moonslav59

I have mentioned this several times. How am I not taking this into account? I mentioned arb estimates vs production, and what happens during the last arb years and the years that go beyond are very important to judging the success of locking these guys up. All are a long way from that time. So far, some look good, but I'm not claiming wins. It sounds like some are claiming defeat before the majority of the deal has even occurred. If they do great, we'll make out. If not, we may lose out. It's a gamble- not much different than a gamble on Buehler+Sandoval+Kluber+Richards, which is about what we are paying Bello. Yes, he was already under control at decent prices. The contract has to beat that and or make up for it in the final "post control" years. I could say "you have to take this into account."

Where did I even hint at thinking this? I wasn't for extending Mayer or even Duran. I wasn't for extending Crawford or Slaten. I wasn't even thinking about extending Rafaela, Bello and KC, until they did it. I never suggested we do it. I've reacted to what was done and think 3 of the 4 deals (4 of 5, if you count Whitlock) look pretty good, so far, but much can still happen- for good or for bad.

Lets not extend Narvaez, until he's worth way more, too.

Maybe the $1M price tag is reason enough. I like this move and the fact that he is a lefty. I'm not sure the lefty thing was as urgent as it appeared, since our top RH'd RP'ers have done pretty well vs LHBs. OPS Against Career Whitlock: .648 v L/ .668 v R Slaten: .542 v L/ .606 v R Weissert: .711 v L/ .665 v R Crawford: .723/ .709 Kelly: .734/ .699 (not really horrible, and he's the worst on the list.) LHP Sandoval crushes LHBs: .598/.734 Chapman, too: .462/.553 Coulombe: .596/.694 Moran: .602/.622

With the Romy to the 60 Day IL news, losing Refsnyder looks more hurtful, despite the OF/DH logjam.

At his age, his last season carries more weight than other recent seasons, but from 2023-2024: 3.27 xFIP (19th out of 166 RP'ers with 80+ IP.) 2.83 FIP (14th) 2.99 xERA (21st) 63 ERA- (16th) 23% k%-BB% (13th) 2023-2025 59 ERA- (8th out of 156 pitchers with 120 IP as a RP) 3.57 xFIP (44th) 3.28 xERA (40th) For $1M, this looks pretty damn good.

They didn't sign him to $130M/5. The amount of the signing is the key. The amount is weighed against projected value during the arb years and then the year or two afterwards and the projected paydays for each year. If he does better than expected, you will likely save money and get a couple years of control at lower than market price. His last 3 years, he'll get paid $16M (would have been final arb year) $19M and then the $21M option season at age 30. This is "opening day pitcher" money? In those final years, his tax line hit will be about $9M a year. We're paying Gray $21M to be a 3rd starter.

I have not argued that jumping the gun is a great or even good idea. I have said it's a gamble. Some work and some do not. It's early on KC, anyway. I'm not for locking up anyone and everyone. We locked up the minor league player of the year. We did it very early, but it's not unheard of in MLB, and not just by low budget teams, either. It could end up being a 100% waste of $60M, but there is still a chance it turns out okay or even well. Yes, it was not "necessary," but it's not without some merit.

14 Players added to the 40 since the end of the 2025 season: Suarez, Gray, Oviedo, Bennett Coulombe, Watson, Samaniego Contreras, Durbin, IKF, Monasterio, Seigler, Gasper, Cheng Some non 40 players added to the system: Braiden Ward, Matt Thaiss, Ronny Hernandez, Luke Heyman, Gage Ziehl, Isaiah Jackson, Adonys Guzman, Nate Baez, Tayron Guerrero, TJ Sikkema, Alec Gamboa, Devin Sweet, Vinny Capra

Romy goes on 60 Day IL to make room for Coulombe.

Here are some winter arb numbers for SP'ers: $32M Skubal $6.2M Bubic $3.6M Bradish Avoided arbs: $12.8 Singer $11.0M Luzardo $10.9M Gilbert $8.1M Peterson $6.8M Steele $6.6M Kirby $6.2M Trevor Rogers & Casey Mize $6.1M Joe Ryan $5.8M Kremer $5.7M Hunter Brown $5.6M M Gore $5.2M B Ober $4.7M Lodolo $4.5M Schmidt & Cabrera $4.2M Houck $4.0M Pallante How much would Bello have gotten?

