moonslav59

My bad. I thought they jumped him up to #10 on their July 6th rankings list, but they did not. He played 25 or so more games, afterwards, and I was thinking he could have jumped more due to those games. You are right. He won't jump more than 1-2 slots.

This doesn't mean we can never win without two solid SP'ers, but it seems to help- maybe for the Sox more than other teams. It does seem like other teams can win with just one mega ace who just dominates... like Bumgarner, Beckett (w MIA), but when you look closely at most WS winners, they had 2-3 solid SP'er with 25+ GS and were strong through the playoffs. Good point about Nate becoming the #2 in 2018 (over Sale.) Sale was a big part of getting us to 108 wins.

I actually did this one with you in mind, particularly the Jansen trade component.

BTV accepted these two trades, which would clear up a lot of roster slots for Rule 5 plus 3-4 FA signings: Duran, Rafaela, Yorke, Drohan & Mata for Mitch Keller Jansen, Verdugo & Kavadas for Christian Javier Sign one from Yamamoto, Gray, Snell, Montgomery, Nola Sign Bellinger & Duvall SP: Gray, Keller, Bello, Javier, Sale/Pivetta RP: Bednar, Martin, Winckowski, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Schreiber C: Wong & McGuire 1B: Casas (Devers) 2B: Urias & Reyes SS: Story (Mayer) 3B: Devers (Urias) LF: Abreu & Refsnyder (Yoshida/Rosier) CF: Bellinger (Abreu) RF: Duvall/Abreu DH: Yoshida (EValdez)

BTV has these value and possible matches.... Yorke + Rafaela at a value of 34.5. Keller PIT 36.0 Sandoval LAA 33.8 Kelly AZ 30.9 Burnes MIL 30.3 Ashcroft CIN 29.5 Yorke + Duran would be 47.4. Cease 50.5 CWS (would need to give someone like Perales, too.) Detmers 48.7 LAA Dugo + Yorke would be 22.4. Alcantara MIA 23.8 Singer KCR 24.7 Note: These are just BTV numbers. I'm not sure any of these teams would make these trades, even if we added players like Romero, Perales, Mata, Hickey, Drohan, Walter or Murphy types. It may show "ballpark" offers needed, and who we might be able to get.

Probably not, but he did jump from #48 to #10 after just 21-22 games. He did very well after those first games, too. Maybe #10 to #7 or 8 is more realistic.

They are updating all the time, but seem to take a long time on some players. They finally dropped Yoshida to 0.4, but even that seems too high. Looking at their numbers, now, half the Sox top 10 value players may start 2024 in the minors: 60 Mayer 42 Anthony 39 Casas 36 Bello 30 Duran (jump back up in value) 29 Bleis 29 Crawford 22 Houck 17 Yorke 17 Rafaela 17 Whitlock 14 Schreiber (seems high) 12 Winckowski 10 Devers 10 Pivetta 6 Drohan (seems high and has not been adjusted in a long time) 5 Verdugo 5 Perales 4 EValdez 4 Romero 4 Wikelman & Bernardino 3 Meidroth, Abreu, Martin, Urias, E R-C, Jansen, Alcantara, Cespedes 2 Wong, Paulino, Monegro, Mata, McGuire, Jordan, Castro, Bastardo, DHam, Murphy 1-2 Walter, Brannon, Jimenez, Lugo, Hickey, Bonaci, Guerrero, Rogers, Robertson, Refsnyder Others between 0-1 3.0 Turner -8.6 Sale -80.4 Story

He better be a really good RP'er.

Nobody is disputing he has not given us what we expected. His 2.6 fWAR in 137 games is pretty close to what he did in his last 2 years in COL, per game, but we need a 3.5 + fWAR from him. I'm not giving up hope on that, but so far... Yuck!

Notin worded it wrongly. He meant to say, "Why doesn't MLB make the Mariners draft for the Sox."

Yes. I know. I think that would improve, if he showed he could hit for a stretch.

