moonslav59

We can "prevail" with a weak link or two, but teams in the hunt often try to improve their odds of winning, even if slightly, at the deadline. We're not the favorites right now. We're not even the favorites to win the AL, and you can bet your bottom dollar the Astros, Guardians and the top NL teams will all be in the hunt for usable talent at the deadline. Most teams strive to improve their weakest links, even if their weakest link is near league average. 3B is clearly a weakness for us- not just our weakest link. We can hope and pray that Lin/Marrero keep up their recent pace, but I feel like the odds are greatly against that happening. I was one of the last to give up on Pablo, and I hope he's not part of any plan at 3B for the second half of 2017. We might see Rutledge or Holt back to help out at 3B, but none of these guys appear to be enough to bring us near average at 3B. I'd love to see Devers get a chance, but I really think that if he hasn't been given a chance so far this year, with all the great need we've had there, why would a few more weeks suddenly make him ML ready. If Sox management does plan on bringing Devers up to get a legitimate shot to win the 3B job, I hope they do it before the deadline or at least before the waiver wire deadline, so we have a chance to pick someone up before it's too late. I'm fine with standing pat, if Devers is in the 2017 plan, but if not, I'd try hard to find a deal where we do not have to overpay for a 3B rental. If none are out there, then doing nothing is not going to crush me. I DO NOT want to overpay for anyone this deadline, so maybe doing nothing is the best choice. Let's see what offers are out there and go from there.

All time Red Sox Rushmores... Pitching: Young, Pedro, Clemens, Grove (Tiant, Lester) Batting: Williams, Yaz, Ortiz, Boggs (Evans, Speaker) Overall: Williams, Young, Yaz, Pedro (Clemens, Ortiz)

Speaking of Mount Rusmore, here are some arbitrarily picked 10 year spans in Sox history and my choices for rock faces: 1963-1972: Yaz, Petrocelli, Tony C, Lonborg (Smith, Scott?) 1973-1982: Tiant, Lynn, Rice, Evans (Bill Lee, Eckersley?) 1983-1992: Boggs, Clemens, Rice, Hurst (Stanley?) 1993-2002: Clemens, Pedro, Nomar, Vaughn (Valantin?) 2003-2012: Manny, Ortiz, Pedro, VTek (Lester, Schilling, Pedey, Beckett, Paplebon, Wakefield, DeLowe?) 2013-2022 (projected): Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Sale (Pedey, Price, Kimbrel?)

I agree. VTek was very important in getting the best out of those pitching staffs. Pedey has been solid for a long time, but VTek was a huge part of those two rings.

That could happen, if an OF'er gets hurt, but by keeping Selsky on the 40 man, we have both him and Brentz as farm depth to the end of the season. Brentz becomes a minor league FA after this year.

I listed Bowden, but left severaal non factor players off my list. It wasn't meant to be a list that showed the percent of supplemental- picked players that helped, but rather it was meant to show that we did get some good players by letting player go to free agency. In my opinion, Theo did a fantastic job at knowing when to let our big players go. A few turned out to be questionable, most notably Beltre, VMart & Damon, but even in those cases, an argument can be made that the right choice was made. I was very happy with Theo's drafts, and many of those drafts were successful as a result of those supplemental picks. The 2005 draft, which is widely believed to be one of our best ever, was almost totally supplemental picks: 23 Ellsbury (OCab) 26 Hansen (DeLowe) traded with Manny for Jason Bay 42 Buchholz (Pedro) 45 Lowrie (OCab) Trade for Melancon who was traded for Holt 47 Bowden (DeLowe) 57 J Egan (Pedro) Theo did have a stretch, where most of his first picks were from #25-55, that did not look that good: 2006: 27 Jason Place 40 Kris Johnson 44 Caleb Clay 71 Masterson 2007 55 Nick Hagadone 62 Ryan Dent 2008 30 Casey Kelly 45 Bryan Price 2009 28 Reymond Fuentes 77 Alex Wilson 2010 20 Kolbrin Vitek 36 Bryce Brentz (Supp pick) 39 Anthony Ranaudo (Supp pick) 57 Brandon Workman (Supp pick) The turn around begins: 2011 (Note" all supp picks!) 19 Barnes (Supp) 26 Swihart (Supp) 36 Owens (Supp) 40 Bradley Supp) The Ben era begins 24 Marrero 31 Johnson (Supp) 37 Light (Supp) 87 Callahan Theo drafted Pedey in the second round of 2004, but how many other great picks in the top 80 did he have that were not supplemental picks? His highest draft picks from 2005 to 2011 (his last draft with the Sox) 19 Barnes 20 Vitek 26 Swihart 27 Place 28 Fuentes 30 Kelly ' From 2006 to 2010, Theo's draft picks were far from "impressive". Without the supplemental picks, his overall draft record would be unimpressive.