Here are the pre-arb extensions handed out by Brez: 2024: $55M/6 Bello (1 year beyond arb with another team option year) $50M/8 Rafaela (2 years beyond controlled arb seasons) 2025: $130M/8 Anthony (2 years beyond arbs plus an option year) $60M/8 Campbell (2 years beyond arbs plus two more option years) Others: $170M/6 Crochet (2026-2031) $13,3M/1 Chapman (+ option for 2027) To me, the only one that looks questionable or doubtful is the KC one, but we've seen 2 months of MLB play from him, to date. Rafaela: 4.8 fWAR in the first 2 seasons. (7.5 bWAR) Bello: 3.9 fWAR in first 2 seasons. (3.9 bWAR) Anthony: 2.7 fWAR in first 71 games in MLB. (3.1 bWAR) KC: -0.2 fWAR in first 67 games in MLB. (-1.0 bWAR)

How about the Luzardo example? First 160 or so IP: 5.36 ERA/4.82 FIP A very promising 2022-2023 stretch (3.48/3.40) ages 24-25 (280 IP) Then, some injury issues: 5.00/4.26 in 66 IP in '24 (1st of 3 arb years) 3.92/2.92 in 184 IP, last year ($6.25M arb year 2) He gets $11M for 3rd arb year and the Phillies just extended him to $135M/5 starting in 2027. Was it worth waiting? Sometimes, it works out to extend a guy before he has a really good year.

It's 2 years for Bello and way more for Anthony & Rafaela. You think Alcantara is risk free? I'd rather have Bello.

Probably. Like I said: it's a gamble that wins some and loses some. With our record on FA "gambles" being so great, I'm not getting why this is such a big issue. How about our fantastic record with locking up our stars after they prove they are good enough to extend? Great one, right? How about our record with the biggest FA signings since DD left? (Story & Masa) I, for one, applaud the effort to change things up and try to actually keep our young players for longer than we have been. Yes, I fully expect we will swing and miss on some, but we've been swinging and missing on other strategies that have been even more costly than $60M spent on KC, and speaking of KC, he's not quite dead yet.

Quentin Priester has a nerve issue is his shoulder. The injury is “in that thoracic outlet syndrome family.” -MLBTR

Huh? You're probably glad we waited on suspects like Betts & Bogey, too.

soxprospects.com now has Sandoval and Crawford starting the season on the IL, along with Romy & Casas. They've been all over the map on Sandoval & Crawford. Assuming they are right, and with the addition of Coulombe, is this the opening day 26? Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Bello, Oviedo Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Coulombe, Moran, Watson, Kelly Narvaez & Wong (Thaiss?) Contreras, Mayer, Durbin, Story, IKF & Monasterio Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu, Duran, Yoshida

Huh?

You do realize that on the back end the numbers might be $195 AAV and $263 in payroll.

If it's good for the Rays, why not the Sox? How about the Braves? They do this a lot. It depends on how well or poorly these kids do. KC has 2 months under his belt. Can we wait a while to judge his deal?

Good post, and I'll respond to this part, since this gets to the heart of the matter. These early extensions are made to hedge against the possibility that the young arb or prearb player will do so well that they will "price themselves" to a point where we might lose them or have to pay FA market price and use too much budget space doing so. I'm not sure the Sox expected Bello to be a Cy Young candidate at age 24 and 25. They likely expected decent seasons and improvement. I'd say two seasons at $15M value according to fangraphs is as good or better than expected. Yes, a 4.19 FIP for two years in a row is not "killing it," it's still is pretty good. His ERA+ of 123, last season is very nice. How much does a guy that does this get on the FA market? 2024-2025: 28th ERA- at 93 (just below Gausman) 30th in IP 39th FIP (4.19) 36th xFIP 41st fWAR (3.9) Signing these deals is a bet that the player will do well and command too much bargaining power, either in his last arb years or once their control years are up. I'd say Bello is slightly ahead of pace on being worth the extension, and Rafaela's 2025 season puts him way above the curve, but with enough doubts to still worry or wonder.

You called it, notin. Nice deal. I'd say Cheng goes, and Crawford begins the season on the IL.

Early looking pretty good, today. With Crawford yet to pitch a ST'ing game and Sandoval likely to begin the season in the pen, is Early our #6 SP'er, now? (Tolle #7 or Sandoval?)

Agreed. I have him closer to 16 than 6. I hope he proves me wrong!