moonslav59

Just about everybody thinks JH should spend more. The 4-5 year stretch before this recent uptick was such a gut punch, that the uptick doesn't even bring us back to even. It's encouraging to me to see the uptick, but we needed and still need more. We also need to make better choices when we do spend, but that is not easy to do, when the odds are against most big signings being productive. I'm not sure it's a "lie," because it's hard to know if these guys actually believe their words or not. I think 2021's near miss got these guys believing winning is possible without new spending.

The Sox are 25th in runs scored and even lower on wRC+, OPS and wOBA. They are 13 runs below 15th place and 25 runs from #10. The Sox have moved up to 13th in runs allowed (earned and unearned.) That's just 1 run from 10th and 14 runs from 5th. The team is 7th in ERA- but below average in FIP and xFIP. 13th in ERA. We are 17-22 with a Pyth of 18-21. We have the 11th best record in the AL and the 4th worst. 0.5 GB mid tier 1 GB the 6th best record in the AL. 2 GB the last WC slot (with 6 teams between us & SEA.) We are also 2GA of the worst record in the AL. 4 games separate the last WC team and the worst team.

D Reyes went 4.1 IP, last night: 0 Hits 0 BBs (1 HBP) 5 Ks.

In hindsight BLowe was the best solution. BLowe, Contreras, R Suarez & Gray. Adding Schwarber, Okamoto or Murakami to those 4 might have made us not suck.

We'd still suck with many combos you'd have been okay with.

No hope for that ever happening.

I'm not following. You call the guys you wanted "stiffs" or did I miss something. Okay, not instead of Ranger Suarez. Ranger, Willson plus one from Bregman/Bichette would still not have been okay with you. Sub Alonso or Schwarber for one, and still no?

Okay, so say we signed Bichette not Suarez and made all the same trades, minus Durbin's. We'd still suck. You'd still call them the flops. You'd still say Brez and Henry need to go. Right?

Big game for Tolle and the Sox. Yes, it's just May 9th, but the Rays are likely a team we will need to pass to get into the dance. A loss means -1 to them. A win means +1 vs them. It's a 2 game swing with the Rays, today.

Any word on Crochet's condition and ETA? He's the guy we need most.

He grabbed a biscuit on his way to the airport.

I do expect Devers to improve. I'm not sure he ever gets into the hearts of SF fans.

While Suarez is not a position player, he's no king crab either. They did fork over money for Contreras and future money on Anthony, Campbell & Rafaela. Some say more than market value. We are spending $40M more AAV than 2 years ago, for what that is worth, but I agree that we need to spend more. My big worry is not spending it wisely, if we do spend more next winter.

I could be wrong, but didn't you have Bichette on an earlier wish list? Bregman has not been an elite bat, except for two half seasons for many years. Schwarber's age worried me, but he was clearly the best winter bat for the short term. I wanted Alosno, too, and I'd have been okay with Alonso & Contreras, booting Masa and trading an OF'er for a 2B/3Bman (good bat or not.)

Career OPS+/ Last 3 years OPS+(23-25) /2025-2026 OPS+ 134/129/139 Alonso 131/122/123 Bregman 127/135/148 Schwarber (The oldest guy on this list) 124/120/127 Wilyer Abreu 120/114/116 Bichette (Youngest on list) 119/127/127 Contreras (The second oldest on list) Throw the age curve out on these results. The two players who have done better than their career are the oldest. The worst is the youngest! If you look at the two more recent numbers: Abreu & Contreras> Bregman & Bichette Improvement over career: +21 Schwarber +10 Contreras +5 Alonso +3 Abreu -4 Bichette -8 Bregman

But you won't bet the current Sox will get closer to their career OPS, too, right?

