moonslav59

Okay, but you called him a #4, right? Potential to be one is a different statement. It depends on how you decide to group SP'ers as #1-2-3-4-5 and certainly using ERA has merit. One way to look at rankings is to compare Suarez, Gray and Bello to every team's projected 2-3-4 SP'ers. You may find Gray looks better than half the #2's and almost all #3s. One day I will do this, and I'm guessing Suarez looks better than 15-20 team's #1 and maybe better than all but 1-2 team's #2. He's a top #2, if not a bottom #1. I'm thinking Gray will look as good as or close to half the #2's and almost all #3's. even if you use ERA. (Of course using only ERA neglects IP and other meaningful stats.) IMO, Bello could easily be MLB's best or top 2-3 4th starter. When we got Gray, I had hoped for a "better #2," but I felt he was pretty close to being one, as long as his age did not finally catch up to him. His fWAR was top 20, last year, and that was largely fueled by IP and FIP, as fangraphs favors FIP. His 1.4 bWAR is not all that great and probably is not top 60, but it is probably in the #2 to #3 range. Anyway we look at it, getting Suarez and pushing Gray and Bello back a notch greatly improved our rotation. It also left just the 5 slot open, instead of 4-5. Our depth was improved by Ranger, as well. Now, we need a big bat and a 2B/3Bman. I know we agree on that! 🤩

I can't see how Gray can be viewed as a #4, even if he pitches like one, every now and then. I won't bring up the last 2-3 year numbers, because Gray is old and others are not in age decline. Let's just look at 2025 numbers... The first one is IP. It takes creating the SP sample size of 150 pitchers (30 teams x 5 SP'ers) an IP minimum of 70 IP, That alone should tell you who the number 4 and 5 SP'ers are. They are the ones with less than 120 IP, unless they are good but missed starts for various reasons. #91 on the list had 126 IP. The #120th had 98. (150 had 72 IP) Gray was 19th in IP, despite his age. That's top 30, and if you rank started 1-2-3-4-5 based on top 30-60-90-120, then Gray loses no points for innings and durability for 2025. Lets go to ERA: Gray placed 90th at 4.28 (that looks like the best #3 SP'er in MLB.) Not a #4. His ERA- placed him 89th, so about the same: low #2 to top #3, not a #4. He placed 11th in SIERA. Far from a #4. Some like FIP a lot. Gray ranked an amazing 23rd, here at 3.39. That #1 territory, but I agree it does not make him a #1 or even a clear #2. Certainly, it's not close to #4. How about Ks and BB? He ranked 12th in K%-BB%. That's middle #1 territory and far from #4. The old WHIP: 55th at 1.23 which places hin a low #2. Can anyone show me one important stat where Gray was below average, other than ERA, which I assume most would say is mid tier #3 SP'er? Even ERA places him as a #3. Calling him a #4 is greatly exaggerating the skills of the rest of MLB SP'ers. To me, Gray is likely the best #3 in MLB. Maybe he's second or third best, if the Dodgers, Yankees or some other team have perfect SP'er health. Suarez looks like a number 1 in most categories and would rank and a top 2-3 #2 by almost every stat. Crochet is a top 3-5 SP'er in MLB, IMO. Bello might be a top 4-5 #4 in MLB, and while our #5 might not rank top 15, our 6-7-8-9 SP'ers rank more highly than almost every MLB team, so we should be okay with out #5. fangraphs projects our two top RP'ers as having the highest project fWAR of any other top 2. Whitlock blows away many teams' #1 RPer. Our offense needs serious help. Our defense took a big hit at 3B, but looks better at 1B and maybe 2B. Depending on who we add at 3B/2B, maybe the hit won't be so great. Our OF D is second to none.

And HOU might have a totally different view than we or other GMs do. They could also want him and his lower AAV and longer control years over Duran.

Indeed, but keeping pace with these insane jumps by 3-4 teams is not something I think should be fairly demanded by a fan base. Also, the numbers provided in the previous post included jumps bt the Phillies from 2021 vs the Dodgers from 2019. The 2019 to 2026 Sox jump looks paltry and is very far from "keeping pace," but the 2021 ro 2026 jump looks better, although still way short of those other teams listed: 2021: $185M> 2026: $268M (+$83M) PHI $209>$363 (+$154M) in the same timeframe. The Mets jumped $213M from 2021! Crazy money!

