moonslav59

We paid $2.8M towards Beni and did not pay the $6.6M he was owed in 2021 or the full $5M towards the tax line did not count against us. Henry saved $3.8M by trading him, and we saved about $2.2M on the tax line, which would have put us over, this year and set the clock to year 2 in 2022 and year 3 in 2023, assuming we go over those years, too.

My guess is Franco and Duran both keep getting better than their early numbers. Of course, I could be wrong. Many promising prospects flop and are out of baseball pretty quickly. I'm sure glad we did not give up on Pedey and JBJ over much larger sample sizes than these.

All stats are flawed. CERA and OPS against by catcher is much more flawed when used wrongly. When the numbers continually show the same thing every year, except with Swihart, that the vast majority of pitchers with significant sample sizes with both catchers do better with the catcher not named Vazquez, that should not mean anything? Yet, a 20 games sample size by Duran is so telling?

I realize it's a sticky argument. If catcher determine so much how pitchers do, then maybe good pitchers are only good, because they had the better catcher, and the whole argument spirals out of control. That being said, look at the PA differentials between Vaz and Plawecki: Red= better differential by more than .010. With Vaz (OPS Against) 475 ERod (.771) 441 Richards (.895) 387 Perez (.784) 381 Pivetta (.717) 243 Eovaldi (.723) 208 Whitlock (.589) 164 Sawamura (.757) 142 Barnes (.474) 141 Andriese (1.002) 136 Ottavino (.520) 111 Taylor (.669) 106 D Hern (.762) 96 Valdez (.702) 77 Workman (.828) 75 Rios (.599) 49 Houck (.459) 40 Brice (1.056) Under 12 PAs: Bazardo .450, Davis .697, Robles 1.045, Brennan .788, Brewer 1.444, Arauz 1.150 with Plawecki 233 Eovaldi .668 118 Pivetta .718 66 Perez 1.248 56 Richards .682 56 Taylor .673 56 Houck .692 56 Ottavino .855 44 DHern .540 43 Valdez .418 33 Barnes .897 30 Weber 1.500 27 Andriese .675 24 Brice .492 19 Whitlock 1.158 12 Sawamura .444 Under 12 PAs: Davis 1.000, Rios .722,Workman 1.167, Arroyo 1.400, Marwin .000 The biggest swings in ratio of pitchers with specific catchers are these: Only Vaz has caught ERod Only Plawecki has caught Weber Plawecki has higher %'s per PAs with Eovaldi & Pivetta than Vaz Vaz has higher %'s with Whitlock, Barnes & Taylor (I might have missed other wide disparities.)

No, that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying it is possible total CERA numbers are misleading due to one pitcher catching much better pitchers much more often than the other and vice versa with bad pitchers. This is not the case with Plawecki and Vaz, as far as I can see. I did not look at RP'er comps, because all their sample sizes are super small, but I'm sure Vaz must do better with more, because his overall CERA is better than Plawecki's. Again, I was only trying to point out the flaws of using overall CERA and OPS against numbers to compare catchers from the same team. Our team often incorporates a type of loose pitchers with caddies system. We've had years where some starters were never caught by one of our catchers. Can you see how this would greatly skew the overall CERA numbers? Yes or no?

I get that, and that's one reason I am not for making Plawecki the starting catcher over Vaz. I wanted an answer to the hypothetical question that highlights why overall CERA does not tell the true story, when catchers catch one or two pitchers way more than the others.

Yes, it says he got off to a bad start, as many rookies do. Some get better: some don't. BTW, we already knew he K'd alot. The hope was, and still is, he can produce enough when he doesn't K and or can improve on his K rate and BB rate as he matures.

Had we signed Max instead of HRam and Pablito, things would have been way different.

