moonslav59

No walks for Bello was sweet. I Campbell was a promising get via trade, but he looks like toast, now. Gotta think Criswell, Murphy or Bernardino can do better. I'm hoping this Story is the true Story. Abreu fell below .800, and Romy is slipping a bit, too. This game got a little too close for comfort, but a win is a win. SEA lost and the Yanks are losing.

Anthony is all we hoped and dreamed he'd be. He can even get better! (I expect his power numbers will rise as he reached his mid 20's.) He looks like a 10 year vet, now.

I wish him and the Brewers well. The Brewers were my first favorite baseball team, as Iived in Milwaukee when the started there. Tommy Harper was my favorite player, and when we moved to Maine about the same time Harper was traded to BOS, I became a Sox fan. I was also in MIL when the Packers were dominating the NFL and the Bucks drafted Lew Alcindor and won championship (after we moved.) I'm still a Bucks and Packers fan.

I often say Cora knows better than I, when I make my suggestions.

Narvaez was banged up and overused. I think the 3rd catcher is just temporary.

Of course, Yoshida shuts me up with his first AB! LOL

That's what the numbers suggest. Here are the other SP'er numbers: Crochet: 2.67 w Narvaez (19 GS/121 IP and .617 OPSA) 1.74 w Wong (5 GS/31 IP and .597 OPSA) unbalanced samples but better numbers w Wong. Giolito: 3.93 w Narvaez (16 GS/87 IP and .731 OPSA) 2.29 w Wong (3GS/20 IP and .614 OPSA) Same summary as Crochet... better w Wong Buehler: 5.50 w Narvaez (18 GS/90 IP and .845 OPSA) 5.06 w Wong (3GS/16 IP and .699 OPSA) unbalanced but much better w Wong. Dobbins looks about even: 3.99 w Narvaez (.709) 3.95 w Wong (.729) Slight edge to Narvaez. Houck was horrible with Wong in 3 GS (12.08/1.190) and better with Narvaez (7.20/.826) but best with Sabol in 2 GS (4.91/.724)

It was cherry-picked, of course, but while the "other 3 starts" showed a very nice 2.29 ERA, the other numbers were not great: 4.18 FIP (23 H+BB+HBP in less than 20 IP is not bad, but not all that good, either. One could argue a 4.18 FIP is barely worse than his 3.98 FIP before those chosen 3 starts, but it did show some mild slippage before the real bad game, his last outing. The guy has been a big reason the Brewers are soaring, right now. We certainly could have used him over the revolving door at #5 SP'er and even over Buehler, our de facto #4. Here are the numbers of our #5 Sp'ers: 0.00 Bernardino 1 GS (1.2 IP as opener) .619 OPS Against 1.29 Criswell 1 GS .773 OPSA as SP 2.79 D May 2 GS .641 4.25 Dobbins 11 GS .712 4.43 Newcomb 5 GS .826 Priester in 17 GS (92 IP) 3.03 ERA & .715 OPS Against It's eye-opening to see that the 15 GS by Dobbins, May, Criswell and the opener game have very comparable numbers and a better OPSA. (Newcombs numbers hurt the comp.) What's really hurt our rotation is the Buehler-Houck combo, and it is doubtful Priester would have take any of their starts away. Houck has the worst SP'er numbers in 2025: 9 GS 8.04 ERA/ .920 OPS Against Buehler is bottom 20% in MLB at... 21 GS 5.43 ERA/ .824 OPSA Our 4 starter has been weaker than our perceived #5. (Houck actually started the year as our #2 on paper.)

