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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    I think we'd be okay with the plan I laid out minus Polanco. Mayer and Romy at 3B Masa and Ref at DH.
  2. moonslav59
    So that's about $60M in winter additions. Alonso + Bregman or Bichette. Schwarber + Suarez or Polanco.
  3. moonslav59
    I really do not think it is unrealistic to suggest JH spend up to the second tax line without going over, especially in light of this stretch of skimping and the upcoming wide open window of opportunity that is upon us, now. If he is ever going to spend, it should be now. The second tax line is about $55-65M away, and IMO, we really have three major needs. In theory, that's about $20M per player x 3, but with the excess OF'er situation and some duplicated values here and there, I think we can manage one big trade without hurting the future too much or creating a new hole. It seems plausible we can trade for a Joe Ryan, Lodolo or maybe even go big and get KMarte and then we have $60M for two players. (Maybe spend $10M on Matz & Ref combined and $50M on 2.) This talking Alonso + Bregman territory. Schwarber + Bichette, maybe. Alonso + Suarez or Polanco, easily. I know it sounds outlandish, because we have become accustomed to letdowns and almosts, every winter, but this is doable. It's no joke. It can be done. Now, I know enough about getting my hopes up to expect this doesn't come close to what will happen, but I'm holding JH to the fire. If we fall short, I'm jumping on the JH Sucks Bandwagon... if there is room for one last poster aboard that wagon.
  4. moonslav59
    There are some short deal options out there, or trades. To me, we need 3 high quality players: SP2, 1B and 3B/2B. I'm not sure we can get high quality at all 3 slots, unless we do more trading than free agents. Is Merrill Kelly high enough quality to be our #2 SP'er? He might sign for 2-3 years. He just turned 37. Are 33 year olds Hoskins or Josh Bell big enough upgrades at 1B? I'm not sure any other decent ones can be signed for 1-3 years. Polanco is 32 and may look to put up big numbers and opt out of a deal, if we give him a high AAV deal. I keep mentioning 34 year old E Suarez for this very reason: he may take a 2-3 year deal. I doubt we win with Kelly, Hoskins and ESuarez or Polanco, but it's not a horrible winter. How about this for no large and longs: Trade Duran plus for KMarte. His contract is kinda long but not too large for his profile. Add Matz and Ref. Sign Suarez for 1B, Polanco to DH and Kelly to pitch!
  5. moonslav59
    It's not even close. Ward was traded one on one, and Duran can't even be a "centerpiece?"
  6. moonslav59
    I agree that Duran had more value after last year. He still has a lot. I know you don't value WAR, but the differences are stark: 2024>2025 Ward: BWAR 2.3>2.7 Duran: BWAR 8.7>4.7 (sure, a drop off but still 2 above Ward.) fWAR Ward: 2.8>2.9 Duran: 6.8>3.9 (despite a major drop off, still 1 up on Ward.)
  7. moonslav59
    I meant in my mind Duran is the one to be traded, and not just because of the 3 things I mentioned, or the trends and defense or years of control or budget costs or ... He has higher trade value, because he has had better numbers. We'll get more for him. That's a big reason he's #1 on my list. I get the fact that we need offense and trading one of of our top 3 offense guys after losing Devers and Bregman seems counterintuitive, but for the reasons I mentioned and some umentioned, I'd look to trade him not the others. If someone offers similar returns for Abreu or Rafaela, I'm all ears. I'm even okay trading two for the right returns, and no on trading either for prospects, unless they are flipped for Duran, KMarte or the like. I realize my suggestion could backfire. As for Rafaela's decline? .702 first 78 games .714 last 78 games Duran: .714 first 78 games .842 last 79 games That was a nice finish, unless you look at just Sept: .692 Duran .669 Ceddanne They both kinda tailed off.
  8. moonslav59
    Sounds right. I think both start in AAA as we will trade for a #2 and maybe sign Matz.
  9. moonslav59
    Those three years saw an attempt to deepen the 40 man and farm. Hardly any top prospects were traded, and some of the ones that were traded were for other prospects or recent grads. The trades made yesterday were just shuffling the deck. No top players were traded. No top prospects were added to the system.
  10. moonslav59
    Agreed. It is rare to select a guy to the 40 for Rule 5 purposes then DFA them. Anybody know if the Sox have ever done that?
  11. moonslav59
    Yes, he is a very good player with more HR power. His SLG% finally passed Duran's for a season, too. Duran did worse than the year before despite being younger. There are certainly advantages and pluses for both guys, but Duran has "centerpiece" value. The Ward trade was one for one!
