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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Sox claim Nthanial Lowe off waivers.
moonslav59 replied to Randy Red Sox's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
My guess is we keep Toro (in Woo) and add Mayer to our long list of 60 day IL players to make room on the 40. -
Marcelo Mayer Set to Undergo Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
If Campbell sucked at 2B, he'd most likely suck worse at SS. -
Please. Nick, come on. He's had way more good games than bad, and many in high leverage games. Whitlock is 3rd on the Sox in High Leverage PAs Against and has a .681 OPSA in those games, before today. He has the 2nd most PAs Against in Late & Close situations (141 PAs to Chapman's 152) .377 Chapman .526 Whitlock B4 today .699 Weissert (117 PAs) .709 Wilson (84) .520 Slaten (70) .983 Hicks (40) Whitlock is a big plus who had a bad game, today.
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Of course, but it's not all that bad, either. If he had said 1.5 or 2.0, my opinion changes. I really like Phillips and think Holobetz has a decent shot. YRod is a dice roll. Priester does have a 2,0 bWAR and 0.9 fWAR. Some Sox players with a 0.8+ fWAR in a season since 2021: 0.8 Wink (23) Wilson (25) Ref (25) 0.9 Dobbins (25 in 11 GS) Yoshida (24) Arroyo (21) 1.0 Paxton (23) Taylor (21) Richards (21) Ref (22) 1.1 Criswell (24) Wong (24) 1.2 McGuire (22) 1.3 Ref (24) 1.5 Wacha (22) 1.7 DHam (24) 1.8 Schreiber (22) Vaz (22) These guys went over the low bar or came close.
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I'm sure several good Sox players, especially at ages 19 (YRod) 21 Phillips (no farm games, yet) and 23 (Holobetz) were not top 30, at some point in their farm careers. Abreu was ranked 29th, Dobbins began at #24, DHam was 30th and lower, once and gave us a huge fWAR season in 2024. Elmer Rod was 25th and traded for Narvaez. Rafaela was in the Sox system for several years (since 2018) before jumping to #19 in APR '22. Crawford was below 30 and then 23rd in summer '22. Wong was 18th to 20th in '21. Bello was below 30th and 19th in 2020. Duran was 15th and lower, at times. Hell, Devers was 18th and lower. We got Betts in 2011 and he debuted at #10. Vazquez started pretty low. JBJ was 19th and lower, at times. I could find more.
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I have no idea of those numbers and don't think they are useful in projecting the chances these three have or making a significant MLB showing. Phillips is #14 Holobetz is #31 and will likely be top 25-30, next rankings YRod is #34 and has not been very impressive, but was considered the most promising part of the trade, when it was made. Also, Priester's final 2025 numbers are not complete, yet. He can still go up or down. Would I want Priester back for those three? Yes, mainly because we have a shot in 2025, and we could use a 4/5 SP'er, right now, and we needed one earlier, too. That does not change my opinion on the chances one of these three guys make a MLB impact, someday. Holobetz has a decent .709 OPS Against and a 3.57 ERA in A+ and AA combined. The AA numbers are a small sample size but the 1.87 xERA and .557 OPSA look pretty damn good. I think he moves into our top 25 the next rankings. Phillips is hard to project, but SPs.com says this: High-ceiling right-hander with a wide range of outcomes. Has great size and athleticism and huge velocity. Questions about delivery and strike-throwing ability lead some to think he is best suited for a bullpen role, but has the build of a starter and will be developed there. Fastball and slider both have above-average potential and some think his changeup also has upside. Low-usage arm in college, so could have considerable untapped potential. YRod is also hard to project, as he is just 19 and in his 3rd season of minor league ball- now w GRE w a .661 OPS. He has a non-flattering summary with SPs,com; Potential solid high-minors contributor. Ceiling of a reserve outfielder. Lacks a carrying tool and is not overly projectable even though he is young for High-A. Needs to add strength and make more impact to have a chance against more advanced pitching. Approach metrics are solid, but lack of impact limits his ceiling. Could stand to improve defensively, and if he can stick in center, that would raise his profile, but he currently looks best suited in a corner. I still like the chances one of these three gives us a 1.0+ fWAR someday.
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Romy is better on D at 2B than Rafaela, and he is a back-up option on the 26 man roster now, hence the reduced need for DHam.
