moonslav59

There are a lot of pitchers out there that would not put us over the tax line. Only 1/3 of their salary counts on the tax line. To get a real good one, we may need to give up more than Bloom is willing to give. Guys like Danny Duffy or Jon Gray might be SP'ers that could help, but with the risk they may not.

Although looking at the 2022 budget does not belong on this thread, the ASB always seems to lead to talk of issues like this, since there is not much else to talk about. Lux Tax budget for 2022: $Millions 25.6 Sale 22.0 JD (may opt out) 20.0 Bogey 17.0 Eovaldi 16.0 Price (last year payment to LAD) 8.50 Richards (team option) May not keep 9.38 Barnes 7.00 E Hernandez 6.75 Vazquez (team option) 5.50 Perez (team option) 3.25 Andriese (team option) Probably won't keep 1.50 Sawamura ARBS ~5.5 Devers (2 of 3) ~4.0 Renfroe (3 of 4) ~3.0 Verdugo (1 of 3) ~2.5 Pivetta (1 of 3) ~2.1 Arroyo (1 of 3) ~1.7 Plawecki (4 of 4) May let go ~1.5 Taylor (1 of 4) ~1.2 Brasier (2 of 3) ~1.0 Cordero (2 of 3) ~2.3 Other 40 man roster players ~16.0 Player Benefits $172M Estimate (with JD, Perez, Vaz, but no Richards, Andriese and Plawecki) That leaves about $38M to reach the tax line and $58M to stay under the second tax line. No ERod, Ottavino, Richards, Marwin, Andriese, Santana, Plawecki, Workman, Rios and Brice. 2022 Projected 26 Man Roster (40 man Roster in Red) Sale Eovaldi __FA____ Pivetta Whitlock Perez Seabold Mata Bello Winckoski Groome Ward Barnes __FA____ Sawamura Taylor __FA_______ D Hernandez Houck Valdez Bazardo Ort Vazquez Wong Dalbec __FA_____ (utility) Arroyo Downs Bogaerts Devers H Potts Verdugo Cordero E Hernandez Duran Rosario Jimenez Renfroe JD Martinez Bubble 40 man (must replace someone above) F German Rule 5 AScherff Rule 5 AJ Politi Rule 5 K Cottam Rule 5 K Crawford Rule 5 T Reed Rule 5 D Feltman Rule 5 T Dearden Rule 5 J Schreiber Rule 5 M Wilson J Arauz M Chavis

Seems like such a simple strategy: get ahead in the counts. I know some pitchers are trying to throw a strike pitch one, but they miss, but many try to nibble a corner right away.

One thing he is known for that Dalbec is not is tremendous defensive skills and history. That makes him more like JBJ than Dalbec, although JBJ was not really a 30%+ K guy. (I think he was 25%.)

Especially when we go with the extra pitcher and short bench. His value as a super sub actually allows Cora to use the other, non-catching bench players more freely, knowing he has an emergency guy like Marwin at the end of the bench. I will say, I think he's been used more than I think he should have been or needed to be. There was a time when he was like 6th or 7th in PAs- ahead of Renfroe, Dalbec & Arroyo. The Kike & Arroyo simultaneous injuries caused some of that, but he was playing a lot before they got hurt. His best role might be never really playing until the very end of games, when another move forces his role to be needed.

To me, "clutch" means doing better in the clutch than not in the clutch. Performing better than the norm. This is NOT sustainable. That does not mean we can't continue getting lucky for the remainder of the season, but clutch is not a skillset in baseball.

I hope we make 2-3 deals that boost our chances without giving up any very promising players or prospects. Something like what we did in 2018 would be what I expect. Whether the deals work out as well as those did is another matter.