Yup, Brez could have totally botched things, but still ended up at the right point... or not.

Very well said. It should never be viewed in such simple terms as "Bregman was our number one target; we missed out on getting him; he must have botched it." Even if we did "misjudged the room," or were willing to pay more but did not get think we had to, the fact is we did not grossly overpay for Bregman, and we got a very good SP'er instead. Maybe he was an overpay or gross overpay, too, and time will show we chose wrongly. So be it. My opinion is, I'd rather have Suarez at $130M than Bregman at $170M, and for all we know, that may not have sealed the deal, if the no trade clause was a dealbreaker, anyway.

It was pretty lame.

They canceled school for today on Friday- over just the idea of a Saturday night ice strom. We got nothing but rain. It's sunny today, streets are dry and its about 32 degrees. LMAO!

The misjudged a lot about Masa. They may not have thought he was a plus defender, but they felt he was good enough to play LF, and he is not really "good enough." We've had worse defensive LF'ers, but most were hitting 30 bombs or getting on base over 35% of the time (or both.) The Masa signing was Bloom's worst decision, especially in light of how restricted his budget was. Masa and Story were a large percent of his total spending over 4 years. (The Betts trade was on JH & Co. IMO, so I don't hold that against Bloom, The return for Betts is up for criticism, but the only other reported offers were the one from the Padres w/o Price and the original offer by the LAD, which we tweaked Graterol out of the deal.) That $18M sure makes a big difference, especially from 2025 to now and next season. Thank God Story finally gave us something good. Let's hope that continues. I suppose Masa might still help us over the next two years, and if we trade an OF'er he will likely get a long look at DH. IMO, it's almost impossible for Masa to redeem himself and break e ven with his cost vs production, even when you factor in the norm for FA signings and their cost v production.

Exactly, and they did not view Masa as a DH. Now, to be fair, they were not sure all these OF'ers were going to do well. Even Duran, the longest well-performing OF'er of the 3, was a huge question mark the day we signed Masa.

I meant Early not Tolle. He may not have known who Valera was, but the system gets credit or blame based on results.

Speaking mistruths is not realism. You said JH would not spend and he signed Suarez. Yes, you said that surprised you, then you continue with the same comments, like "He's cheap," and "He doesn't spend," or "won't spend." That's not "realism" but yes it's excessive. He has spent- just not enough for you and most of us. Some of the big spending has not worked out (Yoshida, Story until '25 & others) and some has been horrible (Buehler, Kluber, Richards & Sandoval, so far.) No doubt we dropped down to rankings and the revenue vs spending low points of JH's era. We've all been upset over that and it deserves criticism, but since the Devers extension, there has been a clear and significant shift in spending and spending philosophy, such as extending young talent. That is "realism," too. There is no way the Suarez signing fit into your excessive realism mantra. To continue the mantra looks lame, to me, despite having a kernel of truth within it.

4 years: Draft: 2021: Drafted Mayer 1st & McDonogh 3rd 2022: Drafted Romero 1st, C Coffey 2nd & Meidroth 4th. 2023: Zaneteool 2nd & Anderson 3rd, K Campbell Comp pick IFA: 2026: D Brito (2nd highest bonus) 2025: D Soto (Highest bonus) Ramos (4th highest) 2024: Carrasquel (2nd) Fermin (5th) 2023: Cespedes (1st) Arias (2nd) Ruis (3rd)

While fangraph's projections are often wrong, here is how they score our pitchers by fWAR per IP: .029 Crochet .022 Gray .019 Suarez .012 Bello & Early .011 Oviedo& Sandoval .010 Tolle .007 Crawford _____________ .024 Chapman 0.16 Whitlock .007 Slaten

He's also paying over $20M for Crochet, Gray and Contreras

Is it still 23rd? If you divide this years $259.3 by the $574M revenue (2025) number, our % goes up to 45.1%, which places us 18th. While still not good, it is moving back into the right direction. 1% from middle of the pack. Yes, that is a major concern. I have voice displeasure over that, but I refrain from saying JH isn't spending any money on quality players and won't again. I don't know what he'll do. I thought last winter was a big step forward, then he dumped Devers. I don't disagree with your position that JH can and should spend more. I just disagree with the wording and your excessive pessimism.

Do you trade Sandlin, DHam and Soto for SS Ezequiel Tovar?