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I never came close to calling Rafaela at 2B a disaster. I actually think it is our best 2B solution with Mayer out of the equation. It is just not ideal. My point is, we do not need DHam, until the SEP call-ups, and having 3 catchers adds about as much value as adding DHam. There is value to having DHam as a late inning D guy or PR'er. It would allow Rafaela to move to CF, late in games, and improve the OF D, too. Is this worth more than having a 3rd catcher and allowing us to PH for Womg or the slumping Narvaez without worrying about the back-up catcher getting hurt, or PH'ing for the 2nd C, later on? Maybe- maybe not. Both ideas make some sense. I was just responding to your comment that 3 catchers make "NO sense." Adding Campbell would demote Toro, so that is a separate issue.
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My point was that 4 OF'ers could not all play, without Rafaela at 2B, so there is no need for calling up a 2Bman (DHam) otherwise an OF'er would sit, or DHam would never play, except as a late inning D guy at 2B (Rafaela moving to CF to improve the OF D.) That does have value but not all that much.
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A look at some tiny sample size results of this year's draft picks: 1. Witherspoon (15th pick) #4 Prospect N/A '25 CBA. Phillips (33rd for Priester) #14 Prospect N/A '25 C2. Godbout (75th) #23 Prospect GRE 1.071 OPS in 6 games 3. Eyanson (87th) #15 Prospect N/A in '25 4. M White (118th) #37 Prospect 5. Foutch (148th) #44 N/A 6. Finley (178th) #58 N/A 7. Patton (208th) #52 N/A 8. Brown (238th) NR 9. Mayers (268th) NR 10. M Martin (298th) SAL .664 in 11 games 11. B Morgan (328th, but $350/500K bonus) #48 N/A Top IFA bonuses: $1.4M D Soto DSL (both) #11 prospect. .804 in 46 games $950K H Rivas #32 Prospect. DSL .790 in 45 games $700K E Alfonso NR DSL .585 in 43 gms $500K S Delzine #25 Prospect. DSL 4.82 in 9 IP $500K H Ramos #28 Prospect. DSL .827 in 36 games $350K C Cordero DSL 1.79 in 40 IP NR but might be next rankings Top 2024 Picks: (1. Montgomery and 4. Ehrhard were traded) 2. Tolle (50th) #1 prospect 3.55 ERA in 87 IP GRE/POR/WOO 3. Neely (86th) #50 N/A 5. Clarke (148th) #6 prospect. 4.03 in 38 SAL/GRE 6. Aita (177th) #33 prospect. 3.97 leads org in IP at 100. SAL/GRE 7. Turner (207th) NR FCL/GRE .597 in 49 gms 8. C Cason (237th, but $1.25M bonus) #27th Prospect very tiny sample size Wehunt #26 Prospect 3.99 w POR Holobetz #31 prospect (drafted by MIL- Priester trade) 3.57 ERA in 76 IP GRE/POR H White, D Futrell (2.14 in 46 SAL/GRE), S Brooks, B Tygart (#49/ 0.00 in 7IP SAL), S Sprague (3.80 ERA in 85 IP) & J Gartrell 2024 IFA Fajardo (by CWS- traded Booser for him) #18 Prospect. 2.33 in 58 FCL/SAL Asencio NR SAL .654 in 61 gms Brito NR DSL 1.082 in 42 games D Reyes on IL #51. FCL 14.33 ERA in 16 IP Fermin FCL #57. .827 in 48 games Gonzales #13 prospect. .785 in 75 gms FCL/SAL Azocar FCL/SAL #21 Prospect. .661 in 69 games Travieso 38th ranked 3.13 in 55 FCL/SAL J Rodriguez (C) 39th Prospect .768 FCL in 28 games
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The whole "strength of remaining schedule" thing may be overblown. We weathered our tough stretch, very well, but here is what I found: Top AL Contenders Strength of Schedule: 5. Texas (just about out of it, despite MVP's call that they might get "hot.") 9. TBR 9just about out of it, despite a very nice plus run differential) 11. TOR (good to see is harder than ours) 15. CLE (hanging in there despite teams around them doing much more at the deadline. They were sellers! Go figure!) 19. BOS (gotta take the easier teams seriously) 20. DET (not really our competition) 21. SEA (may win the ALW) 26. HOU (neck & neck w SEA for ALW and WC berth) 27. NYY (sad to see, but they have been a bad team for over 2 months, now. 31-37 since May 30th! That's a sample size of 42% of the season.) TOR still has to play... 3 v MIL, HOU, BOS, NYY, Cincy & KCR. Their "easier" opponents are not all push-overs: 7 vs TBR, 3 vs MIN, TEX, BAL and MIA & PIT. The Yanks have 17 games vs CWS, WSH & BAL, We have 15 vs PIT, ATH & BAL, -
Marcelo Mayer Set to Undergo Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I've read opening day for Casas and Mayer. I'd say Bregman is the best bet to stay healthy, followed by (gasp) Story, then Mayer & Casas are tied.

