Jump to content
Talk Sox
  • Create Account

moonslav59

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    103,812

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    128

 Content Type 

Profiles

Boston Red Sox Videos

2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking

Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker

News

2026 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    5 top starters by GS'd # BOS TBR CWS HOU OAK 1 127 106 103 121 123 2 115 149 104 142 111 3 108 92 100 148 127 4- 95 98 215 129 92 5- 84 82 185 121 140 TBR Glasnow is on 60 day IL
  2. moonslav59
    Taking a look at our batting slot OPS, I notice our slots filled by batters named Bogey, Devers and JD look a lot better than they did earlier in the year. Our 3-4-5 slots are unmatched in MLB: .921 3 slot .912 4 slot .875 5 slot Here's the other slots: .783 2 slot .763 8 slot .699 9 slot .668 6 slot .603 9 slot .600 7 slot Our 7-9 slots are at .661. Comps to other AL Leaders Batting Order Slots # BOS TBR CWS HOU OAK 1 .699 .768 .778 .811 .807 2 .783 .694 .661 .752 .769 3 .921 .599 .811 .779 .809 4 .912 .894 .766 .859 .721 5 .875 .677 .678 .922 .689 6 .668 .671 .857 .868 .772 7 .600 .785 .877 .789 .639 8 .763 .694 .688 .637 .630 9 .603 .603 .703 .602 .579 Houston has 2 players under .650 and none between .650 and .695. Boston has 2 and 1. The CWS 0 and 3. OAK 3 and 1. TBR 2 and 4.
  3. moonslav59
    It couldn't be they though all those pitchers were the best players available. This was a strategy. Or as GW would say, "a stradgedy."
  4. moonslav59
    He was great almost all the time. Saying clutch is not sustainable is not counter to calling him great and fearing him as a pitcher. Man, that granny vs Detroit was the balls, though, right?
  5. moonslav59
    I can't see how hitting the same as you normally do is clutch, but a 1.000 OPS hitter would get way more clutch hits than a .600 hitter, if they all followed their norms- which is something not to be expected. The argument that these hitters are facing better pitching in the playoffs does not hold much water, to me. I'm not saying what Papi did was totally random. Random shuffling would create samples like his, but what I'm saying is that just because a hitter did what Papi did in a scattered and short sample size, does not make it a repeatable skill.
  6. moonslav59
    Earp... that's a good one.
  7. moonslav59
    RISP in a 12-0 game is not clutch. "Late & Close" and High Leverage are better defining "clutch" stats. I can't find Papi's Late & Close playoff numbers, but I expect they were significantly better than .930, but that still does not prove clutch is a sustainable skill. Even setting up a random numbers generator for a .930 hitter would generate some 395 PA samples sizes that are great, okay and bad.
  8. moonslav59
    If you roll the dice, not every sample size will come out to be exactly the mean. BTW, here are Papi's numbers: .931 Career OPS .870 Late & Close .943 High Leverage Now, of course he had way more clutch hits in the playoffs than his career OPS would suggest he have, but the sample size is small and scattered. Playoffs: .947 in 369 PAs It looked like Papi was "regressing back to the norm" starting in 2008. He his .243 in 115 playoff PAs after 2007. (He did have 6 HRs and 19RBI). It's hard to prove he had a skill that was repeatable, just because he did it so many times.
  9. moonslav59
    I think the $1.75M was the ML contract assuming they added him by the opt out date he agreed to extend due to injury. That contract may be pro-rated (1 month minor league- 5 months ML rate). It does look like it is left off the totals, but remember many of these 26th man on the roster players are close to being interchangeable. Adding Santana at $1.75M to replace someone making $580 to $800K is not adding $1.75M to the tax budget. It may only add $1M, not counting the pro-ration.
  10. moonslav59
    He will likely make less AVV but add years.
  11. moonslav59
    My bad. I wrote "2 of 3" but was thinking his first. Yes, he should make $7-11M- year 2.
  12. moonslav59
    If we have $35 to $55M to spend, this winter, I don't see how we can't replace ERod & Ottavino in kind. If we sign these 4 key free agents SP SP/RP Solid Set-up man Utility man/1B we should not have to skimp with any signing. We could spend $25M on a SP, $11M on another, $8M on a RP'er and $6M on utility and be $12M over the tax line and $8M under the second penalty line. More likely, we spend $20M SP, $10M on P, $5M RP and $5M on utility bringing us to $2M over the line. We'd be able to spend more at the deadline. The other factor working against Bloom's normal Rays strategy of signing quantity (inexpensive) over quality (expensive), is the roster squeeze the Rule 5 players will force on the 40man roster construction choices. I think we sign only 3-5 FAs to ML deals. This seriously hints at quality vs quantity.
  13. moonslav59
    Exactly. We have new people at the helm and in the system. Let's give them some slack. I hope we keep doing well with non-pitchers.
  14. moonslav59
    I can't argue with this.
  15. moonslav59
    More likely, we find someone making $6-9M and pay the pro-rated $2-3M, leaving enough room for a cheap 1B and maybe even a RP'er.
  16. moonslav59
    Agreed, but maybe KC picks up $2M and gives us Carlos Santana, too.
  17. moonslav59
    I'm no expert on arbs, but first year arbs are notoriously very lowball. Maybe $7-8M?
  18. moonslav59
    Pro-rated to 1/3 a season is $4.3M (minus the guy's salary he replaces on the 26 man roster). We have $4.5M space.
  19. moonslav59
    Agreed. I'd say these are our biggest needs: #1. SP 1 or 2 (Sale?) #2. SP 3 or 4 (FA) #3. Solid Set Up RP'er (Houck/Bazardo/Valdez?) #4. LH'd hitting Utility who can play 1B well or a 1B/OF type- maybe just a 1Bman- (FA)
  20. moonslav59
    I thought he'd play some 2B, too, but his metrics showed he was a very good defensive CF'er. He seems to have stepped up his D in CF the more he plays there. I never thoguth we'd bring JBJ back with those demands, so I guess I saw Arroyo at 2B as more likely to stick than Cordero playing FT OF.
  21. moonslav59
    Stunning!
  22. moonslav59
    Where did all the "bring back JBJ" fans go?
  23. moonslav59
    Robo UMPs is step one.
  24. moonslav59
    Nobody believed me when I said this last winter. It was all about Kike playing 2B. I wasn't 100% right, as I saw a Cordero-Renfroe platoon (in LF, no less!) with Kike in CF and Verdugo in RF.
  25. moonslav59
    Maybe he meant with the Sox, so it's 2 for Theo and letting the farm value slip from its peak between 2003 to 2006.
×
×
  • Create New...