moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Yes, I was not super high on Wacha (or Giolito.) To me, both are risky for differing reasons. It's a close call, and I have no issues with anyone thinking Gio is a better gamble. Gio blows Wacha away in IP and GS, but Wacha is about middle of the road on both, and those are his worst numbers out of any. xFIP is not great, and MVP uses that stat often, so he is not singling out an area that does not usually matter to him. I respect that, but to me, we should not ignore WHIP, ERA- and ERA+, either, and Wacha has looked very good in those areas for the last 2 or 3 years. I did not expect this discussion to go on this long, but what else do we have to talk about? Snell going to the Yanks? Monty going somewhere else? Imanaga or Stroman as our last gasp stab at something useful? -
And nothing else counts, even when his IP are about middle of the pack. Got it.
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Grissom is not "little known" among those who pay attention to the top ranked prospects in baseball. I heard of him long before I checked his BTV numbers. The trade may backfire, spectacularly in two ways (or both): Sale could do great with ATL. Grissom may be the next Downs.
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Certainly, starting one in AAA makes sense, so they can play everyday, and that would open up a slot for Dalbec or EValdez. I'm also wondering, if we try to trade Refsnyder, especially if we add Teoscar or some other CF/RF'er. To me, the bench I suggested are the best players for the 26, except for the fact we have no back-up 1Bman with those 4. That's not a minor issue, and that is one reason I suggested devers take some reps at 1B. I'm not sure platoons in LF and or CF are the best ideas, especially when you want to get young players like Abreu and Rafaela enough playing time. LF: Duran-Refsnyder CF- Abreu-Rafaela Sitting ref is oka, but sitting Rafaela for the short end of a platoon is far from ideal. I agree. Trading Rey does not give Rafaela more platoon opportunities, but would likely get him more PAs- just still not enough. I've been one of Dalbec's biggest supporters, but I just don't see the value, anymore. It does make sense to start rafaela or abreu at AAA, but I think we should do better than Dalbec. If we are in sham mode, then who cares? Let's see what Dalbec can do, once and for all.
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DH: Yoshida LF: Duran CF: Rafaela or Abreu (The other is on the bench) RF: O'Neill Bench: McQuire Reyes Refsnyder Rafaela OR Abreu 4 bench slots.
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We will not start 5 guys at DH and 3 OF slots: One of these is also on the bench: Rafaela, Abreu or maybe Duran v LHPs.
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I think our 4 man bench, assuming we don't add Teoscar, will be Abreu or Rafaela, whoever does not start in CF, Refsnyder, Reyes and McGuire
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And Yoshida can play LF and push Duran to CF. All are better than we have for back-up 1B.
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LF Duran (back-ups: Refsnyder, Yoshida, Abreu) CF Rafaela-Abreu (Duran) RF O'Neill (Abreu, Refsnyder)
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Yes, if he goes on the IL, Dalbec will be called up. Who plays 1B when Cora rests casas once every 16 games?
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Here is a better way to look at it. GS split seasons. Wacha averaged 23.3 GS per season over the last 3 seasons. 150 slots for SP (5 x 30 teams) x 3 seasons= 450. 269 pitchers started 24 game over the last 3 seasons in any given season. That is over half or 450. 90 top tier out of 5 91-180 2nd tier 181-270 3rd tier which is where Wacha sits (high end of 3rd tier.) High end middle 271-360 4th tier 361-450 5th tier He's high end middle and this is his worst stat over the last 3 years.
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No, it's not, but you keep focusing on just the bad stats, when you often cite WAR. ERA- and WHIP are not meaningless stats, either. He is first in WHIP among the sample of pitchers in question. He is 3rd in ERA-. Does that mean nothing?
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In all fairness, better pitchers like Bello were not in MLB in all of 2022. He is likely about in the middle of FT SP'ers IP and GS from 2-22-2023 and 2021-2023. 2021-2023 GS (225 SP'ers with 100+ IP 94 Monty 84 R Hill 83 Stroman, Snell 82 Gray 79 Pivetta 77 Naate 74 Perez, ERod 70 Wacha (58th in MLB!) That's top 2 tier out of 5 tiers. Adjust for younger pitchers not in the bigs all 3 years, and he's likely about 75th out of 150.