You undervalue Theo and Tito. Theo built winner while making and then keeping the farm very strong, at times, and stronger than DD at its worst. Yes, he inherited a nice foundation, like DD did, but he built two winners that were almost all different players. He then, left Ben with a solid foundation for the 2013 win. DD left a pretty weak farm, some bad contracts and aging players at key positions. I once called Cora our "best manger ever" and caught a lot of flack over it. It was not meant as a Tito bashing. I loved Tito. I do think Cora will someday be called the best ever by many, but he has more work to do. This season is a big feather in his cap. The expectations were low, and we have the best record in the AL. Tito often had underperforming teams vs expectation. Now, maybe our expectations were wrong, but Cora is on the path to being the greatest.

This is so very true, and his influence on younger players and other vets is immeasurable. That being said, he's getting older. Replacing this JD with the 34-36 year old JD might not get the job done, either.

I think another big part of last winters one year signings was about finding out about a few positions before committing tons of money where we may end up not needing it. We only signed Kike & Sawamura to more than 1 year guaranteed, and those two deals combined for $17M/2. We wanted to find out about... Dalbec at 1B Cordero in LF Arroyo at 2B To some extent, Verdugo & Renfroe in the OF Houck, Whitlock, Seabold, Bazardo, Valdez, and to some extent Taylor, Brice and others. The ace in the hole was Sale giving the team a boost in August, if we happened to do well, this year. It looks like Whitlock and Arroyo are making a strong case for FT positions in 2022. Dalbec is floundering, but it looks like he'll be given a few more weeks at minimum. Taylor is winning a 2022 role. Eovaldi is answering the durability questions. As well aswe are doing, I think we are better positioned for 2022 and beyond, and not just because of financial relief on the way. That does not mean we should scrap 2021 in hopes of better years ahead, but I don't think we sacrifice 2022 and beyond to make a hard push for 2021. I think we have 2-3 players that other teams may give us something good for, and who might not really be favorites to make the 40 man roster, next year, due to rule 5 additions and a few expected free agents signings.

The winter before 2013, I said we "played it halfway" (or more like both ways- now and for the future).

One can view the Marwin, Andriese, Perez, Sawamura, Santana and Kike deals as bridge deals- not really "contending moves." The Ottavino and Richards deals, and maybe Kike could be viewed as trying to compete for a playoff slot in 2021.

I doubt we trade Dalbec for a rental. I don't think Casas is 2022 ready.

I like our chances at reaching the WS as much as any other AL team. Once we get to the WS, our record is pretty damn good, but of course there's the whole "return to the mean" thingy that keeps getting in the way.

If Bloom sees a roster crunch, this winter, especially with the 5-8 Rule 5 players who look like they might need to be protected, he may surprise us by trading 1-2 rule 5 candidates or players currently on the 40, like Potts, Rosario or Groome.

A ring would help, but that might not be until 2022 to 2024.

I also think sending him to AAA is not really "giving up" on him, but the thing is, we are supposed to be more competitive in the next few years, so how is giving him another long look next year going to go over any easier with this board? If we send him down, now, he may never get another long look chance. This might be part of the decision-making, right now.

I'd have been for extending him to this deal before 2020, and it goes against my philosophy to think a poor small sample size in 2020 should have changed my opinion, but it did. You are right about after 2020, but maybe not so much about Barnes not being worth it, but more or as much about the uncertainty of the free agent market due to COVID. I don't think comparing now to then is just about the skillset evaluation of Barnes. I do know many cringed at the thought of using Barnes as the closer, this year. Many were not happy about Ottavino in the role, either and at that cost. The market has changed, IMO. Parks are full. Salaries should return to the norm.

Perhaps he is just their best option, in case an OF'er gets hurt? Maybe he gets called up, if Arroyo gets hurt, again (Kike to 2B).

1.7 may be over-valued, but he's not really a negative value, so it can't be by that much. I think they had him at around 6 earlier in the year. That was way too high.

Still, worrisome, but with all his other skills, the K rate may not matter much.

Yes, trend towards but never reach it, unless the script is flipped, which goes against the “norm”

I meant to say “a main” not “the main.”

It’s down to 1.7, now, and my deals were all plus to the other team by more than that.

If the 29% final number is correct this math does not add up.