  12. moonslav59
    Duran can be a very significant "centerpiece," but more will be needed to get a real gem back. Look what Taylor Ward brought back, yesterday. Ward turns 34 before the season begins. Last 3 years: .241 BA (.323 OBP) .443 SLG (.767 OPS) 14 SBs Negative dWAR every season in MLB Duran: .276 BA (.339 OBP) .471 SLG (.810 OPS) 82 SBs Plus dWAR over 3 years but negative 3 yrs ago.
  13. moonslav59
    None. That's why this is all dreaming. No way I'd give up what some are suggesting for one year. Our window looks 3-4 years wide, to me... maybe longer.
  14. moonslav59
    We all have moments of grandeur.
  15. moonslav59
    100%. I see one big bopper as slightly more important than a #2SP, but we need both 100%. Here's my thinking: We lost Devers and Bregman. We can't count Anthony as a replacement because he had over 300 PAs in '25. Maybe 1/2? Who else do we have? Mayer? Garcia? Returning Casas or Masa? We lost Gio (ouch) and Buehler (yuck) and have these guys to take up some slack: Crawford, Sandoval, Harrison plus more from Dobbins, Early, Tolle and maybe more. While none of those guys look like #2s, they look better than our in house big bopper replacement. I'd like to see... Ryan or Lodolo type as minimum Alonso, K Marte or Schwarber Bregman, Bichette or Polanco as a sideways move from 2025.
  16. moonslav59
    I'd prefer Tolle not be practicing new pitches at the big level.
  17. moonslav59
    Bernie's BB% rose: 8.3>9.7>11.6 w BOS
  18. moonslav59
    No extension: no trade.
  19. moonslav59
    We need both and can afford both- financially and/or with trade capital. It's the 3rd or 4th adds that are more questionable or less likely. We can trade for Ryan and sign Alonso. We'd be significantly under the first tax line. Our rotation would be better. replacing Duran with Alonso would be a plus, but it comes down to the 3rd add: losing Bregman without a replacement negates the Alonso/Duran gain. I'm not projecting Alonso, Bregman and Ryan, but we can reasonably do that and not be way over the tax line or have to empty the farm to do it. I have low expectations but high hopes. Maybe they are dreams not hopes.
  20. moonslav59
    While saying Duran has "3 strikes" I did not intend to minimize the fact that he is a way better hitter than Rafaela. That is a clear strike one on Ceddanne. Yes, batting is more important, so count it as strike 2 or even 3. That makes em even. I also failed to mention Rafaela's utility value. Do trends matter in the scheme of age projections? fWAR 2024>2025 6.8>4.2 Duran (-2.6) 1.0> 3.8 Rafaela (+2.8) n/a> 3.0 Anthony 3.1>2.4 Abreu (-0.7 IN SLIGHTLY less playing time) bWAR 8.7>4.7 Duran (-4.0 and equal to Ceddanne in '25) 2.8>4.7 Rafaela (+1.9) 3.4>3.2 Abreu (-0.2) n/a>3.1 Anthony
  21. moonslav59
    Because something better came along that was not really planned on? More likely, they'd be traded.
  22. moonslav59
    We also have to consider that using Tolle in the pen in 2026 does not mean he can never be a starter again. True, you don't want to jerk a kid around and back and forth, but we are going for a ring in 2026. You gotta play your best players where they are needed.
  23. moonslav59
    I suggested that, a while ago. They may start with Fitts in the pen and Tolle in the AAA rotation, but if a need arises, he may be at the top of the list on a promotion to the Sox pen in 2026. Crawford may also be considered for a pen conversion.
  24. moonslav59
    I think years of control and age are two factors that put Duran in the one slot. (Defense is another reason.) Three strikes: he's outta here!
  25. moonslav59
    While I do think Ceddane could be a plus defender at 2B, if it becomes his FT position, we know he is GG in CF. He is spectacular out there. If he could reduce the errors, he'll be legendary. He will not be that at 2B. With the high need some teams have for OF'ers, as evidenced by the Taylor Ward trade, it seems easier to just trade one OF'er rather than juggle things to accommodate Duran or Abreu. Why worsen the D to keep Duran in LF, or worse put him in CF? I've actually suggested trading Rafaela a few times, but I order it this way (not likelihood but moonslavhood) 1. Trade Duran (maybe and Campbell/Garcia) 2. Trade Abreu (maybe and Campbell not Garcia) 3. Trade Duran & Abreu 4. Trade Rafaela (maybe with Campbell not Garcia)
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