moonslav59

I doubt the CWS add him for opening day, but the kid is probably already better than someone on their 26. They suck. 2027 is probably when they start strongly considering adding him, and even then, they may wait until he gains another year of control, assuming the rules are the same.

First, you have to know what he'd have gotten and would have gotten through ARBs, and BTV does not have that ability. Then, you need to project what he'd get as a FA for the 2 years added to his control years. Where do I "feed" that into BTV? Walk me through the "simple math." There are easily 15-20 teams that would give us real value in a trade for Bello and ask for no money. Would they give more if he had just 3 arb years left? Yes, some of the cheap teams would, although a handful might not want him for his last 1-2 arb year costs, too. What would Bello have gotten in arb for 2026 after two $15M fangraph value seasons in a row? (Not $15M, as arbs are not high for the early arb seasons, but the numbers have been on the rise, lately.) How about next year and 2028? How is the math "simple" when we have no idea how well he'll do. I think your low opinion of Bello is influencing your projections.

We've changed coaches and GMs. Cora got a year off, too.

Finally!

$6.2> $8.7>$16.2>$19.2 then a $21M option with just a $1M buyout at age 30? Seriously? While that amount would price several teams out of even asking about a trade, it's a very reasonable pay schedule. Fangraphs gave him a value over $15M a year in 2024 and 2025, and he's just now entering his prime years, although "prime" varies quite a bit for pitchers. BTV projects $78M value over the next 4 years, and we all know teams pay more than projected value for pitchers under 30. All control years are before 30. He's owed about $52M/4, counting the buyout. I get the fact that his arb costs may not have been all that high, so maybe there is a slight overpay, but unless he declines in value (a possibility) he would likely get more than $19M a year at age 29 and $21M for the age 30 year. Rafaela's deal looks even better. He's making just $2M, this year (age 23)! Then $3.5M>$5.5M>$7.5M>$10.5M>$13M with a club option of $16M in 2032 ($4M buyout.) He will be just 29 for this option year. Fangraphs placed his value at $8M in '24 and $30M in '25. BTV projects production at $94M/7, while he's owed $58M more. Why would teams prefer to spend this money on FAs?

These guys will be great AAV bargains towards the ends of their deals when they'll be making $25-40M a year as free agents, or we'd have to replace them at those costs. Bello & Rafaela have played well enough, so far, to project salaries higher than what we will be paying them. Anthony is too early to tell. KC, too, but he looks more skeptical. However, KC's AAV cost is $7.5M. That's less than we have paid Sandoval, Kluber, Richards, Kiki and others. It's 1/3 the cost of Buehler. This is so far from "stupid."

What do you think? LOL. I know my money is in good hands. I do know some fees are taken, but I don't watch very penny. As long as the balance is ridsing significantly, I'm fine.

I'm not defending it, and it does look "dumb," so far, but it's a gamble that will likely not work everytime. I'm still optimistic on KC, but certainly my doubts are high, too.

I track my accounts every 3 months, but I don't really look real closely at fees, I'm paying, since the investment balance keeps doing pretty well vs the stock market, in general.

The Brez FA pitcher signings: $130M/5 Suarez $38.5M/2 Giolito $21.1M/1 Buehler $18.3M/2 Sandoval $10.8M/1 Chapman w $13.3M/1 extension w option $10M/2 Hendriks Extensions: $170M/6 Crochet $55M/6 Bello + option This is over $450M total.

I was not high on Snell, but Monty seemed reasonable, to me.

I think I'd add Thaiss to the 40 man and trade/DFA Cheng. I might add Ward and trade/DFA Gasper, but there is no hurry on this one. Maybe we add someone to the 60 Day IL and sign Coulombe or cut bait with Moran or Watson. (Kelly still has options, so maybe we don't need to.)

Braden Montgomery is trying to win a slot on the CWS roster with a nice spring, while Kyle Teel just hit the IL (4-6 weeks w hammy.)

I thought this was a 5 GG post.

BTV has Campbell at negative $1.2M, so he can easily get this to plus, with some sign of life. Anthony is +$62M. Yes, BTV shows if the contracts are underwater or not, but of course there is context needed, as arb players that are good will always be a plus. It's more about what we get after the control would have run out, and how much more we paid than the arbs would have been (an estimate.)

What does Rafaela have to do? At age 24, he put up a 3.4 fWAR. He'd get a hefty contract as a FA, unless he falls off a cliff before his control years would have ended. As of now, it looks like we'll be saving money. If people can jump against the KC early signing, then this one should look good. Bello has put up a 3.9 fWAR since 2024, when his extension kicked in. He got paid $3.5M. Of course the post control years and contracts are what makes the difference, but Bello is owed: $6M this year $8.5M in '27 (last arb year?) $16M in '28 $19M in '29 there is a team option for $21M in 2030 with a $1M buyout. You don't think Bello would get a $35M/2 deal after 2027? Have you seen what lesser pitchers are getting? He'll turn 30 for his option season (year 3.)

He's 36, but has a had a few years in a row of nice pitching. Hard to know why he hasn't signed yet. We might sign him.

Yes, I know some felt that way- a lot more claimed they did a year later. I did not, so I don't have to explain anything.

I disagree. BTV does, too: Rafaela worth 94, paid 58 & net +$36 Bello worth 78, paid 51 & net +$27 fangraphs says Rafaela already produced a $40M value. Bello: $54M. Yes, these were pre-arb values, but their paydays would be determined by their production levels during arbs years.

Well, some felt the Rafaela & Bello signings were "premature" or dumb, too.

I think this guy has a better chance at sticking around. We did trade Bernardino for him, so I have to think they thought highly of him, before seeing these results.

We might put Casas or Sandoval on the 60. Can we start the 60 day clock on March 1st?

When did I say Sale was not an injury risk? I liked the trade.

Cause chicks dig the zoom-ins on his muscles.

Luckily, the Sox have a policy of only one at a time.