moonslav59

I do think depth is great, but not at the expense of top quality. While I admit, no team will take 2-3 good pitchers for one better one, unless he's a salary dump or injury risk, I'd like to see us try.

Who are you talking about? Don't be shy: name names.

Trying to find a way to be optimistic, despite the lack of top quality players on the roster, I do think we look to have a pretty decent foundation or supporting cast to the few top players we have and maybe some we acquire or promote from the minors over the next 1-3 years. Top players 10 yrs Devers 5 yrs Casas 5 yrs Bello Decent players with a chance to be a top contributor 4 yrs Story 1 yr Martin 1 yr Jansen Chance at being a significant plus: 5+ yrs Grissom 5 yrs Winckowski, Duran, Wong 4 yrs Houck, Crawford, Yoshida 3 yrs Whitlock 1-2 yrs Giolito 1 yr Pivetta, O'Neill Maybe decent role players 4 yrs Reyes 3 yrs Schreiber 2 yrs McGuire, Refsnyder Questionable 1 yr Criswell 5+ years of control/ pre-ARB A- Anthony, Mayer, Teel B- Bleis, Abreu, Rafaela, Cespedes C- Slaten, Bernardino, Campbell, Yorke, Fitts, Murphy, EValdez, Zanetello Meidroth, Castro, Jo. Garcia, Hickey, Romero, Monegro, A Anderson, Hoppe D- Mata, Z Kelly, M Castillo, Wikelman, Perales, Walter, DHam, Weissert Jordan, Paulino, Dobbins, E R-C, Guerrero, Alcantara, Troye, Arias F- B Dalbec, Jacques, Weiss In theory, I'd look to make some 2 or 3 for 1 trades that improves on quality over quantity, add some strategic FAs of high quality, and maybe make a trade for two for top players with 3+ years of team control.

You said it in far less words than I.

We certainly have a need for high quality players. In 2020, the 40 man roster and farm were so depleted, it made sense to try and incrementally build up with a quantity of marginal quality players, until we reached a foundation, where we could fill in a few holes with free agent signings or trades. Since the Nate trade in the summer of 2018, we have made precious few trades designed to make us better, right away. Even the ones that were, also involved a prospect thrown in, such as Ottavino with German, Pivetta with Seabold, JBJ w DHam and Binelas. Our FA signings have been the model for quantity over quality. Only Story and Yoshida were meant to be major impactful, and neither has been, so far. The highest need area on the Sox has been glaringly obvious for every season since 2019: Starting Pitchers. Our SP additions tell the whole half-ass story: 2020> Perez (34 GS- 6th ranked in this time period) Pivetta (81 GS leads the Sox since 2020: 20 more than Nate) Richards (22- 11th ranked) Perez II Wacha (23- 10th ranked) Hill (26- 9th ranked) Paxton (19- 12th ranked) Kluber (9- 15th ranked) Others: 61 Nate (2nd) bolted as FA 41 Houck (3rd) 39 Bello (4th- in just 2 seasons) 36 Crawford (5th) 31 ERod (31) bolted as FA 19 Whitlock (13th) 15 Winckowski (14th) 7 Mazza, 6 Seabold, 5 Weber, 4 Brewer Best ERA- from 2020-2023 (as SP only): 81 Wacha - bolted as FA 85 Nate -bolted as FA 87 Sale -traded away 93 Houck - may be in pen 99 Paxton - FA, now 99 Bello - still in rotation 101 Perez- gone 103 Pivetta (SP/RP?) 104 Hill- gone 104 ERod- gone 109 Whitlock- (SP/RP?) 114 Richards- gone 116 Crawford- (SP/RP?) 138 Wink (SP/RP?)

The Sox optimist might say, "They are waiting for the Sox to 'clear up salary space,' before signing with us. The Sox pessimist might say, "They are holding out for absurd amounts of money way out of our price range."

There doesn't seem to be any coherent or steady plan. That being said, since dumping Kimbrel & Kelly after 2028, our pen is now very strong. I'd say top 5, if we can add a SP'er or two and slide Houck, Crawford or Pivetta to the pen. It's also pretty deep down into AAA and AA. We have 2 massive holes in the top of the rotation. Bello is a fine #3. Giolito is a very fine #4. Between Pivetta, Crawford and Houck, our #5 looks very good, when compared to 25+ other teams. We have a massive problem with defense, although it should be better, if Story can stay healthy and Grissom plays steady but average D at 2b. If we can avoid Duran in CF, our OF could be better with Yoshida at DH, most games and maybe Rafaela and or Abreu play a lot. Catcher might improve as Wong matures. 1B might improve, as Casas sis look better second half of '23. 3B will likely be the same: bad. If we could add good 2 SP'ers or one really good one, and somehow improve the D further (not Teoscar,) that might be enough to get us to a WC slot, and further set us up for 2025-2026, when 2-3 good prospects might make an impact.

