hit lefties close to what he had over his career (.761). I guess .716 isn't that far off, but it's less and he's in a hitter's park now. His UZR/150 at MIL was -1.0. It's -3.7 here.

I understand that and don't disagree... maybe not shouldn't be here, but more like shouldn't be handed the job outright on day two.

Yes, and the computer will be able to tell how long the ball was in the air, and how fast the player was able to get to the ball or not, and then compare that data to the norm. The one area that may be contentious is player positioning. Do you blame the player for being farther away from a hit ball to start with?