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Nice line to pick. Wacha places 65 in IP as a SP'er from 2022-2023. Out of 150 SP slots in MLB, it's not good, but it is far better than most. IP 2022-2023 as SP: 267 Pivetts 262 Wacha 260 R Hill (2 teams) 253 Nate (BOS & TEX) 209 Bello (understandable, since he was called up in '22) 169 Crawford 122 Houck 108 Sale 367 Monty 346 Gio 308 Snell 304 M Perez 303 S Gray 272 Stroman 245 ERod
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Yes, that was my point. (Perez not Seabold.) In other areas besides xFIP, he was near or even better than many of the other SP'ers like Nate, Bello, Sale and ERod. Look at ERA- vs all of 'em- he's 3rd WHIP: He's tops in this stat IP is above Sale and near ERod & Nate 3 years IP 477 Pivetta (some as RP) 452 Perez (2 w TEX) 436 Nate (some w TEX) 429 R Hill (2 other teams) 401 ERod (2 yrs w DET) 386 Wacha (2 yrs elsewhere) (I won't count Bello for obvious reasons) 170 Richards (113 as SP) 151 Sale No doubt, the IP is not good, but... . ERA- 85 Nate 87 Sale 93 Wacha- a very decent number 93 ERod 99 Bello (106 Giolito) 107 R Hill 112 Richards 117 Kluber WHIP 1.17 Wacha 1.18 Nate 1.19 Sale (1.28 Giolito) 1.29 ERod 1.30 Kluber 1.32 Pivetta 1.34 R Hill 1.39 Perez 1.45 Bello 1.66 Richards Don't tell me WHIP and ERA- are meaningless stats.
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I'm liking the trade more and more, as I read about Grissom, and remember the recent years of calling Chris freakin' Sale, Freakin' Chris Sale.
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Well said. The Betts situation did "break" things, and what made it worse was the fact that we didn't even try to replace his and Price's contract money with anyone resembling a decent MLB player, until maybe Story in the late spring of 2022.
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I almost always use 3 years, and did provide the 3 year numbers on the Wacha-Gio comp. Just make sure you exclude WAR with your xFIP points made, and we'll call it even.
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It's a rarity and did not happen in 2022 or 2023, at all. GS 2023 Even counting DH starts, all Sox players got 11 games off. 149 Devers at 3B (+2 at DH) 135 Dugo OF 115 Casas 1B (+2 at DH) 2022 Even counting DH starts, all Sox players got 11+ games off. 149 Dugo (+1 DH) 146 Bogey (+2 DH) 139 JD at DH (0 in the field) 137 Devers (+3 at DH)
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Bader to NYM.
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I understood what you meant.
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So, who plays 1B, when Casas sits the mandated 10+ games of rest by Cora? I know you do not want dalbec on the 26 just for that. Until we sign someone else, who can play 1B, and somewhere else, I hope, I think EValdez might be the best option. (BTW, I'm not sure he belongs on the 26 either, but I think more than Dalbec.)
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No. I am using just your stat of choice, xFIP. I like the stat, but think it really hurts non-high K pitchers who get the job done. I value WAR, ERA- and ERA+ more than xFIP.. I also value WHIP and OPS Against as much as xFIP. In these areas, Wacha compares much more favorably. I know you also value WAR, but have not used that in this discussion. In your stat of choice, he falls about in the middle of Sox SP'ers over the last 2-3 years. Throw out Seabold and 4 were better- 4 were worse. That's his worst stat placement.
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Those are facts I did not know. The married part happens all the time. 14 year olds looking like 18+ does not, but does happen, at times. I must admit, I'm being pulled towards this being worse than just "creepy."
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...and their inability to pay attention to details and accurate, consistent messaging.