I know my method of ranking the top 150 SP'ers in MLB (30 teams x 5 SP'er) and designating them as #1s (1-30), #2s (31-60) and so on is flawed, but it is no surprise that the Sox don't have any 1s or 2's who were with us all 3 seasons. It is noteworthy, that we have to set the IP level at 200 for 3 seasons (66 per season) to get a sample size of 150. Some pitchers have less IP, because they just came up, other were injured. When people say no good SP'ing is or was available, I scratch my head. Like my system or not, these are some notable pitchers by ranking in fWAR since 2021 (some have injury, age or other concerns): 3. Burnes 8. Cease 11. Castillo 12. Ohtani (won't pitch in 2024) 15. F Valdez 16. Monty (in this methodology, he's a solid #1) 17. Gray (signed for a very reasonable contract) 18. Snell (only Ohtani has a higher WAR and less IP) 19. Woodruff (injury) 22. Kershaw (will miss part of '24) 23. Urias (may end up in jail) 24. Beiber (injury?) 27. Nate (with Sox from '21 to '22) #2s 33. Gilbert 34. Stroman 41. ERod 46. Giolito 52. M Keller 54. Mahle 56. Luzardo 57. Montas (despite missing '23) 59. Glasnow 60. J Quintana #3s 61. Wacha 62. L Garcia 63. Manoah 64. C Javier 67. R Ray 69. T Rogers 75. M Perez 77. Pivetta 78. Garrett 84. Manaea 85. Civale 87. Houser 89. Greinke 90. Desclafini Some of these guys are not currently "available," but were recently traded or signed.

We had and have a great bull pen. We need more guys who can go 5 IP with 1-2 runs allowed- maybe 3 from time to time.

If we end up trading Yoshida, Teoscar makes more sense. I see O'Neill in RF, for what that is worth. I want to avoid us using Duran in CF, but I'm thinking it will happen more than I like. Teoscar kinda forces that to happen.

You need to take a hard look at your positions, lately.

Damn straight!

I totally agree. Trying to slightly improve your 4th or 5th starter is not winning us a ring. Even significantly improving your 3rd starter is not ever going to be enough, unless you already have a solid 1-2, which we are far from having. I do see Monty as a solid #2. He may even be a top 30 pitchers, which might make him a technical #1 in MLB. At this point, he looks like the best option. I'm not expecting us to sign him or Snell. I'm doubtful we even sign Imanaga or Stroman, but part of me is holding out hope that the reason these guys aren't signing is that they are waiting for the Sox to "clear some budget space," so they can make a winning offer. I know, I know- fat chance!

Good post. I will add that the Sox were making money hand over fist for the 30 years prior to the 2004 ring, yet we kept watching, knowing we probably could have won a ring had we signed Catfish Hunter or one of the many studs other teams signed from the 70's to the 90's. Those teams did seem like more fun to watch, despite some years where they looked awful. We also had the continuity of players, many homegrown, that we could become attached to without seeing them all traded or bolting to free agency. (That late 70's purge as the exception.) While I know many top prospects never pan out, I can't help but be excited about our top 4, now. I also think 1 or 2 from the next 5-6 will be impactful. We have a core of 24-29 year olds that are under team control for 3+ years, so I do believe there is a light at the end of the tunnel, except for ONE GLARING HOLE: STARTING PITCHERS! We have enough budget space to sign a SP'er or two and depth of position players to trade for one or two. We just are choosing not to do it. Maybe the grand plan is to do it, next year or in 2026, but I'm tired of waiting. Giolito is just another Kluber, Richards, Perez or Wacha in many ways. I do think he has a better chance at doing well than any of those did, but he is basically a reclamation project at double the pay. I'm still far from optimistic about 2024, but I have not given up on the extended future. Unless a change is strategy is made, I won't be optimistic 1, 2 or 3 years from now, either.

Fans almost always judge in hindsight, although in Story's case, we all knew he has arm issues, when we signed him. If you look at today's FA prices, and the numbers Story put up, even if just looking at his away numbers while with COL, $140M/6 looks llike a good deal. I'm not buying the idea that we should wait until we think we can win to pounce with spending. While I do think the team core might look better in 2025 or 2026 than 2024, we could add some pieces that could help us now and then. Maybe Gray's age is worrisome for 2026, but we did not have to sign Ohtani or Yamo to get to serious competitive levels. Hell, I see a way we can still get to a point where we should be playoffs competitors: sign Monty, Stroman or Imanaga and Teoscar. This would likely put us over the tax line, but not the second one, and if we traded Jansen or Yoshida, we could stay under the line, It's not rocket science. We can compete and still keep our top prospects intact without going over the tax line.