I really like Tolle, but would you give him up for a quality young 2Bman from MN- Luke Keaschall? I'd offer Tolle, Sandlin and Wong for Keaschall & one year of a good hitting catcher, Jeffers.

Great news for Yankee fans: Rodon is now able to button up his shirt! https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-rodon-gives-update-on-elbow-rehab-at-ny-baseball-writers-gala

Good points, Joe & notin. Not many teams have the luxury of not even counting on Tolle or Early to be on the opening day 26 man roster. When you couple that with the fact that we have Oviedo, Sandoval, Crawford and Harrison all having a legitimate shot at being the 5th starter at some point early in the 2026 season, our rotation looks as good as I have ever seen it look, in terms of overall quality of depth. Some of those SP'ers will likely help out in the pen, so I'm not too worried about losing Wilson, Bernardino and several others from our pen and pen depth. The everyday 13 does have one big hole: 2B or 3B, but with Mayer and Romy, we should be fine at one, if we add a quality player at "the other" slot. The Masa question continues to loom, and with Duran looking to play DH a lot, it seems pointless to carry a pretty much DH only guy on the MLB bench. If he can start the season in AAA, he could be useful depth, but I'm not sure that works. To me, the sure 10 are: Narvaez, Wong, Contreras, Romy, Mayer, Story, Duran, Anthony, Rafaela & Abreu. I'm pretty sure DHam makes the 26, even if we add a 2Bman not a 3Bman. That's 11, not counting Masa. We add a 3B/2Bman and it leaves 1 slot for Eaton or Sogard, with Campbell, Masa and maybe Romero as the AAA depth.

True. The roster transformation has been stunning by the numbers of players gone and added. While the numbers of top quality players added is not high, and some added like Bregman, are now gone, inaction is not Brez's issue, except maybe at deadlines. The losses of higher quality players have been the focus of most of the talk and criticism, and justifiably so. Devers, Sale, Bregman and to a lesser extent Giolito, Refsnyder, Priester, Wilson and inherited players like Turner, Jansen, Martin, Verdugo & Pivetta, who left for free agency total a hefty loss of talent. The shift towards pitching from top to bottom has shown positive results to date, but much is still in the TBD area. The everyday players are mostly holdovers from the Bloom era, and some were acquired under DD's reign. One noticeable aspect of this area of the roster is the many years of control to a large amount players, including some of our more younger players, including some unproven players. This looks like a good thing, but we'll find out in the upcoming years. (Note: many of our best pitchers are under team control for 2 or more years, as well.) With all the changes made, this feels like the players on the roster and in the farm now, are Brez guys or guys he likes. I get a sense that the make-over is near complete, and maybe just tweaks will be made in the coming years. Maybe we will finally see some continuity many of us have craved since the dismantling of that mega 2018 team.

It should worry all Sox fans that our everyday player part of the team is projected to be ranked 21st by fangraphs- a reputable site. It's concerning that we are 2 fWAR away from 15th. 3 fWAR from 12th and 5 fWAR from 10th. That's a lot of ground to make up to get to top 3rd tier (and just barely.) Paredes is not adding 5 fWAR. We may not need to be top 10 or 12, but it is very concerning we are this far away from it. We can argue some fWAR projections seem obviously low, but they are for almost every player. It should also be noted that we are about 6 fWAR ahead of the #10 team in pitching, the NYY. Overall, we are 7th in fWAR projections. 0.8 from #6 and 1.2 from #5. We are 2,3 from #4. A Paredes addition might jump us to #4 or 5. In 2025, we placed... #10 in everyday player fWAR (25.2) #7 in pitching fWAR (18.4) If we can get to 12th in offense/defense and 1st in pitching, that looks like a sizable improvement.

You mean that JH won't spend more and the $50M more than 2024 is a mirage?

Yes, I understood this, and agree.

I have said I would not have been upset had we matched or exceeded the Cubs offer and landed Breggie. We would clearly be a much better team with Breggie at 3B and Mayer/Romy at 2B. I wish he was on our roster. I also am happy Suarez is on our current roster, and I'm pretty sure we could not have had both, so to me that is the bottom line. Yes, it matters is Brez is a buffoon for not. Maybe he is. Maybe he's bungled his way into a lucky improvement of the 26 and 40 man roster. Time will tell on that, I suppose.