Despite these recent graduations, our farm still looks pretty strong: Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Narvaez, Dobbins, Fitts & Guerrero '23-'24: Abreu, Bello, Rafaela, Slaten, Casas, Wong, DHam, Bernardino & Kelly Since many of our recent grads are everyday players with several years of control, the fact that our current farm looks pitching heavy, maybe that will not be an issue. On the everyday front, these position lack long term solutions: 3B: Bregman may bolt. We have Mayer as an option and Romero near ML ready (#10 prospect) If Arias wins the SS job, Mayer and Romero would be available, here. (Story could play 2B in 2027, or even 2026, if Mayer can play SS) SS: Story's time is up in 2 years. Mayer looks ready, if healthy. Arias (#2 offers some big hopes- see 2B and 3B) 2B: Mayer looks like the best option, as Campbell's defense looks too bad to be a future option, here. DHam, Grissom and Romero could win a slot, here. The best hope might be Arias making it as our starting SS and Mayer or Romero being needed at SS & 3B. 1B: Casas, Campbell & Romy all have some promise, but we have very little farm depth, here, unless we convert Garcia, Gonzales or someone else to 1B. #2 Catcher: Jo Garcia looks too far away and others look more like 1B/DH types. Our pitching looks extremely deep, as so many top prospects are months to 2 years away, and many pitchers should be returning from long IL stints: SP w MLB experience: Crochet, Giolito (140 IP option trigger) Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Houck ('27) Harrison, Fitts, Criswell (Maybe Wink or Murphy) ML Ready or near ML Ready pitching prospects: Tolle, Perales, Early, Uberstine, Sandlin (RP?) Drohan, I Coffey & maybe Clarke, Witherspoon, Phillips, Holobetz, Valera, Paez, Monegro, Eyanson, Aita and others by 2027. Pen: We'll need a closer, then we have: Whitlock & Slaten followed by a lot of promise but not much proven: converted SP'ers, Weissert, Hicks, Wink, Murphy, Moran, Bernardino, Guerrero, Mullins, Song, Ingrassia and more

Here is a bold suggestion: Trade... Duran (3 arbs), DHam (1 pre-arb + 3 arbs), Brandon Clarke (#6 prospect) Connelly Early (#8 prospect) & Mikey Romero (#10 prospect) for Joe Ryan (3 arbs left) and Kody Clemens (4 arbs left) Trade... Abreu (1 pre-arb + 3 arbs), Yoshida ($36M/2), David Sandlin (#9 prospect) Miguel Bleis (#12 prospect) & Jedixson Paez (#17 prospect) for Keller ($56M/3) and Brian Reynolds ($76M/5 salary dump) $28M tax hit x 3, then just Reynolds for 2 more. (PIT saves about $95M, while we add $10M a year to our tax line. This a swap of salary dumps, with reynolds being a much larger one, which lessens the needed return for Keller, who looks like a bargain at $56M/3.) Our 26 Man roster could look like this: SP: Crochet, Ryan, Keller, Bello, Gio (or Crawford/Dobbins/Sandoval/Harrison/Tolle/Fitts/Criswell...) RP: FA Closer, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Hicks, Bernardino, Moran, Wink (or a converted SP'er, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Sandlin, Mullins) C: Narvaez & Wong 1B: +FA or Casas & Romy (Campbell) 2B: Clemens & Mayer SS: Story & Mayer 3B: Bregman & Mayer LF: Garcia/Reynolds/Refsnyder CF: Rafaela & Garcia RF: Anthony & Garcia/Refsnyder DH: Reynolds/Casas/Romy

Exactly, and since none of them appear to be 1B options, and playing Rafaela at 2B at anytime other than short emergencies is a waste of talent, a trade HAS TO HAPPEN. Add to this the Password knocking loudly on the door and OF being Campbell's likely best landing spot, it becomes even more clear and urgent. (Then, Ref might come back for another year, and Yoshida is a depth option for LF.) Here is the biggest reason for a trade: The value of Abreu, Duran or Rafaela as an OF'er for another team is way higher that the value one of these guys has for the Sox as a DH, 2Bman, 1Bman or gasp... a bench player. It's really that simple. The much greater value one of those three has to another team is the impetuous for a trade being made. This is no slight on any or our OF'ers. I value all of them very highly. They all have very high value, and it is that value that can help us land a player at a greater position of need than our logjammed OF. Depending on the Bregman situation, we have 3-4 great needs and 2-3 secondary needs: Not in order... Great Needs 3B or Bregman #2 SP Closer (Chapman?) 1B (Casas/Campbell/Romy?) or 2B (Mayer/Romy?) Secondary: Corner IF depth or 2B (see above) Back-up Catcher (even if for AAA) RP We could package other players or prospects with the chosen OF'er to increase the return value. I still like the idea of going hard for Ryan, with maybe a guy like Keller as a fallback option. No way PIT wants to pay him. We now have some pitching prospects we could add to the deal, since we'd be getting a known pitching star in return. We may need to get creative and or bold- like we did to get Crochet, but to me, we simply have to pull the trigger.

