moonslav59

"Ego?" This is the best Sox team since 2018. If this is hurting, I don't wanna know helping.

Tee off on the Williams dude!

Judge is just a monster! He's over 100 points higher than the #2 guy, Ohtani. He's about 150 points higher than #3-4-5, Springer, Schwarber & Soto. Some context? 150 points is about the difference between Bregman and Rafaela.

If it was me, I'd have played him at corner OF in AAA, once he was demoted. I can see the argument for 1B, but I just don't see that as his long term position. I don't want a utility player that sucks on defense, but can play 6-7 positions. He'd have to hit .800 to be worth it, which he might be able to do, but I'll just take an .800 DH or corner OF'er who can probably play better D by playing there FT.

It has reached absurd levels, this year for the Sox. All year: Sandoval, Crawford, Hendriks (Perales) Almost all year: Houck, Dobbins, Casas, Wink Significant time: Bregman, Anthony, Abreu, Slaten, Mayer, Fitts, Yoshida, Guerrero, Murphy, Kelly Some time: Bello, Gio, Narvaez, Refsnyder, Bernardino, Criswell, Burdi, Moran I probably missed someone. The list of no time or very little time missed for injury is: Crochet, Chapman, Whitlock, Weissert & Wilson Duran, Rafaela, Story, Romy & Wong

LOL. I'm not sure they view Marte as the hot potato Devers was, but he did cause some major issues. How about Harrison, Hicks, Sandlin and Casas? On a more serious note: Marte has a tax line at $19.4M for 5 more years. I wonder if somehow we could wiggle Yoshida into a package... something like Campbell, Yoshida, Sandlin and Clarke?

That's the kicker, to me. More money plus more teams in the race to the end. Take this year, while TEX & CLE are still hanging onto hope, TEX at 77-70 would be the 8th team, now and... -1.5 CLE -3.0 KCR (realistically still in the race at 74-73) -5.0 TBR (hanging on by a thread at 72-75.) In the NL, instead of CIN & SFG being 1.5 GB NYM for the 7th slot, they'd be tied for the th slot with... -1.5 AZ at 73-74 -2.5 STL at 72-75 That's pretty significant.

Agreed, and if it was about saving time, by playing 3 games in 3 days, maybe it would make a little sense, but they all get a day off in the series. Remember, the bye teams are waiting for the first round to end.

Teams with players at a 2.7 fWAR or better: 7 BOS 5 NYY (3 over 4.1, including Judge at 8.3- higher than our 1+2 combined) 5 TOR (4 over 3.8- our highest) 3 SEA (2 over 4.9) 3 DET 2 HOU, TEX & CLE NL Teams 6 LAD (5 over 3.1) 5 CHC (3 over 4.1) 5 MIL (4 over 3.0) 4 SFG (5 w Devers BOS+SFG) 4 NYM (2 over 5.0) 4 AZ (2 over 5.8 and 3 over 4.2) 3 PHI & SDP

We started off 2025 thinking maybe we'd have 3 everyday players in the top 40: Devers, Bregman and Duran. Bregman got hurt. Devers got traded. Duran is #42 with a 3.5 fWAR 52. Bregman 3.2 60. Story 3.1 We did have more over 2.7 than maybe we expected: 70. Narvaez & Rafaela 2.8 76. Anthony & Abreu 2.7 (might have been higher if healthy & not a platoon) If Anthony stays healthy, we could easily have 5 guys over 3.0 in 2026 (Anthony, Duran, Bregman, Story & Abreu) with Narvaez & Rafaela as hopefuls to top 3.0. 4 of these guys are OF'ers, so one will need to DH (Duran?) play 2B (Rafaela) or be traded.

I think Abreu is closer to Duran than what BTV indicates, He's better on D and has more control years. I'm not sure what sort of combination it might take, but I could see trading Duran, Campbell, Mayer (or Arias), Clarke, Sandlin and maybe other mid level prospects for Ryan or Keller plus Marte. We'd need more than that to get two. (Could we add Rafaela and leave ourselves with just 3 OF'ers with obe being the PASSWORD? or Yoshida in lf.) Two big trades saves money needed to bring Breggie back or sign Alonso or E Suarez (no Mayer trade, as he'd be needed to take Breggie's place at 3B.)

