moonslav59

Yes. Wacha may have looked okay, the year before, in terms of GS and IP, but he was not very good and was injured or inconsistent for many years, beforehand. He had not gone more than 127 IP since 2017, before giving us 127.1 in '22. He had a 5.05 ERA and 4.47 FIP in '21 and 6.62/5.25 in '20. To me, that screams reclamation more than Giolito or Kluber (not Richards.) Maybe a better choice of words could be used for Hill, but at that age, almost everyone is considered a risk, if not a reclamation project. Yes, he had 32 GS in '21 with a 3.84 ERA and 4.34 FIP, so in the short term history, he was not technically "reclamation," but his injury history has been well documented for many years. 4 GS in 2015 w BOS (injured almost all season) 20 GS in '16 25 in '17 24 in '18 13 in '19 8 out of 12 in '20 31 in '21 26 for BOS in '22 was the second most since 2008 (15 years,) so yes, a reclamation project in my eyes.

Looks about right. We may also try to trade someone to make room for the next FA, assuming there is one. Trading out-of-options Mata makes sense, but the return may be near nothing. Slaten may be returned via Rule 5 rules, but we will wait until at least ST to decide on him. Bobby Dee might be on the list, too, but near the bottom, I suppose.

No, they did better than Richards, Kluber and Perez I & II, as stated twice.

So, trade Story? (soxprospects has Story at 2B, Mayer at SS and Grissom at DH in '25.) Is that Zack Kelly as SP? No Schreiber, Fitts or Bernardino love?

Maybe not all 7.

Certainly, understandable.

True. It was still weird how the lower contract signings that looked like reclamation projects did better than the two $10M guys and Martin Perex I & II.

I found this on Pedro... The Red Sox signed Martinez almost immediately to a six-year, $75 million extension that included a $17.5 million option for 2004. Martinez's overall body of work over those seven seasons with Boston? A 117-37 record with a 2.52 ERA and 1,683 strikeouts in 1,383 2/3 innings.

Indeed. JH's biggest blunder- way worse than Lester, Beltre, DLowe or anyone else.

Indeed, and discussion is not necessarily worrying.

SS: Reyes 2B: Grissom Full throttle!

I'm just fed up with these high risk signings. It might be nice, if we got one right, every now and again. It's weird how the two that did okay (Wacha and Hill) made less than Richards, Kluber and Giolito and about the same or less than Martin Perez I & II.

I wish we extended all three, but it's not like we never extended good to great players. We actually did extend Bogey- just not twice, and the opt out hurt. We extended Pedro & Schilling. We extended papi many times. We extended Beckett & Porcello. We extended Bogey & Sale. We extended Devers. I'm sure I missed a few other. We rightly did not extend Ellsbury and a few others that declined after leaving us. It's not like we've gotten it wrong, every time, but feel that Betts was in a class by himself and demanded extra attention and resolve to get it done. JH chose Bogey & Sale over Betts. He was never going to do all three, IMO.

Agreed, and I mentioned this in that post where I spoke about contorting ourselves trying to figure out the budget stuff and where the money saved went.

Well said. I think this kid will improve.

If the deal was made to save JH $10M, and the money is not spent, it makes the trade worse. I don't think that is a silly position to take. I understand that if the budget is set at a set number between $10-20M below the tax line, dumping $10M of Sale's contract means we have $10M more to spend than otherwise, but in the overall view, spending up to the tax line means we spent Sale's money "saved," and if it spent well, it's a plus to the trade.

Yes, and he did not have TJS until after the extension. I saw it like this. They extended him to $145M/5, which if healthy would be a steal. I think they felt a TJS was likely and that he'd be worth $145M/4, even if he missed a full season. While $38M x 4 was a lot of money for a great SP'er back in 2019, it was not absurd, and certainly is not, now. (Ages 30-34) I can understand those who disliked the extension. He was already showing signs that TJS was near, and sometimes, it takes 18 months to get back to form, that could be 1.5 to 2 seasons missed depending on the timing of the TJS.

I get that, and am hopeful Giolito does max out in 2024. However, this matters, too: 2022-2023: bWAR/ERA(ERA+)/FIP 6.0/4.33 (101)/4.22 Pivetta 3.3/4.89 (86)/ 4.70 Giolito People talk about the great start of the 2023 season by Giolito as a sign he can still be very good, well take a look see: Giolito in first 19 GS or 2023: 112 IP: 17 HRs/ 34 BB/ 117 K 3.45 ERA 4.18 FIP Some long stretches by Nick: 2023: 97 IP (8 GS/20 RP) 13 HR/31 BB/135 Ks 3.05 ERA 3.27 FIP 2022: first 16 GS 95 IP/ 10 HR/ 32 BB/ 91 Ks 3.23 ERA 3.67 ERA 2021: first 11 GS 60 IP/ 4 HR/ 28 BB/ 68 Ks 3.77 ERA 3.27 FIP (Larger sample size in '21: first 17 GS) is close to Gio's 2023 numbers, too. 92 IP/ 13 HR/ 42 BB/ 109 K 4.09 ERA 4.10 FIP It looks like Pivetta has had some very nice stretches in all 3 of his last 3 seasons. All compare nicely with Giolito's stretch in 2023. The problem is, Nck has never done this for a full season, like Giolito did from 2019 and 2021, but that was 3 and 5 years ago. Do we really know Gio will return to that form for all of 2024. That being said, I do like Gio more than Pivetta, due to his IP numbers and non stop GS'd, but I'm not so sure about his ability to pitch way better than Nick in 2024. Nick has shown some high level skills for 15-19 game stretches. Some cherry-picked longer stretches by Nick: Nick '21: first 23 GS/ 4.20 ERA/ 4.17 FIP (124 IP) '22: first 25 GS/ 4.24 ERA/ 3.98 FIP (142 IP) '23: last 28 G w 8 GS: 3.05 ERA/ 3.27 FIP (97 IP) Lucas '19: first 25GS/3.20/3.20 (153 IP) '21: all 31 GS/3.53/.3.79 (179 IP)

