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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Dispute this: Last month, the Sox are 15-12 (a 90 win pace.)
  2. moonslav59
    Next 10: BOS: 6 vs BAL (doing better) 4 vs NYY NYY: 4 v BOS, 3 vs WSH, 2 v TBR, 1 v CWS SEA: 3 v PHI, ATH, SDP and 1 v CLE TOR: 3 v PIT, MIA, MIN and 1 v CIN (It gets harder after this) HOU: 4 v BAL and 3 v DET & COL
  3. moonslav59
    I never disputed a single number. Why ask that? I asked why the 1 month sample size means more than 2, 3 or 4 month sample sizes.
  4. moonslav59
    Jh Garcia played 1B, yesterday.
  5. moonslav59
    What extra significance does one month have? Is it proven that most players rarely improve upon their last 30 day numbers? I've quotes last month stats, too, but I never even dream that these numbers show anything more than what they just did. I do think hot hand should play more and slumping players, less, in general, but history shows most players go up and down, all the time.
  6. moonslav59
    He should be in CF, agreed. We should have traded an OF'er for a SP'er, last winter. It is what it is: a big mistake by Brez. There is no reason to think Rafaela will continue to slide on O. I do agree, his defense suffers at 2B. Maybe we can play Romy at 2B and Lowe at 1B, but then we have to get Cora to bench Yoshida, so an OF'er DHs.
  7. moonslav59
    So? He's gained 47 in the last 2 months. +61 in 3 months +108 in 4 months But only 1 month counts, I guess.
  8. moonslav59
    Ohhh, only the last month counts, now. Got it. Why should that count any more than the last 2 months, 3 months or even 2 weeks? Could it be because it fits your narrative of doom & gloom? You brought up the offense. Clearly Narvaez and Rafaela are significantly above average, if you count D and running. Narvaez is 8th in fWAR among catcher. Rafaela is 4th in fWAR in CF, and he's played 2B many games. If you really think they are even near average, then we are too far apart to even have a discussion.
  9. moonslav59
    Out of 350 players with 150+ PAs, number 135 has a 1.5 fWAR (the mean of 270 player or 9 per 30 teams) Teams should have 4-5 players above 1.5: we have 8. Romy is at 1.2 in just 66 games. I'm guessing we have more players over 1.2 and 1.5 than any other team. If I'm wrong, maybe 1 or 2 teams have the same or more.
  10. moonslav59
    Romy is a top 30 batter in MLB. Rafaela and Narvaez are slightly above average, but call them average. Among catchers, being near .720 is significantly above average, and he and Wong are plus on D. Take a look at other teams through the same lense you look at the Sox. Almost all have way more below avg players than we do. Our strength is in balance and having very few bad players or even slightly below players. Concentrating on just O is kinds weird, too, but we hold our own on O.
  11. moonslav59
    Less than 60 pitchers in MLB have a higher fWAR and more IP than Bello and Giolito at 1.3. Crochet is #2 in fWAR (5.0) ERA- 4. Crochet at 57 22. Bello at 76 36. Giolito at 85 That's far from average. Best closer in MLB: average?
  12. moonslav59
    Rafaela has been an above avg hitter and GG type CF'er. Teams win with guys like Rafaela, many many times. Too many Toro's, Hicks' and ICampbells can do a team in, but we don't have too many that bad.
  13. moonslav59
    Most championship teams have many players near average and several above or highly above average. They also have precious few very bad players. This team lacks a mega star hitter, beyond Bregman, who was not excellent in recent years on offense. The MLB OPS is .719, and most competitive teams are above that mark, and the Sox are +.033. MIL, PHI, NYM, DET, SEA, HOU, SDP, ATL, KCR, TEX & CLE are below us. Three competitive teams are ahead of us. .776 NYY .770 LAD .768 TOR .752 T CHC & BOS How is this average? 270 players (30 teams x 9 players) have 225+ PAs. 120 of them are below .719. That's an average of about 4 per team: we have one: Toro, and he is about to be replaced. (Ref does not qualify.) We have 2 in the top 23 players (Bregman & Romy) + 1 more than avg 3 in the top 36 (Anthony) + 1 more than avg. 4 in top 58 (Abreu) +2 more than avg 5 in top 81 (Duran) +2 7 in top 143 (Rafaela & Narvaez) +2
  14. moonslav59
    Our pen has the 4th best fWAR in MLB. fWAR is largely influenced by more IP, and yet the Sox are 18th in pen IP. Our pen is 2nd in ERA-. You don't get ranked this highly with just one pitcher who places 4th in PAs against (Chapman.) Whitlock (.568 OPSA) and Slaten (.465,) when healthy have done a great job. Weissert has been our #3 pen guy with Slaten out, and has a .670 OPSA and has faced the second most batters from the pen. Ideally, he'd be our #4, but he's okay as a #3. Wilson has slipped, som. He's down to .679, now. Maybe a Bernardino (.566) call-up will help. We will likely need someone to step it up.
  15. moonslav59
    SFG gave up two great pitchers: Hicks and Harrison! LOL
  16. moonslav59
    Sorry. My bad. It's not for me to say where a conversation should lead. It is too early to judge.
  17. moonslav59
    Me, too. Even Bloom... '21 -105 Elmer Rod (got us Narvaez), 226 Dobbins, 496 Guerrero '22 -79 Anthony '23 - Campbell Brez... '24 -50 Tolle
  18. moonslav59
    My guess is the success rate of trying to put a % on players who have been in the minors already for 2-3+ years in much higher than going by what slot they were drafted years ago.
  19. moonslav59
    I could end up being wrong. IMO, the chances are barely better than 50-50, so this isn't a hill to die on, but all 3 have shown promise- 2 of them after being drafted. Many prospects show right away they are never going to make it. treating YRod & Holobetz as if they were just drafted is not really scientific. Phillips- okay. I happen to think he's got a better than 18% chance, but 18 is not far off.
  20. moonslav59
    Toro has been bad his whole career (.638 before 2025.) He had one nice 16 game stretch and sucked before and after that. Lowe might end up sucking, too, but he's not old, so maybe he was just having a tough stretch. He just turned 30. He has a decent .771 career OPS. .770 since '22 .740 since '23 Both blow Toro away, especially the Toro- post Devers trade.
  21. moonslav59
    You didn't say you think they will get hot? We went back and forth on this, and you liked their chances.
  22. moonslav59
    Nobody is saying we think MIL did not do well. I even said I'd take the trade back, in hindsight. That is a separate issue. The talk is about what are the chances one of the 3 reach a 1.0 fWAR once.
  23. moonslav59
    What are the odds that one from an 18%, a 17% and a 16% do well?
  24. moonslav59
    You are right. I thought he had one more option left. DFA him. Campbell can be the call-up, if Lowe gets hurt or sucks, badly.
  25. moonslav59
    We missed a golden chance to gain on TOR and keep pace with those who won, today. s***** loss.
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