moonslav59

BTV bases value on production estimate value - contract value: 23.8 Soto (1 yr left) 4.8 Verdugo (1 yr left) 2.9 Judge (due to 8 years of massive contract) 34.0 Duran (5 yrs of pre-arb and arb) 12.3 Rafaela (6 yrs) 7.8 Abreu (6 yrs) 5.7 O'Neill (1 yr) 3.3 Yoshida (4 yrs) seems like a gift 1.0 Refsynder (2 yrs) Prospects: 41.8 Anthony 21.5 Bleis This is not in anyway saying our OF is better than theirs. BTV values/years: NYY 323/8 Judge (40.4 per season) 57/1 Soto 14/1 Dugo Total: 111 for 2024 BOS 60/5 Duran (12 per season) 11/1 O'Neill (11 per season) 18/6 Rafaela (3 per season) 25/6 W Abreu (4 per season) Total of best 3 OF'ers for 2024: 30 Way short of the overall Yankees level.

Of course, but the post your replied to was talking only about defensive improvements, On offense, that OF is depending on way too much hope. O'Neill had an excellent 2021. (.912 OPS) His career numbers per 650 PAs: .248 29 81 (.776 OPS) The problem: 2022-2023 combined: Just 626 PAs .229 40 79 (.707 OPS) Duran (not included in best defensive OF alignment) 2021-2022: (335 PAs) .219 5 27 (.622) 2023: (362 PAs) .295 8 40 (.828) 24 SBs and 36 2B+3B Who will show up in 2024? Refsnyder: Role player/platoon Out of 200 batters with 200+ PAs vs LHPs since 2022, Ref places 22nd in OPS at .889. Rafaela: Unknown, Considered to have major holes in his swing, and barely walks. .666 OPS in just 89 MLB PAs .988 OPS in AAA (199 PAs) .800 OPS in AA (579 PAs) with 44 SBs Abreu: Unknown, but showed better plate discipline in minors. .863 OPS in small 85 PA sample size .930 OPS in AAA (363 PAs) .834 OPS in AA (579 PAs) w 31 SBs Yoshida to mostly DH? Who knows? Offense looked good, until mid August and was still at .800 on SEP 12th. Stamina questions. Will DH'ing more help?

Agreed. The offensive output is almost all speculative, for the Sox. O'Neill is the closest we have to a know commodity. Duran? 2023 or 2021-2022? Yoshida? DH or LF? Improved or more of the same? Rafaela? May start in AAA, be a D first CF'er or do okay to decent batting? Abreu? May start in AAA or be an unknown in MLB? Refsnyder? Looks like a platoon only OF'er with poor defensive skills.

On D?

Not much has changed under Brez, so far, except Giolito could stay for 2 years, if he sucks. Brez pitching additions: Giolito FA Isaiah Campbell Trade Richard Fitts Trade Justin Slaten Rule 5 Greg Weissert Trade Cooper Criswell FA Max Castillo Waivers Nicholas Judice Trade Jorge Benitez & Helcris Olivarez MiLFAs (I probably missed one or two)

Even with Duran in LF, our D should be better than 2023: Assuming health... C better or even 1B likely better 2B better SS better 3B: same LF: better (Duran>Yoshida) CF: better (Rafaela/Abreu>Duvall/Duran) RF: hard to know (Abreu/O'Neill > Dugo)

This makes trading Duran a good idea. I see Teoscar signed with the Dodgers for $15M, so that is one less LF/DH type off the boards. (Please, say no to Soler.)