I wonder, if we had increased that "famous" $200M/8 offer to $220 or even 240/8, if Mookie would have taken it, with his mom's blessing. The extension offered to Bogey does seem like a slap in te face, but in all fairness, that year was after the 3 years beyond the opt out year (2023,) when Bogey would be 33 years old. While Bogey's OPS+ had remained pretty steady until 2024, his OPS declined and RBI/SLG had shown some serious decline: OPS+: 135 ('18)> 139>128>129>131 ('22) OPS: .883>.939>.867>.863>.833>.790 SLG: .522>.555>.502>.493>.456>..440 RBI: 103>122>41 (2020)>79>73>58 2018-2019: .300 56 220 (1278 PA) .914 OPS (137 OPS+) 2021-2022: .301 38 152 (1234 PAs) .848 OPS (130 OPS+) To me, it's not a slam dunk Bogey will be worth $25-30M from ages 34 to whatever. I wish we found a way to keep him, but I also see we have a superior defensive SS on the roster for the next 4 years, and we'd either have to play him at 2B or move Bogey to 2B, against his wishes.

I like this list. If the budget is rigid, Gray is #1, although ERod's AAV is lower.

Fangraphs Projected 2024 WAR: C: 0.8 McGuire (9th best)/0.1 Wong Pretty harsh on Wong 1B: 3.0 Casas (2) 2B: 2.3 Grissom (3) WOW! 3rd best WAR on everyday player list! SS: 1.7 Story (T5) Kinda low, to me. 3B: 4.7 Devers (1) LF: 1.7 O'Neill (T5) CF: 1.3 Duran (T7) RF: 1.3 Abreu (T7) DH: 1.9 Yoshida (4) OF: 0.7 Refsnyder (10) IF: 0.5 EValdez (11) UT: 0.3 Rafaela (12) IF: 0.2 Reyes (13) Pitchers: 2.5 Bello (169 IP) 2.4 Giolito (181) 2.0 Pivetta (161) 1.8 Houck (142) 1.6 Crawford (145) 1.0 Martin (66) 0.9 Jansen (64) 0.7 Whitlock (68) 0.5 Wink (67) 0.4 Walter (28) weird 0.3 Schreiber (64) 0.2 Murphy (60), Bernardino (58), Mata (64), Criswell (39) 0.1 Campbell (48) 0.0 Slaten (55), Weissert (44), Llovera (35), Kelly (31), Jacques (28) 0.0 Guerrero (24), Weiss (19), Castillo (17), Fitts (9) & Liu (9)

MLB.com gives the "best fits" for these 11 remaining FAs: Snell- LAA Bellinger- CHC Monty- NYY Hader- TEX Chapman- SFG (another article says TOR) Imanaga- BOS JD Martinez- AZ Hoskins- WSH Soler- TOR Stroman- BAL Teoscar- NYM MLB.com's first 2024 Power Rankins: 1. ATL 2. LAD 3. TEX 4. BAL 5. PHI 6. HOU 7. TBR 8. NYY (15th best in '23) 9. AZ 10. TOR (4 of the top 10 are from the ALE! Also, 3 of top 8. 11. SEA 12. NYM (why?) 23rd best in '23 13. CHC 14. MIL 15. CIN 16. SDP 17. MIN 18. STL (25th best in '23) 19. BOS (19th best record in '23) 20. DET 21. Marlins 22. Giants 23. Guardians 24. Angels 25. Royals 26. Pirates 27. White Sox 28. Nationals 29. Rockies 30. A’s

Please, sign him quickly!

soxprospects.com podcast talked about the Sale trade. Some interesting points: 1. Grissom had a collision, last year and missed a few games, but no injury was reported. They said maybe it affected his production and defense. 2. They think maybe the Grissom addition "MIGHT" free up the idea of trading a middle IF depth on the farm (Mayer or Yorke?) They question how the team sees Yorke in their future. 3. If we get 6 good years from Grissom, the trade is a great one. 4. Sale's velo decreased as the year went on, and that was worrisome, but his upside potential seems to be worth more than $10M/1. He will face easier opponents, too. On Giolito: 1. The optout is about the same as a QO, so if he does well, he'll say no to the option, and we can offer hima QO and reep the benefits, if he says no. 2. If he does poorly, it will hurt us. 3. His fastball results dropped almost every month in 2023. 4. He has good upside and has several seasons that match or better Monty's best seasons at 1/2 to 1.3 the cost.

LOL. Which one or two would you have wanted, if only 1 or 2?