moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Here's my new Sox Prospect Rankings (assuming we sign our first fewpicks): 1. Mayer 2. Duran 3. Casas 4. Jimenez 5. Bello 6. Downs 7. Houck 8. Fabian 9. Seabold 10. Mata 11. Yorke 12. Song 13. McDonough 14. Ramirez 15. Winckowski 16. F Valdez 17. Bonaci 18. Groome 19. Wong 20. Rodriguez-Cruz 21. Jordan 22. Rosario 23. R Hernandez 24. Howlett 25. Murphy 26. Lugo 27. Ward 28. Hickey 29. German 30. T Reed
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Looks pretty close. Duran's stock has been soaring, though. Fabian has a pretty high ceiling.
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If he had 10 straight great PO games going forward, you'd then call him clutch. Look, every player has bed stretches. It may be related to luck, injury, strength of opponent or any combination of factors. If some plyer almost always did poorly every Wednesday, you wouldn't call him a Wednesday choke. My point is, how can you tell if the playoff sample sizes aren't just like the Wednesday example or some sign of lacking intestinal fortitude in big games? You can't. I can't prove it isn't either. -
If his agent says he can maybe get $45M/3 by opting out, he may take that over $20M/1 plus what he might get after the 2022 season. With player values still a bit unknown due to the whole COVID thing, you may be right.
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By season end, you may be looking at Kike and Arroyo with rosier glasses. (Maybe not.) I'm just pointing out that the same players blocking Duran, now, will be here, next year. The way things are trending, Kike and Arroyo may be held in higher regard than Verdugo by next April.
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No proof it's not just random. If he were to suddenly start doing well in the PO's, you'd then say he was clutch.
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If it was totally random, you’d see samples like Kershaw’s, so how does him doing poorly prove it’s a skill?
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I’m not saying you are wrong, but who does Duran replace next year? OF Verdugo, Kike, Renfroe 2B (kike to 2B)
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Where will soxprospects.com place our new draftees, assuming they all sign? Is this reasonable? 1. Casas 2. Duran 3. Mayer 4. Downs 5. Jimenez 6. Houck 7. Fabian 8. Seabold 9. Bello 10. Ramirez 11. Yorke 12. McDonough 13. Groome 14. Mata 15. Song 16. Rodriquez-Cruz 17. Bonaci 18. Jorday 19. Winckowski 20. Murphy 21. Lugo 22. F Valdez 23. Wong 24. Ward 25. Hickey 26. Howlett 27. R Hernandez 28. Rosario 29. MCElveny 30. Olds
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My eyes are getting worse. I was looking at his 4/18 start as the no-no. My bad. He did have one good start after the no-no, but them kaput.
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Depends who is not pitching. LOL.
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Would you do Casas & Downs for Means & Mountcastle?
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They will be no hit.
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He had an 0.98 ERA in his next 4 starts after the no-no. (.370 OPS against) His last 4 starts have not been great, but 2 were fine and none were Richardsesque. IP ER 6.1 4 7.0 2 5.0 3 (4.42 ERA in these 3 games combined) 0.2 2 (injury) He was not pitched since June 5th. Of course, he'd have to be healthy to be traded for.
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It's also important to not sign guys like Pablito and Crawford.
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I agree, and I think that time will be this winter. Even before this season peaked our expectations, I felt we could be very competitive starting in 2022. It should be an interesting winter. Unless we make some trades or expose several promising prospects to Rule 5, we may only have room for 3-4 FAs, tops. If we get near or over the tax line, next year, that would mean we could sign some big contracts. If we make some 3for 1 deals, maybe we sign 5-6 FAs at a lower average cost.
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To me, the only blockbuster type deal I'd like to see Bloom make would be for someone under control for more than 3 more seasons. (Like the Sale deal) Of course, that drives up the return cost immensely. Who here thinks Bloom would make these BTV approved deals for 3.3 years of John Means (worth 40.3 on BTV)? A. Casas 47.7 B. Duran 44.5 C. Downs 20.0 +Jimenez 10.8 + Mata 9.9 D. Pivetta 11 + Jimenez 10.8 + Mata 9.9 + R Hernandez 6.8
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It's hard to know anyone's norm after just 350 PAs, plus it's scattered over 2 seasons. Using minor league numbers is not wise. His career OPS is.745, but my guess is most players who stick around long enough to reach large sample sizes, improve on their first numbers out of the gait. I'm thinking Dalbec might settle around .760 to .820.
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I'm guilty of saying things like, "Why demote Dalbec after hitting .830 over his last 80 PAs?" I guess I could argue he is returning to his norm, as one could argue his previous 2 month slump was not his norm. The hard part is us not really knowing who the real Dalbec is. .
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I totally agree. His eye is on very long sustainability. Theo was like that and later admitted he lost sight of that, at times. This does not mean times occur where a big move or two may be needed to "get a team over the hump" at a slight expense to the future.
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Are there studies on slumps and hot streaks? Take a 750 OPS hitter. If he's hit .500 in the last 2-3 weeks, is he more, the same or less likely to hit over.750 in the next 2-3 weeks. Same with hitting 1.000 for 2-3 weeks.
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Most of the time, yes, but with the random nature of baseball and somewhat small and scattered sample sizes, once can expect variations from players' norms. Not everyone is going to hit exactly the same as their career norm in clutch situations any more that they would in any randomly picked sample size. It would be like saying hitting well on Mondays is a repeatable skill. Now, with all this being said, I do think there may be a slight influence on a player's numbers under the intense pressure of a bases loaded, 2 out situation in the 9th inning. Some players may be able to stay calm and focused more than others, and maybe their personality allows that to be repeatable, but with hitting a baseball being so hard to do, that influence is likely very close to negligible. You don't make MLB being someone who wilts under pressure.
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That's the unknown. Maybe Bloom thinks some of his prospects are wildly over-rated. I'm pretty certain there are some wide ranges of prospect evaluation among GMs. Maybe not many, but some, and all it takes is one GM to really like someone Bloom likes way less. We don't know who those prospects might be. I'd love to see Bloom's prospect ranking chart, if he even has one. Another factor is Bloom's vision on who will be on next year's 40 man roster. With pending FA signings and Rule 5 additions, he may identify 1-3 players that have some value, and decide to trade them now, rather than lose them, this winter.
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Exactly. Denying Clutch is a repeatable skill is not denying that clutch hits and stretches occur.
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Good read and solid proof.