Nobody is arguing against the idea that spending more increases the odds of winning. The fact is, Henry cares about spending and avoids the 3rd year mega taxes like the plague. Like it or not: that's the way it has been and will likely continue. My guess is, Bloom and Henry determined the best time to go way over the tax line was not 2021 but more like 2022 or 2023/2024. He did not want the tax clock on year 2 or 3 in those years. I get the argument about us knowing we are in the playoff hunt, this year and not knowing in future years, so why not go over, this year? That point has merit. The only thing that really makes a difference, is what Henry thinks.

I get what you're saying. I'm not sure you get my point.

Can you answer the question in the example I gave, where Vaz had the overall better CERA but was worse with every pitcher. Which catcher is better? (Is Vaz better only because he catches better pitchers more often?)

Okay, that's exxtreme, but $1.00 is not much different from $10M, when the multiplier effects of going over this year kick in 3 years from now, and we are ready to go over by $19M in 2024.

DD also caused 2019 and 2020. Trading away prospects to win now, and going over the tax line causing a future year reset is exactly what DD did, and now, you want Bloom to repeat just that. You can convince yourself that Henry will spend as much as you want him to, every year, and not care about the taxes, especially year 2 and 3, but until I see it, I'm going off the idea he dislikes paying taxes more than a year or two- spread out. The history sows the Sox have reset very often and several tiems, stayed under for 2-3 years in a row. What evidence do you have that suggests Henry is changing that strategy or philosophy?

I'd hold off on Arauz until Rule 5 time. We'll get to see more of him by then, as well as more from Potts, Rosario, Robles, Davis and a few other bubble players. I still have slim hopes for Arauz. Santana and Andriese? I'm done with both. noting points out 2 will have to go for Sale and Brasier, so the 3rd guy for Munoz is a tougher call. Maybe that's why that move has not been done, yet. Here are the bubble players I imagine may not make next year's 40 man (1 or 2 might): Robles Potts Rosario Davis Ro. Hernandez Bazardo (health outlook) (Long shot DFA's: Marwin, Richards, Perez) Cordero & Dalbec will be on the 2020 40 man roster, unless they are traded.

The 20 game sample size by Duran is close to useless. I would demote Arauz for Munoz and DFA any one of 3-4 guys (Santana, Robles, Andriese or someone who will likely be DFA'd this winter- like Potts or Rosario- maybe.)

Most articles written about CERA and OPS against numbers by catcher talk about not comparing catchers from different teams with these numbers and not looking at overall CERA/OPS against, unless both catchers catch almost all pitchers very evenly (highly unlikely).

You don't get it. Let's say Vaz catches mostly Sale and Eovaldi, and Plawecki catches mostly Richards and Perez, so Vaz has the better overall CERA, however, Plawecki does better with all 4 pitchers (yes, it's possible), you still say Vaz is better? Example: Sale 2.50 w Vaz 150 IP 2.00 w Plaw 50 IP Eovaldi 4.50 w Vaz 150 IP 4.00 w Plaw50 IP Richards 4.00 w Plawecki 150 IP 5.00 w Vaz 50 IP Perez 4.00 w Plawecki 150 IP 5.00 w Vaz 50 IP Vaz would have the better overall CERA but do worse with every pitcher. You still want Vaz starting with every pitcher.?

I know I never said we should trade Barnes, if we are in a playoff race. I have mentioned us possibly being buyers and sellers, but not to have a fire sale.

$1.00 under is the same as $111M under.

DD did that, and here we are.

Don't need to DFA Arauz. Add Munoz- DFA Santana (maybe Andriese)

4:10 start time. (Free game on MLBTV) Big game for Houck and the Sox.

My bad. Kike: .739 from 2019-2021. Plawecki .722

I think it is harder to do that in December, as all teams usually feel the rule 5 crunch, but of course those GMs look ahead, too.

That's just not true. I did mention it was something to think about, if we were not in the playoff race or tried to be buyers aand sellers like the Rays do. (Yes, I mentioned Barnes, Ottavino & ERod but never said I wanted to trade them.)