I'm not sure where you are getting your information about Harrison's defense, but the numbers show he is clearly a plus defender at 3B (and 2B). Career 3B UZR/150 +7.0 (In all fairness, he has been worse over the last 2 years at 3B) DRS +17 in 1777 innings (which is very very good 2B UZR/150 +2.4 DRS +20 in 2079 innings at 2B He sucks at SS and the OF.

Bruce will cost too much even as a FT player. Overpaying for someone to play part time is not a good choice, IMO. Young is not doing all that much worse than recent years. He's doing near a career best vs RHPs, and if he can get his act together vs LHPs, he may end up having a great year. The team has a .750 OPS over the last 28 days: Young is at .762. I still have total faith in Young as our 4th OF'er. If an OF'er gets hurt, I'll worry a little, but maybe Holt will be ready to take the 4th OF'er place in that instance, or we could add Brentz to the 40 man and take our chances with him. He was caalled up before after doing much worse than he is now.

He's hit RHPs better this year, so it's hard to say now, that he should only face LHPs. Since Beni struggles vs lefties, maybe that still should be the plan for the second half of 2017. I can't see Young being offered a contract this winter. I doubt Brentz is in the 2017 picture, but if he is, it will be (IMO) as minor league depth. He's not on the 40 man roster currently, so he will have minor league FA rights this winter. I'm pretty sure someone will give him a better shot at making their 25 man roster than we can. We may just go with Holt as our 4th OF'er or sign a cheap FA that can back up 3B and maybe 1B while giving us LF depth. Note: other minor league FAs: Jesse Barfield, Brian Bogusevic, Bryce Brentz, Dan Butler, Ryan Court, Jacob Dahlstrand, Matt Dominguez, Shawn Haviland, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kendrick, Deiner Lopez, Heiker Meneses, Edgar Olmos, Mike Olt, Mitchell Osnowitz, Jhonny Peralta, Tim Roberson, Jose Sermo, Aneury Tavarez, Herny Urrutia, Elih Villaneuva, Marcus Walden, Jordan Weems

Most of the picks were supplemental picks coming after the first round. In that context, we got some good players. (Note: I did not list players that flopped, so the percent of success is worse than shown here.)

Brentz wins AAA Home Run Derby

MLBTR... By Steve Adams | July 11, 2017 at 8:37pm CDT The Red Sox have “keen interest” in Phillies righty Pat Neshek, reports WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. The 36-year-old Neshek (who has already tossed a scoreless inning in tonight’s All-Star Game) is widely expected to be traded, given his status as an impending free agent on baseball’s worst team. The sidearmer has worked to a pristine 1.27 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and a 36.5 percent ground-ball rate thus far in 2017. And, unlike in many previous seasons, Neshek has held left-handed opponents in check quite well. Right-handed opponents are hitting .234/.253/.286 against Neshek this season, while lefties are hitting .180/.231/.313. The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported that the Sox had scouted Neshek over the weekend as well, and he’s also been linked to the Nationals this summer.

Manny was a huge factor in the Red Sox turn-around. I started a thread on that "other site", perhaps one of the longest most response threads ever, titled "No Manny- No Rings". I loved Manny. I know he brought on most of what happened at the end, but I do think Theo & Co. had a significant part in it.

I'm not defending the decision, but I think the philosophy was to let good players go, gain the comp picks and then use the money to sign other equal or better FAs. The theory is sound, but failed signings undermined the plan. Our history of comp picks is pretty impressive though. 1999 Casey Fossum (For losing Greg Swindell) 2005 Jacoby Ellsbury & Jed Lowrie (Orlandoi Cabrera) Clay Buchholz (Pedro Martinez) Craig Hansen & Michael Bowden (Derek Lowe) 2006 Daniel Bard (J Damon) 2010 Anthony Ranaudo (Billy Wagner) B Workman & B Brentz (Jason Bay) 2011 Matt Barnes & Henry Owens (VMart) Jackie Bradley & B Swihart (Beltre) 2012 Brian Johnson & D Marrero (Papelbon) 2014 Michael Kopech (Jacoby Ellsbury) Some of these players were traded for significant players. Think how we traded Nomar way back in 2004. We got OCab in return and ended up and we got Holt for Melancon. It's amazing how some of those decisions made over a decade ago are still rippling into the present day roster construction.