Abreu (.807 and our HR leader) back to the 7 slot, so Yoshida (.720) can bat 5th. I do like seeing Romy at 1B v the RHP over Toro. Wong getting the start with Bello, again. OPS Against with catchers: .648 w Wong (389 PAs) .790 w Narvaez (125 PAs) However, ERA: 3.07 w Narvaez 3.31 w Wong

Brandon, the Cubs have a better record than the Sox, right now.

Sox with Men on Base (150+ PAs) .976 Bregman (+.054 over season .924) .895 Devers (-.010) .889 Duran (+.105) ..837 Story (+.115 Most of all players) .828 Abreu (+.021) .766 Rafaela (+.035) (Romy at 1.057 in 100 PAs & Anthony at .936 in 100) RISP (100+ PAs) .970 Devers (+.065 over season OPS w Sox) .932 Abreu (+.125 over .827 overall) .828 Story (+.106 over season .722) .822 Duran (+38) RBI High Leverage 28 Devers in 77 PAs 28 Abreu 90 27 Story 100 21 Rafaela 98 20 Bregman 64 18 Duran 95

If he wasn't out of options, I'd have him at Woo.

I think teams that have larger attendance numbers due to having a bigger park, often paid for by the community would disagree. The parks smaller than ours, MIA, CLE, ATH & TBR all are very low in attendance numbers, but a bigger park would not help them, unless a location change might be part of the upgrade. PIT, KCR & MIN are just above our capacity and would also not likely benefit from having parks 5-10K larger. The Dodgers have almost 8K more capacity than the #2 team, and it helps them make more revenue than anyone else- that and their fat TV contract. AZ, SEA, COL & NYY are next and all over 46K. All but the Yanks have lower attendance than the Sox, so you make a good point. The top avg Attn teams and their rankings on park capacity: 1 LAD 1 2 NYY 5 3 SDP 21 4 PHI 10 5 NYM 11 6 CHC 13 7 ATL 16 8 SFG 15 9 BOS 26 10 HOU 16 The thing is, teams #9-22 in capacity are all within about 3K seat from each other. (39K to 42K) They all can get 2-5K more per game and often do. Many still end up below the Sox, because they have many games under Fenway's capacity.

KC is more of an unknown, but yes, seemingly a much higher ceiling. The floors all look similar.

So far, for this year, yes, and this year looks like a wide open window of a chance. I get it. Someday, we may look at this trade differently, just as we are starting to change our views on the Story & Gio signings. BTW, Priester has a 4.13 ERA and 5.15 FIP in his last 4 starts, so his end might be changing towards the bad.

Nothing fake about this win- just a true Story!

Another take on the Priester trade... https://fanrecap.com/boston-red-sox/red-sox-trade-for-priester-suddenly-pays-off-in-big-way--Gs4h6

It's nice winning a 1 run game, especially a low scoring one! Love seeing Gio back in form. Breg & Story coming through as the vets. This team has grit.

10th best record in MLB and best run differential in AL. (3rd best in MLB- ahead of the Dodgers and Phillies!) Whodathunk... +161 MIL +114 CHC +94 BOS +91 NYY +84 DET +83 PHI +80 LAD +56 TEX (17th best record) +52 SDP +49 CIN (14th best) +47 TOR (2nd Best record) +43 TBR (21 best!!!! WOW!) +38 HOU (8th best record) +37 SEA (9th best)

Then, he woke up.

Woo threw Fitts, tonight. Literally. He did okay, but Sandlin and Kelly threw like crap and are trying hard to not be called up, this season. DHam coming to life in AAA. Aita got lit up w GRE.. Taylor with 3Hits and a dinger.

I love that part of Anthony's approach. Make them pitch to you.