Cease scares the hell out of me. If we pay for Ranger Suarez, I doubt JH ponies up for Bregman and another costly bat like Alonso, Suarez or Schwarber. I'm obsessed with Ryan, because I think JH will not go past the second tax line in year two of the tax. That limits how much we can spend on Bregman and others. We have a bunch of extensions kicking in, next year. Luckily, we don't have major arbs coming up. We can get Duran in 2026 for the $8M option, and Lowe might cost over $10M, if we decide to go to arb with him, but there are no other high cost arbs. I'd be okay trading less for Keller, of just paying Gio to come back, but then we're dipping into the winter budget so deeply, adding another big FA or two becomes harder.

As soon as I convince myself trading Rafaela or Abreu makes more sense, I read a post like this and go back to thinking a Duran trade makes the most sense. However, if we do it, we absolutely need to bring Bregman back PLUS a big bat at 1B, 2B or DH or two big bats, if Bregman bolts. I'm also very confident that Jh Garcia can be a very nice 4th OF'er, who is a good defender, too. Maybe Campbell can be, too, but to trade for Ryan and or Marte, one or both of these two RHBs will likely be part of a trade, along with Duran. (Or another trade.) Duran's age worries me. He's not as good on D as Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony and Jh Garcia, but he's a damn good offensive player on a team with needs to improve their offense. Trading him mean we need to add even more to the O.

Recently, some things have changed to the 2026 roster outlook, namely premptively adding Early and Tolle to the 40, before their Rule 5 year came due. It would have helped the winter roster crunch by holding off until after opening day 2026, when we can move Houck (and others) to the 60 Day IL. With so many players on the 60 Day IL, now, even when you subtract the FAs-to-be, we don't have a ton of wiggle room on the everyday side of the roster. I doubt we can afford to keep the Toro, Eaton and Ali Sanchez types through the winter, especially if we want to add a big bat or two and keep or replace N Lowe and Bregman. Here is a look at who is currently slated to be on the 2026 Forty Man Roster: Houck is out for 2026 but will be on the winter 40 until opening day. 23 Pitchers: Crochet, Bello, Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Fitts, Harrison, Criswell, Early, Tolle, Perales Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Guerrero, Moran, Murphy, Winckowski, Kelly, Hicks, I Campbell 18 Everyday Players: Anthony, Story, Abreu, Duran, Narvaez, Rafaela, Romy, Mayer, K Campbell, Jh Garcia Lowe, Casas, Wong, Yoshida, Grissom, Sogard, Eaton, Sanchez That's 42 Players. Maybe we add Sandlin or Mullins on Rule 5, but maybe nobody. Not under strict team control: Bregman, Giolito (140 IP option) Refsnyder, Wilson, Matz, Hendriks, May To me, the players most likely to be traded, DFA'd or non tendered: Ali Sanchez (begin 2026 with just 2 catchers on the 40.) Eaton Grissom Hicks (no options) I Campbell Sogard Yoshida Lowe or Casas This could easily get us to 40 or less, as we will likely sign or re-sign someone.

I can see the logic in trading away the injury-risk players like Mayer, and the huge question marks on offense like Rafaela. I could also see trading the positionless Campbell, but I'm not for handing any of these three away. (Not that you are.) Maybe I'm too high on Jh Garcia as a viable "non noodle" bat as the guy who is now 1-2 injuries away from the line-up, if we trade Rafaela. Maybe I'm relying on Story staying healthy for 2 years in a row by trading away a likely "non noodle" bat as his, Bregman's and whoever we play at 2B reserve. Maybe trading away Campbell comes back to bite me in the ass as he might become one our best "non noodle bats" in the future. We got choose a lane, this winter. There is a bit of a contradiction involved here, since both of us agree we need "non noodle bats" in reserve, but here I am suggesting we trade away our depth (Mayer at 3B, SS and 2B), starting OF'er (Rafaela not Duran or Abreu) and possible future big bats (Campbell.) We shouldn't need to trade all 3 to get a Joe Ryan, so it's not as bad it sounds, but if we can pull that off, keep Bregman and sign Alonso or Suarez, I'd be thrilled. To get Ryan and Marte over Alonso or Suarez, we'd need to trade those 3 plus other serious talent, like some young pitching.

As much as I have focused on adding a solid 1/2 type SP'er this coming winter, I can see the argument that adding a big bat is more important, and that means two, if Bregman bolts. With all the young arms in the system and 4-5 promising arms coming off the IL for 2016, maybe we can roll the roll the dice there and go large on offense. I'm still firmly in the "add a Joe Ryan type" camp, I'd love to see us add another big bat, like Alonso, Marte or Suarez. I'd love Schwarber, but DH only players are problematic to a team with 3-4 guys on the roster who look like DH is their best landing spot (Yoshida, Refsnyder, Casas, Campbell and maybe eventually Duran. We also have an OF overload that might be alleviated by DH'ing one of them, daily. If JH would see this open window for what it is, and open his damn wallet, maybe we could keep Bregman, add Alonso, Suarez or Marte and pull off a trade for Joe Ryan.