It is interesting to look at this list of SP'ers since 2003, not that this is an indicator of what can or should be done, going forward: IP as SP for Sox 2698 Wakefield FA 1517 Lester HG (Home Grown) 1379 Pedro Trade 1240 Beckett Trade 1141 Buchholtz HG 964 Porcello Trade 848 ERod Trade 702 Lackey FA 670 Sale Trade 670 D Lowe Trade 667 Dice K IFA 651 Schilling Trade 579 Price Trade 445 Eovaldi Trade 430> Pivetta Trade 382 Doubront MiLFA 376 Arroyo Waivers 292 Pomeranz Trade 263 Wright Trade 256 Clement FA 231 Wells FA 218 Kelly Trade 209> Bello HG 198> Houck HG 194 Miley Trade 189 Peavy Trade 171 Fossum HG 171> Crawford HG 169 Dempster FA 162 M Perez FA 153 R Hill FA 132 Penny FA 127 Wacha FA 115 B Johnson HG 110 Richards FA 100 R de la Rosa Trade Notables under 100 96 Paxton FA 91> Whitlock HG 67> Wink HG Now, by fWAR (pitchers with Sox after 2002, but stats from 1995, if they were here before JH) 52 Pedro Trade 28 Lester HG 26 Wake FA 21 Beckett Trade 21 C Sale Trade 15 Schilling Trade 15 ERod Trade 14 Buchholz HG 13 Porcello Trade 10 D Lowe Trade 10 D Price FA 8.7 Lackey FA 8.5 Eovaldi Trade 7.8 Dice-K IFA 5.7 B Arroyo Waivers 5.0 Pivetta Trade 3.9 Houck HG 3.5 Doubront MiLFA 3.1 Pomeranz Trade 3.0 Wells FA 3.0 Hill FA 2.9 Fossum HG 2.8 Clement FA 2.8 Bello HG 2.7 Miley Trade 2.6 Wright Trade 2.5 Crawford HG Notables under 2.0 1.5 Wacha FA 1.4 Penny FA 1.3 Whitlock 1.1 Peavy 1.1 J Kelly 1.1 M Perez 1.0 Paxton

The sky fell, already.

Who are you referring to?

That very well could be true, but no leak of an offer made makes me (and Mazz) think we were not near what it would take. Maybe $350M doesn't do it. $350 would likely get us Teoscar, Gray and Monty, though. $75M Gray $200M Monty $75M Teoscar Of course, the AAV would be out of our range for 3 years.

The NESN viewer share has dropped from a high of 12 in 2007 to a 3.

A nice mix of how they acquired all 7. Lopez was acquired in a trade for David Phelps. 3 by trade 2 by draft 2 by IFA

Yanks are looking into a trade for Beiber or Luzardo. How does Miami do it, with these SP'ers? They traded Pablo Lopez and still have... Alcantara Eury Perez Luzardo Garrett Rogers E Cabrera We need to try and get the guys running the Miami farm system machine.

Some perspective: JH could sign 6 Yamo's at $333M each and still pocket $1.25B on a $750M investment. One Yamo at $350 should not have been a pipedream. Gray and Monty, either.

To me, our 8-9-10-11 RP'ers is one of the few strengths we have. But they are not so good that they could be traded for something all that great. Another strong area is the 1-7 RP'ers, assuming we add a solid innings eater ace or 2 innings eaters SP'ers.

You can win by trading for aces, but the need to supplement through free agency will always be a need, as well. Only TBR has shown they can keep winning without one of both. We have lived off trading for aces, but only when we had another one, too. Now, we have none, so I agree, one trade for an ace is not enough. If we traded for one and maybe signed Monty, we might have a shot. That ain't happening, from where I sit.

Here is another Mazz video: (The team was bought for $750M in 2001-2002, including the park and cable network. It's worth over $4.5B, now. They could have signed Yamamoto.)

It's hard to keep track of the Seattle roster. It's always a revolving door. Your team does look good, on paper.

I do think we are a ways away from being a top competitor, but I'm not so sure we are that far from being a solid WC competitor. Our defense was horrendous, last year, but I do see some hope it will get closer to average than we could ever hope last year's team could be. C: I think Wong & McGuire should improve. Many catchers don't mature until their 30's. 1B: Casas did better at the end of 2023. He's young and seems to study the game hard. 2B: Grissom played mostly SS, and wasn't very good at it, but our 2B position was near last in MLB in 2023. I'm hopeful we can get to the norm.' SS: Stroy's heath is everything, here. Reyes of DHam are not good on D at SS. 3B: Devers has shown flashes of being okay to good, but I'm not expecting improvement. We will likely be bad, here, again. LF: Yoshida playing more at DH should help, greatly. Keeping Duran in LF as much as possible will also help CF. CF: I'm hopeful that Rafaela and or Abreu can start 140+ games in CF. Big plus. RF: O'Neill might be slightly worse than Dugo, but Abreu should do better than last year's RF depth. Overall, I see us moving from 29th or 30th to about 15-20th.