No to Chavis & Lakins for Harrison. I might give Ockimey and Beeks, especially if Pitt paid some cash.

I don't think we'll bring back Moreland, Young or Abad. We may not even add an OF'er to the 25 man roster once Young bolts, if Holt is healthy and still on the team. We may try to find a cheap corner IF/LF'er type over the winter as insurance. I could see us not making any major moves this winter. Here might be what our roster might look like with no major moves: 6 SP'ers: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Pom, Wright 6 RP'ers: Kimbrel, Smith, Thornburg, Kelly, Ross, Hembree 2 C: Leon & Vaz 2 1B: HRam (DH) & Travis 1 2B: Pedey 2 SS: Bogey & Marrero 2 3B: Devers & Rutledge 4 OF: Betts, JBJ, Beni & Holt (with Young, Moreland, Abad, Boyer, Fister & Pablo gone) The rest of the 40 man roster: 9-11 Keepers: SP: Johnson RP: Barnes, Scott, Workman, B Taylor, A Maddox, K Martin??? C (1B/3B/LF): Swihart IF: Marco Hernandez & T-W Lin OF: Steve Selsky??? (Hector Velazquez, Noe Ramirez, Henry Owens, Roenis Elias, Luis Ysla might be gone to make way for some rule 5 players.) Possible 4-6 Rule 5 additions (Devers listed above): J Beeks D Hernandez J Callahan Danny Mars (No Selsky?) J Witte T Stankiewicz T Buttrey C Shepherd J Cosart J Diaz Trey Ball

I would give Ockimey and Beeks for Prado, Phelps & some cash. I would give Ockimey for Frazier straight up but no more.

I wouldn't either, but my question was aimed at finding out the most you would trade for Frazier or Prado/Phelps. (Note: My post asked about Prado + Phelps, not just Prado.)

ERod is expected to join the club on the 17th. Some roster decisions are ahead.

I think it will be close. I don't think we will be able to sign anyone to over $10-15M and stay under the second tier penalty phase, unless we trade someone like Ross & Holt. If Smith and Thornburg are healthy we may trade Kelly.

I didn't mean to imply they won't call him up. I meant I do not think they are looking to or planning on giving him a long look in September. If they really are planning on that, then I'm not sure why he's not been called up already. I suppose 6 more weeks could be enough time to tip the balance from "not ML reaaddy" to "ML ready", but I'm skeptical. Again, I trust Sox management on determining when Devers is "ready".

I totally agree, and the ending was partially brought on by management's playing to the media to make Manny look like a injury-faker.

Agreed. We had 6 good starters this year and still ended up needing many starts from others. Wright's return woiuld not offset trading Porcello.

If we make a deal getting players that put us over the limit, trading Young may help us get back under. Prado can play LF, so maybe we could afford to trade Young after a deal for Prado. I don't see it happening. My point about trading salary to get under the limit was focused on next year, assuming we end up going over this year, and need to reset in 2018.

Probably true, but getting JBJ and Swihart should have been good enough. The problem was that the money saved by not bringing back Bektre and/or VMart was not spent wisely. The Sox have failed with almost all their biggest signings. Even the Manny signing, which helped bring us 2 rings looked bad at the end. (I might have missed a few.) $217M/7 Price (Jury out, but expected better at the front end of this deal--so far.) $160M/8 Manny (great signing that ended badly, but it was worth every penny. $154M/7 AGon (Having AGon allowed us to dump CC. He has not really been as great as expected since signing.) $142M/7 Crawford (Worst signing ever.) $95M/5 Sandoval (Horrible) $88M/4 HRam (Looking pretty bad.) $82.5M/4 Porcello (Won Cy Young the first year.) $82.5 Lackey (Up and down- hurt and healthy.0 $70M/5 JD Drew (One of the most debated signings and varying degrees of opinions on what he gave us.) $52M/6 Dice-K +plus a hefty posting fee (Overall, a bad deal.) $40M/4 Edgar Renteria (ended up costing over $20M/1- another bad deal) $39M Victorino (Great for one year, then kaput.) $36M/4 Julio Lugo (Failed to meet expectations.) $32M/2 Napoli (He made $13M/1 the year before-some with bonuses) $31M/4 J Damon (Great signing.) $26M/4 Jose Offerman (Horrible) $25.8M Matt Clement (Injury hurt this deal) $19M/3 Keith Foulke (One magical season made this worth it, but he fell off a cliff afterwards.)