Speaking of the 2024 MLB Draft, here is the odds simulator for pick order. Top Pick 16.5% OAK, KCR, COL 13.3% CWS 10.0% STL 7.5% LAA 5.5% NYM 3.9% PIT 2.7% CLE 1.4% DET 1.1% BOS Here are some mock drafts: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10082215-2024-mlb-mock-draft-early-predictions-for-top-1st-round-baseball-prospects 1. Oakland Athletics: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina 2. Kansas City Royals: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida 3. Colorado Rockies: Chase Burns, RHP, Tennessee 4. Washington Nationals: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep (Miss.) 5. Chicago White Sox: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa 6. St. Louis Cardinals: Derek Curiel, OF, Orange Lutheran (Calif.) 7. Detroit Tigers: Tommy White, 1B/3B/, LSU 8. Pittsburgh Pirates: Braden Montgomery, RHP/OF, Stanford 9. New York Mets: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake (Calif.) 10. Chicago Cubs: Carter Holton, LHP, Vanderbilt 11. San Diego Padres: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro (Ariz.) 12. Los Angeles Angels: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State 13. Minnesota Twins: Pierce Coppola, LHP, Florida 14. Seattle Mariners: Thatcher Hurd, RHP, LSU 15. Boston Red Sox: Paxton Kling, OF, LSU http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft (AUG 29th, draft order has changed.) 1. OAK Chase Burns RHP 2. KCR Travis Bazzana 2B/SS 3. COL Vance Honeycutt OF 4. CWS JJ Wetherholt 3B/3B 5. STL Konnor Griffin SS/OF 6. PIT Jac Caglianone LHP/1B 7. DET Brody Brecht RHP 8. NYM Nick Kutz 1B/OF 9. Cam Caminiti LHP 10. SDP Charlie Condon 1B/OF 11. CLE Tommy White 1B 12. LAA Derek Curiel OF 13. NYY PJ Morlando OF 14. MIA Braden Montgomery OF/RHP 15. CIN Bryce Rainer SS 16. Pierce Coppola LHP 17. BOS Hagen Smith LHP

Very true, but he is a plus defender, already, but he has to prove he can hit well enough at the AA/AAA level to be viewed as a can't miss or near can't miss prospect.

Maybe Story has to produce for a stretch to get his trade value up, but I do think some teams might want him at his current salary without us paying anything. At worst, we may have to pay a few Million. The return would likely be next to nothing or some decent, but faraway prospect. A swap of big salaries could also be an option, but we would also have to add a SS, somehow.

Are you trolling, again?

All but the part about amounts of wins in certain years are opinions, and not a very good ones either. Yet, he almost always ends with ... Those are the facts and the facts are undisputed.

Agreed. Not now, anyway. Yorke plus Rafaela or Duran might.

Forcing Yoshida to play LF is not ideal, but for many years, the Sox have won with a poor defensive LF'er. Anyway, this is likely 1 to 2.5 years away from possibly happening. I don't get concerned about possibly having a surplus of good players at one position. We can just trade somebody, if it comes to that.

This certainly bolsters the position that it is or in large part is a crapshoot, especially since the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams. Still, there is evidence the better teams have a better chance, so it's not toally random, as a crapshoot implies. Since 10-12 teams made the playoffs, each year.... 2022: Astros 106 wins (1st in wins) 2021: Braves 88 wins (12th in wins) 2020: Dodgers (Most wins) 2019: Nationals 93 wins (8th in wins out of 10 teams) 2018: Red Sox 108 wins (1st out of 10) 2017: Astros 101 wins (3rd out of 10) 2016: Cubs 103 wins (1st out of 10) 2015: Royals 95 wins (3rd out of 10) 2014: Giants 88 wins (T8th-10th out of 10) 2013: Red Sox 97 wins (T 1st out of 10) 2012: Giants 90 wins (10th out of 10) It seems like only the top 3 or bottom 3 teams almost always win it all.

I've never discounted the value of defense. I'd love Chapman of our team, despite knowing it will never happen. His addition would improve our D at 3B and maybe hurt it in LF and CF. It would be a net gain on D. I'm not disputing this. It also makes all pitchers look better. I get that. To me, the upgrade over what we have: DH Yoshida 1B Casas 3B Devers LF Duran/Ref CF Raf/Abreu to DH Casas/Devers 1B Casas/Devers 3B Chapman LF Yoshida CF Duran/Raf is significant and worthy. I do not think it outweighs this: SP Gray, Snell, Montgomery over Crawford or Houck plus Crawford or Houck in the pen over Murphy, Kelly or Bernardino. It's basically, Gray replacing Murphy. I see that as a bigger net gain.