Nope, but he fills the hole Bregman's line-up loss. It also forces us to rely on Mayer at 3B over Lowe/Casas at 1B. I see that as similar issues.

That would be more than acceptable, to me, and it does not mean Mayer is penciled in as FT'er anywhere. Where does he fit in this scheme?

If I had to guess, I'd say he's with the Sox, next year. They will rework the deal by maybe adding a year (from 2 more to 3 more,) while keeping the AAV about the same or a little less. I'm not so worried about losing him as I was when he was over .900.

I agree and said as much a month or two ago. Abreu's RF defense carries a lot of value, too, especially when compared to Ref. (Not so much Anthony.) In a way, Duran deserves to be platooned more than Abreu, but I'm fine with him playing FT. A Yoshida-Ref DH platoon makes sense. It also takes one OF'er out of the OF rotation to make room for another. With 2 OF'ers on the IL, that is not so important, but when all are healthy, it is. Romy could also platoon DH with Yoshida, especially in 2026, if Ref retires, but he's needed more as a 1B platoon with Lowe of a 2B platoon with DHam. IMO, we find a way to dump Yoshida and go with something like this in 2026: Vs RHP DH: L Duran LF: L Anthony CF: R Rafaela RF: L Abreu Vs LHP DH: R Ref or Romy LF: L Anthony CF: R Rafaela or L Duran RF: L Abreu (R Jh Garcia/R Campbell)

Being a platoon hitter who only starts vs LHPs is a bit unfortunate, but it is the reality of the game and human nature. Ref's offensive value is less than Abreu due to this, but it is what it is. One interesting point is that guys like Ref and Romy are minimized, because they "suck vs RHPs," when in reality, they actually suck less vs RHPs than many more highly regarded players do vs LHPs. Refsnyder's splits (v L & v R) .986/.632 in '25 .941/.733 in '24 (more PAs v R than L) .783/.581 in '23 Romy 1.032/.704 (more PAs vs R than L) .745/.695 (pretty close to even R v L PAs) Abreu .721/.828 '25 .532/.825 '24 .400/.928 '23 Duran .581/.874 '25 .665/.910 '24 .749/.841 '23 How about 2024 to 2025 combined? v R/v L .894 Duran (939 PAs)/.626 (431) PAs more t 2:1 .827 Abreu (711 PAs)/.624 (131) PAs more than 5:1 .707 Refsnyder (218)/ .962 (273) PAs about 4:5 .630 Romy (242)/.957 (264) PAs about even The RHB platoon players play a higher percent vs RHPs than the LHB do vs LHPs, and yet look at the overall OPS: .846 Refsnyder .809 Duran .797 Romy .795 Abreu

Since Bregman determines his own destiny, we can't count on him for 2026. Here is who we have under team control: 1B: Lowe (last arb or non tender?) Casas, Romy, Campbell 2B: Mayer/Story, DHam, Rafaela, Romy, Sogard SS: Mayer/Story, Rafaela, Sogard, Romy, DHam (Arias) 3B: Mayer/Story, Romy, Sogard (Romero) There are just way to many question marks muddying the waters.

If Mayer is healthy, he's starting on my MLB club. My point was we cannot pencil him in as the FT 2Bman, 3Bman or SS for the entire 2026 season, and we can rely on DHam, Sogard or Rafaela to cover, when he is out. To me, if Bregman goes, we need to add Alonso or Suarez. Marte would be fine in trade, but for what? Torres is not a suitable replacement for Bregman. Even if Bregman comes back and we put Story and Mayer at middle infield, who is the back up? Can we risk seeing DHam, Rafaela, Romy, Casas and Lowe covering the right side infield, if Mayer goes down, for yet one more year?

Agreed, but Nate over exceeding expectations, as well as Pearce, too helped seal that legacy.

I totally agree. We can not pencil in Mayer as a FT 2Bman or 3Man. We need to plan on a 150 day IL stint. I'm not happy with Suarez at 3B: but he could be plan B, if Mayer is hurt, but then we'd need a plan B at 1B, and I'm not sure we can say Casas is for the same reasons as Mayer. I'm not sure we pay Lowe $10M to be plan B (Saurez to DH as Lowe plays 1B.)