Okay, "Great" was hyperbole, and I'm sure everyone's pen would be better or much better, if so many pen arms weren't forced into starting. I really think our pen was very good last year, and being 4th in IP did not help the numbers make a very good case for greatness. We ended up using 28 pitchers in relief, and one was not Houck (21 GS and no RP games.) Hopefully, we can and will reduce that amount in 2024, but a lot will depend on who and how many are forced to start. I'm not hopeful we add two more solid pitchers, but even adding one innings eater would, IMO, make our pen very good to great. In 2023, we had 9 pitchers with under 10 IP: Kelly, Weiss, Bearclaw, Sherriff, Littell, Scott, Lamet, Faria and Reyes- and this does not count "opener games." They totalled 44 IP, mostly with bad ERAs. The 15-19th in IP pen arms were: Ort 6.27 in 19 IP Garza 6.23 in 17 Kluber 9.45 in 13 Robertson 6.55 in 11 Joely 6.55 in 11 That's another 70+ IP of horrible numbers. Let's say we add 1 solid SP'er who should start 30+ games and give us 170+ IP. For argument's sake, say we stick with Houck, who seems to do well vs the first 18 batters, and with the amount of long RP'ers we will have, we should be able to absorb his early yanks. Bello 30+ GS 160+ IP __added__ 30+ GS 160+ IP Giolito 30+ GS 170+ IP Pivetta 30+ GS 160+ IP Houck 30+ GS 140+ GS This pushes Crawford to the pen, and leaves us with this: Jansen (maybe a top 10 closer) Martin (maybe the best set up in MLB) Crawford (a bit of a question mark but some huge upside) Winckowski (can he repeat 2023?) Whitlock (hopefully is healthy and back to 2021-2022 form) Schreiber (needs to stay healthy) Bernardino (looked really good, last year) Slaten or Mata (whoever wins ST'ing) The minor league depth looks way better than 2023: (Bernardino, if Slaten & Mata make the 26) Campbell Criswell Murphy Fitts Kelly Weissert Guerrero That looks pretty damn good to me. It is not our weak area.

To me, there seems to be 3-4 higher level posters who seem more optimistic than the rest of us, and I don't see any of them defending JH & Co., especially on budget issues. notin has spoken of the high risk of spending on big FA pitchers, and what he said is 100% true, but he's not defending JH on spending. He wanted him to sign Gray. That hardly looks like an apologist.

So, you are the Sox PR employee! Classic!

This is relying heavily on players already on the roster to improve and or stay healthy. I happen to agree, we should expect improvement from several returning players, especially fi we can put them in positions where they can be more successful. Story is the big question. Whitlock and Houck had career worst seasons in 2023, but both have electric stuff, when healthy and used correctly. While Casas, Duran and Wong could all take a step back in '24, I'm thinking expecting the 3, combined, to improve seems logical. Crawford and Wink took big steps forward in '23. Can we expect the same? Is it illogical to expect regression? Bello struggled to end the season. I'm thinking he should improve. Martin and Jansen can maybe be expected to do the same or slightly worse. Pivetta, Schreiber, Bernardino, Refsnyder, Reyes, EValdez and others are too hard to project, as are Abreu, Rafaela and other youngsters. Looking at the roster turnover, only, I can't say we look better. We might be, but I can't say, "yes." O'Neill (more from Abreu, Rafaela & Duran) for Dugo & Duvall (Maybe) Giolito for Paxton, Sale & Kluber (Maybe/possibly Yes) Grissom for Arroyo & Co. (Yes) ______ for Turner (No) Campbell, Fitts, Weissert & others for Bleier, Brasier, Ort, Llovera & Co. (Yes)

I disagree on the depth thing. Only a back-up 1Bman seems like an issue. I don't agree with all of soxprospects 2024 roster projections, and their projected 2 SP'ers till to be added is highly questionable, but this is our "depth:" on 26: McGuire, Reyes, Refsnyder, EValdez Minors on the 40: (not on 40) SP: Wink, Max Castillo, Walter, Wikelman (AA), Pereales (A+) (Fitts & Gambrell) RP: Campbell, Criswell, Murphy, Weissert, Z Kelly (Guerrero, Hagenman, Benitez, Olivares) (Scott, Teel)) 1B: Dalbec (2B: Yorke) SS: DHam (Mayer) CF: Rafaela (Anthony) RF: Abreu (Rosier) (DH: Hickey)