I'll say "I know it when I see it." I just laid out some of the Sox best teams since 1967. Almost all of them involved having solid SP'ers. Many had 2-3 solid SP'ers and fewer starts outside the top 4-5 in the rotation, mainly due to good health, having 4-5 decent SP'ers or not having any better depth. Our ring years almost always checked both boxes: 2-3 SP'ers with more than 24 GS and very good ERA+'s Under 30 GS by SP'ers not in the top 5, unless we traded for one like Nate, Pom or Peavy. It's hard to deny good starting pitching has had a major impact on whether the Sox win or not. It's not an exact correlation, but you never find that in MLB.

This was directed at notin vias your response to him.

If we want to go with just anecdotal evidence, let's take the team we know the very most about: the Boston Red Sox. Rotations: focus on 1-2 punches and how many GS outside the top 4-5 SP'ers.) 1967: Lonborg "and 3 days of rain." (He started 39 games in a different era.) Lee Stange 2.77 is awesome, but he pitched in relief for 11 of his 35 games. Gary Bell 3.16 for 24 starts was awesome, too. Darrell Brandon 4.17 (19 GS and 20 RP gms) 56 GS by 8 others (including 11 Bennett & Santiago, 9 Morehead, 8 by Rohr & Waslewski) By the stats, it looks like they had 2-3 solid SP'ers, but in that era, it was really only 1. 1972 (missed the ALCS by 0.5 games in the unbalanced games played strike year) 35 Pattin 3.24 (looks like an ace in today's game, but not then.) 30 Siebert 3.80 (a decent #2) 22 McGlothen 3.41 21 Curtis 3.73 19 Tiant 1.91 (27 GS by others, including 16 by Culp and 7 Krausse) This was a decent rotation, and we don't know how they might have done had they made the 4 team playoffs.) (The '73 team won more games than '72 but finished 6 games out: Tiant 35/3.34, Lee 33/2.75, Curtis 30/3.58, Pattin 30/4.32, 15 Moret 15/3.17 and only 19 GS by others.) Here is where I feel "the era" changed... 1975 Does not checked either box, but Tiant, Wise and Lee were a better 1-2-3 than surrounding years. 35 Tiant 4.02 (Hero in the playoffs) 35 Wise 3.95 34 Lee 3.95 20 Cleveland 4.43 16 Moret 3.60 20 by others: 11 Pole 4.42 I'd argue this was a deeper rotation than previous seasons, but it still lacked a serious 1-2 punch. 1977 team won more games than 1975, but finished 2.5 out. 4 of the top 4 SP'ers by GS had ERAs over 4.26. (Tiant was at 4.53 and Jenkins was #2 at 3.68) 1978 won 99 games and missed playoffs due to 163 game loss to NYY 36 Torres 3.96 35 Eck 2.99 31 Tiant 3.31 24 Lee 3.46 16 Wright 3.57 (11 Ripley 5.55 & 10 by others.) This team seemed to have the formula to win. A nice 1-2-3 punch with Lee as the #4. 1986 lost WS in 7 games to NYM 33 Clemens 2.48 (perhaps the best SP the Sox have ever had, along with Pedro.) 30 Boyd 3.78 (nice numbers, but I'm not sure we can say he was a solid #2 punch.) 26 Nipper 5.38 (Yikes!) 25 Hurst 2.99 (could be viewed as a solid #2) 16 Seaver 3.80 31 by others (10 Sellers 4.94/ 6 by Brown 5.34) 1995 finished first in 3 division AL 29 Erik Hanson 4.24 27 Wake 2.95 23 Clemens 4.18 21 Z Smith 5.61 14 Eshelman 4.85 32 by others (12 Cormier 4.07) 1998 a 92 win team that made the playoffs as a WC team thanks to Pedro 33 Pedro 2.89 33 Wake 4.58 31 Saberhagen 3.96 (a decent #2, that year) 23 Avery 5.02 10 Lowe 4.03 32 by others (8 by Wasdin 5.25, Schourek 4.30 and Rose 6.93) 1999 a 94 win team that lost in the ALCS 29 Pedro 2.07 (WOW!) 27 Portugal 5.51 26 Rapp 4.12 22 Saberhagen 2.95 18 Rose 4.87 40 by others (17 Wake 5.08) (2002 won 93 games and missed the playoffs: (32 Lowe 2.58, 30 Pedro 2.26 was a great 1-2 punch! Then, 29 Burkett 4.53, 23 Castillo 5.07, 15 Wake 2.81 w 30 gms as RP) 33 GS by others (12 Fossum 3.46) 2003 We all know the story of 2003 33 Wake 4.09 33 Lowe 4.47 30 Burkett 5.15 29 Pedro 2.22 That's a lot of starts from the top 4, but no solid 1-2 punch) 14 Fossum 5.47 23 by others is low. (10 Suppan 5.57) 2004 First Ring in over 8 decades! Checked both boxes: Great 1-2 punch and minimal starts outside the top 4-5 in the rotation: 33 Pedro 3.90 124 ERA+ in this hitter's era 33 Lowe 5.42 32 Schill 3.26 148 ERA+ 30 Wake 4.87 29 Arroyo 4.03 (120 ERA+) Only 5 GS outside the top 5! Lowe and Wake did not have great seasons. 