Yoshida up 4th, again. Story still up 5th, while the hit hand Rafaela bats 8th. I like seeing the attempt to boost the offense by using Gasper at Catcher, but I worry about the defense and how he works with Tolle. (Did he ever catch Tolle in the minors?) 11 hits in the last 21 innings is not a good sign, and it's a bit concerning to think Rafaela has been our third best hitter as we near the one quarter mark of the season. .873 Abreu .843 Willson .758 Rafaela .728 Yoshida .702 Wong .675 Anthony (IL) .631 Mayer / .628 Monasterio .599 Narvaez/ .583 Duran .514 Story/ .513 Durbin .449 IKF n/a Gasper That being said, our team OPS was .636 after 25 games and it's .721 over the last 14 games. Cherry-picking, of course, because it's .524 over the last 3 games.

It's hard to determine who rates to be an "elite bat" over the next 2-3 years. Using career OPS for a 32-35 year old seems illogical. Using most recent 2-3 year OPS might be better, but is likely still flawed. Using just last year has serious flaws, too. Using age regression charts as part of the calculation is probably helpful, and I think fangraphs projections does this to some extent, but to me it's mostly a stab in the dark, and our track record has pretty much sucked since the JD signing.

If we could trust JH to spend the Devers money plus more and trust Brez & Co. to spend the money wisely, it could make a difference. That's two big ifs, though.

It's not just the May 9th numbers, nor the end of 2025 numbers, it's the drama. SFG are not happy with Devers.

Agreed, and a few realized that older FAs rarely come close to expectations and wanted Bichette. Maybe one or two were high on Okamoto or Murakami- the youngest ones.

And if career numbers are what should drive our choices, then where's the Story love gone?

Yes, and to use career OPS for 32+ olds is not something I would think projects who they will be. Bregman has never put up numbers close to those two good years long ago. Maybe for a couple half years. Alonso did. Schwarber did. Bichette never really did. Tucker & Bellinger play the OF. Contreras is doing about as good or better as any of these guys. We needed a second big bat as almost everyone here agreed upon, and we whiffed. If we whiffed on Bregman, Bichette and a few others, I'm glad. Alonso/Schwarber and Contreras would have meant one DHs and an OF'er + Yoshida sit. A 2B/3Bman was the right fit, but very few of the available 2B/3Bman have done well (Murakami, Okamoto and trade guys like BLowe and Donovan.) It seems like those 4 were not widely suggested, so to me, we were asking for a miracle choice and are complaining Brez wasn't a fortune teller.

If all the Flops bats were hitting their career numbers, we wouldn't need the poor numbers Alonso, Bichette and Bregman are giving their teams, this season. I know this argument has flaws, but it also has some merit. It's a shot in the dark on big bat signings, and some of these guys from last winter's FA group were hardly "elite" bats.

More than 50% of the "elite bats" from last winter are underperforming or vastly underperforming. When you then consider our track record on selecting "the right guy" with our largest FA bat signings, I do pause to wonder why we put so much hope into that avenue as "the solution." I'm not calling out posters for being wrong, as I was calling for major signings, too, but the results of major bat signings out of the gate does not look good: In order by largest contract (age) OPS Tucker (29) .739 Bregman (32) .677 Bellinger (30>31) .899 Alonso (31) .786 Schwarber (33) .893 Bichette (28) .571 None over .900, two doing well (800-900), one doing okay (750-799) and three doing poorly, including one very poorly (under 750) 2-1-3 (more bad than good) ______________ $60-$120M Naylor (28>29) .681 Okamoto (29>30) .825 1-1 _____________ $25M>$59M Realmuto (35) .677 Polanco (32>33) .532 Murakami (26) .947 (The only one over 900) 1-2 _________________ Total: 1 Great (Murakami- the guy nobody here wanted) 3 Good (over 800) Schwarber, Bellinger, Okamoto 1 Okay (750-799) Alonso 4 Bad (650-749) Tucker, Bregman, Naylor 2 Horrific (<650) Bichette & Polanco ____________ 4 Good to Great 1 Okay 6 Bad or worse Most of us wanted to see an effort, and the pivot from Bregman to Suarez was a gut punch to hopes for a good offense or better, but he has saved the pitching staff- he and the kids.