moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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It's just about who might have the higher WAR: it's about who they replace and that differential. Adding Chapman unleashes a complicated formula on what is gained over the status quo. We may gain on D at 3B, but lose on D in LF (Yoshida DH>LF) and CF (Duran LF>CF,) and probably PAs would be taken away from Rafaela, Abreu and Refsnyder- maybe Urias, too. What is the net gain in WAR? Adding a solid 150+ IP not only would be a major gain in the rotation WAR, but would also boost the pen WAR as someone like Houck or Crawford would move to the pen and replace Murphy, Kelly and a slew of lesser arms. I see the net plus on WAR by adding a solid pitcher as significantly more than Chapman adds. By how much? Who knows. The simple theory is this: Team A has a 1.0WAR 3Bman a 0.5 WAR SP. Does signing a 5 WAR 3B add more to the team than a 4WAR SP'er? (Then, what if the 0.5 WAR SP replaces a -0.2 RP in the pen, while the 1.0 WAR 3Bman helps the bench, but not at a 1.0 clip, due to way less playing time.
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Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
moonslav59 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Maybe? 1B/DH Devers/Casas 2B Yorke SS Mayer 3B Story -
Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
moonslav59 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
His repeated mention of Yorke and not Anthony and others exposes his ignorance. -
I have to ask: what's up with Tommy Pham? Does he need to be drug tested?
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You can sign any two of these guys, which two do you choose? Hypothetical: same cost at a 4 year deal for all. Chapman Gray Snell Yamamoto Montgomery To me, any combination without Chapman is better than any with Chapman.
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Like on the Exorcist? Apparently, OAA has replaced fWAR as the most important stat of the day. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see us improve our corner IF defense, and moving Devers to 1B has almost always appealed to me. If Chapman costs as much as Duvall, I'd be driving notin's bandwagon, but we need funds for pitching- the more the better. (The more, the more likely we do better, is more like it.) I'd almost rather have us add no RHB and spend it all on pitching, and even trade a top prospect for another pitcher than to spend over 30% of our winter budget on 3B/RHB. I'd rather spend it all on pitching and play Urias at 3B 75% of the time than sign Chapman while skimping on pitching. I think we can cobble together a good enough OF with Yoshida at DH: LF: Duran-Refsnyder platoon (Abreu/Yoshida as depth) Should end up near or over .800 CF: Rafaela (Abreu/Duran as depth) The big gamble. RF: Dugo or Duvall, if we trade Dugo (Abreu as depth) Most easily predictable results, here.
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Kansas upset #6 Oklahoma. #13 Utah is beating #8 Oregon, so maybe ND jumps up 2 slots, this week. (OKL may still rank higher.)
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Seager and Garcia are dialed in!
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If we went with Yoshida in LF, Rafaela/Duran in CF, and Dugo/Abreu in RF, it is no added cost. If we add Duvall and trade Dugo it may cost next to nothing. If we add Duvall and trade Duran, it would still cost way less than Chapman. I agree, improving 3B and 1B D id better than improving LF D, and Chapman fills the RHB role, well. I just don't think we should spend that big of a percent of our winter budget on 3B/RHB. I'd rather send Yoshida to DH, sign Duvall and use the difference in spending on a better pitcher (s.)
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Certainly 3B defense is more important than LF. Your idea does have merit, but moving Yoshida to DH costs nothing, and we have 3 LFs to take his place
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Chapman would fill that need. It would also force Yoshida to LF and lessen the need to bolster the OF.
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I get that. What’s worse is that I thought they tried harder in 2022 and 2023 and got worse results
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It's that time of year! What else is there to talk about?
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Is 3B and 1B a higher overall need area than any other Sox positions? I know the two corner IF'ers we have were worst or near worst in '23 on D. D is not everything. Besides, we could also play Urias at 3B and rotate Devers/Casas at 1B/DH, if you see corner IF defense as more important that fixing the rotation and lack of a big RH's bat.
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I don't think we were trying to win enough to make the playoffs in 2021. We could have done more, and did at the deadline. I don't think it is all that bold to think we purposely did not spend enough to be serious contenders for even a playoff slot. We signed one guy to two year (Kike.) You don't get serious impact players for $10M/1 (Richards was the one guy at $10M) or less. Come on! Richards, Kike, Marwin, Santana, Andriese, Sawamura and Renfroe? These guys scream for 2022 to arrive. I suppose the hope of ERod and Sale was enough to give hope, but IMO, we did next to nothing to improve our chances significantly. You speak of the core from 2018: they were closer to the core from 2019, minus Betts, Price, Porcello and others. To think the list of guys we signed plus Dugo, Ottavino, Pivetta and a couple other add ons was enough to improve on the non playoff team of 2019 was not enough to think it made us a playoff team is BOLD, I think we differ on what "bold" means..
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Where did I say defensive positions of strength. Are you saying 3B and 1B are two of our weakest overall positions? If yes, you clearly no longer value fWAR.
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It wasn't. I love Nate and wish we brought him back. He was looking invincible, until last night. I pointed it out.
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Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
moonslav59 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
What's the reality for maybe 6-10 MLB teams in the gutter, every season? -
Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
moonslav59 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Nobody has hinted at tanking guaranteeing great draft picks or the ability to afford top FAs that work out well. We ar arguing that teams set up their rosters to try and lose, so they better their position for the future- via better draft picks in every round, more bonus pool money and a cleared up budget for the time the team decides to go "all in." Some teams never end up going all in. They "tank" or whatever you want to call it to make more money by spending less. -
Of course trading Jansen, but replacing him in kind or better would not be a "punt." It does seem like many or most of your "hypothetical examples" focus on our positions of strength. Sorry, I worded it incorrectly.
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I don't see it as "bold." We sucked in 2020 and barely added anyone believed to be a significant impact player. I felt we signed a bunch of 1 year deals as a bridge to 2022 and beyond. I did not think we seriously felt we could win. I don't recall you being optimistic that spring, but maybe I'm wrong. What do you base the bold question on? ERod and Sale's return?
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If I had to answer, now, I'd say Yes. Hader may cost more than Jansen and will certainly get more than the one year we owe Jansen, but it would be nice to lock up the closer role, longterm. We could get 2024 salary relief by trading Jansen and get something good in return. It's my philosophy to look at our weakest positions to try and upgrade. I'm not shut down on improving positions of strength, but I tend to focus on high need areas, first. Your ideas have been for 3B (Chapman), SS/2B (Ahmed) and Closer (Hader.) I'm sure I missed some other ideas, but those are not areas I'm looking at, first.
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They were not trying to win enough to make the playoffs in 2021. We obviously have different ideas of what "punting" means. To me, it means not trying to win this year in hopes that we can be better, next year. We ended up doing much better than expected and were buyers at the deadline. Maybe if I change the word to something other "punt" or "tank" we can find common ground.
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Very few thought those additions to the 2020 roster, even with ERod and Sale returning was going to be enough to be favorites to make the playoffs. To Sox fans, IMO, not being favorites to making the playoffs is some sort of "punting," a "bridge year" or GM incompetence. Looking at the winter spending budget of '21-'22, and considering the major budget cuts before the 2020 season, it seemed obvious to most, we were not expecting to make the playoffs, let alone come one game away from making the big dance.
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Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
moonslav59 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
You don't think purposely putting inferior players on the field with the purpose of losing, so you get top picks is a form of "tanking?" I agree, I do not think anyone told players or the manager to intentionally lose games.