2005 won 95 games but lost in ALDS (No Pedro & Lowe) 33 Wake 4.15 32 Arroyo 4.51 32 Clement 4.57 30 Wells 4.45 16 W Miller 4.95 19 by others (11 by Schill 5.69) It's amazing we won so many games with this rotation, but we did not get far in the playoffs. 2007 World Champs, again! (Beckett & Schilling as the solid 1-2 punch, but not much support beyond them.) 32 Dice-K 4.40 31 Wake 4.76 (almost 400 IP from our 3-4 SP'ers) 30 Beckett 3.27 24 Schilling 3.87 23 Tavarez 5.15 22 GS from others (11 by Lester at 4.57 and 7 by Gabbard at 3.73) (2008 won 95 games and lost in the ALCS: 33 Lester 3.21, 30 Wake 4.13, 29 Dice-K 2.90- maybe a good #2, that year, 27 Beckett 4.03, 15 Buch 6.75) 29 by others. Once could argue this rotation had a pretty solid 1-2-3 and they should have gone farther.) (2009 also won 95 games but lost in the ALDS: 32 Beckett 3.86, 32 Lester 3.41, 24 Penny 5.61, 21 Wake 4.58, 16 Buch 4.21 but 37 by others w 12 by Dice-K 5.76 and 8 by Smoltz at 8.33.) We had a decent 1-2 punch but not much more.) 2013 was the 3rd ring! 97 win team: Had a 1-2 punch but 28 GS outside the top 5. 33 Lester 3.75 29 Lackey 3.52 29 Dempster 4.57 27 Doubront 4.32 16 Buch 1.74 (WOW!) Added Peavy 10 GS with a 4.04 ERA (2016 won 93 games and lost in ALDS: 35 Price 3.99, 33 Porcello 3.15 was a solid 1-2, but then... 24 Wright 3.33, 21 Buch 4.78, 20 ERod 4.71 and 29 by others w 13 by Pom at 4.59.) (2017 also won 93 games, but Price was hurt: 33 Porcello 4.65, 32 Sale 2.90, 32 Pom 3.32, 24 ERod 4.19, 15 Fister 4.88 and 26 by others w Price at 11/3.38) 2018 was the 4th ring year! It had a very decent 1-2-3 and even 1-2-3-4 punch- 5 with Nate added. 33 Porcello 4.28 30 Price 3.58 27 Sale 2.11 (WOW!) 23 ERod 3.82 11 Nate 3.33 38 by others does not "check the second box, but the trade for Nate explains some of this. 13 GS by Johnson 4.17, 11 by Pom 6.08, 8 Velezquez 3.28) (2021 won 92 games and went farther than many imagined: 32 Nate 3.75, 31 ERod 4.74, 31 Pivetta 4.53, 22 Richards 4.87 some as RP, 22 Perez 4.74 some as RP, 25 by others w 13 by Houck at 3.52. Erod did not really provide the 2nd "punch.") It's my contention that having a solid 1-2 (or 1-2-3) punch with fewer GS outside the top 4-5 best SP'ers does not guarantee a ring, but with very few exceptions, every ring year we had checked both boxes. Many seasons we came close also checked both boxes or checked one box with emphasis. There are other ways to win rings. The Sox have not been very good at winning rings without 2-3 solid SP'ers in the rotation. This does not mean we cannot win, unless we have 2-3, but to me, pitching has always been the best key to winning. Not the only one, but the best.

I get the argument that teams have won without great or even good SP'ing. The Royals were another example. It happens rarely. That is not evidence to support the fact that adding 2 SP'ers instead of 1 SP'er and a decent RHB who plays plus 3B D is the better idea. I can find many examples of teams winning despite a poor fielding 3Bman. How about starting with 2018?

If we spend almost the same for Chapman as Gray or Montgomery, why would it have to be so unlikely?