I agree, and our long term future is the best aspect of this team, except SP'ers. You mentioned the big 5 pitcher additions: Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Lackey and Sale and in almost every case, they were coupled with another great, and at other times some complimentary SP'er were added to increase our odds of winning. Schill joined Pedro on a staff that already had DLowe and Wake (another addition from before.) In 2007, We had Beckett paired with Shill, but also had added Dice-K, and Lester was beginning to mature. By 2013, Lester, perhaps the best homegrown SP'er this team has produced since Clemens, was joined by Lackey (FA) and Dempster (FA). Doubront (MiLFA) & Buch made for a pretty solid 5. Injuries forced the addition of Peavy at the deadline. One SP'er you failed to mention was Price, who came before Sale. It was no fluke that team was the best ever as other additions were far from slouches: Porcello, ERod & Nate- all from trades. That rotation had no homegrown SP'ers, except Brian Johnson with 13 GS. 6 of the top 7 SP'ers by GS were acquired by trade (5- the 4 mentioned plus PomPom) or FA (1- Price). We have proven we can win by adding SP'ers, mostly by trade. The Price and Lackey FA signings were important, but not as impactful as the trades. I do also agree with Dipre: we need to fix the SP'er acquisition & development program, and soon. It does look like some changes have already been made, but it will be years before we see results- good or bad. In the meantime, I'll continue whining about the payroll and lack of focus on adding SP'ers via trade or free agency.

Here is how BTV views our 4 winter trades: ATL: Sale -5.7 + $17 Cash BOS: Grissom 17.1 (net +5.8) SEA: L Urias 1.2 BOS: I Campbell 1.9 (net +0.7) Combined (2B + P matches up): ATL/SEA: Sale, $17M + Urias= 12.5 Boston: Campbell & Grissom= 19.0 BOS: +6.5 ___________________________ STL: N Robertson 1.6 + V Santos 0.4 BOS: O'Neill 5.7 (net BOS +3.7) NYY: Verdugo 4.8 (net +1.9) BOS: Fitts 2.1, Weissert 0.8, Judice ??? Combine 2 (RF + Ps) STL/NYY: Dugo + Robertson + Santos= 6.8 Boston: O'Neill + Fitts + Weissert= 8.6 BOS: +1.8 Overall: BOS +8.3 FA Signings: +0.9 Giolito (Value: 39.4/ Salary 38.5) +0.7 Max Castiilo (3.8/3.1) Rule 5: +0.9 Slaten

lol! .

Hard to know. They did lose JD. It might depend on what we pay and or expect back. I'm not sure who wants him, assuming at a discount rate, at some degree.

Good points, and I did say Giolito probably equals Paxton + Sale, but the rotation was our big weakness, and looks no better, on paper, IMO. I do think it is natural to compare last year's team to what we think this year's team looks like to see if we can expect better, about the same, or worse. Of course, nothing is for certain. I think I have reason to not be optimistic, right now. I do realize the winter is not over.

It's not, but normally, that happens when the team looks like it improved on paper- not always, but usually. Yes, the winter moves are not over. I'm not broken up over losing Sale, Dugo and Urias. (I expected the last two might happen.) Losing JT and Duvall is pretty significant, and maybe O'Neill and Grissom can make up for that (or upticks from more players than not.) Losing Sale and Paxton may seem like a plus, but their GS'd ranked 4th and 5th and 39 GS is almost 1/4th the total. Giolito is known for starting 30+ games a year, so that comes close to matching the 39 GS lost and 199 IP, too. The rest of the players lost look to be addition by subtraction, and our depth looks good enough, so we can expect improving on their numbers. About 200 PAs by Urias and Tapia at .700. About 650+ PAs of sub .640 OPS by the others lost, combined. Kluber, Bleier, Llovera, Ort, Brasier and others combined for a putrid 150+ IP. Hopefully, we see just 0-5 IP from the likes of Jacques, but there is no guarantee Campbell, Criswell, Mata, Slaten, and others do better. How well will Schreiber and Bernardino do? Were they just "flashes?" Hell, soxprospects has Wink starting in AAA, so that is a sign our pitching depth is pretty good, but again, to me it looks a lot like we are repeating the quantity over quality plan, over and over, with the same results. Maybe as spring approaches my optimism will return, but I think I'll need a big boost or two with some significant additions by then.

I'm thinking we have less than 1% chance at landing Snell. Less than 25% at landing Monty. Less than 40% at Imanaga or Stroman. If you add all these up, maybe we have a 50% or better at landing one of these 4. Then, maybe 50% at landing Teoscar or Duvall. Maybe less that 50% at adding another SP'er, assuming we get a top 4, like Paxton or Ryu. I might be overly generous with these numbers.

Me, too, and there is still time to make some additions, maybe some quite significant ones. So far: Lost: Turner (626/.800) Dugo (602/.745) Duvall (353/.834) Urias (109/.698) Sale (103 IP/4.30 ERA) Paxton (96 IP/4.50 ERA) Kike (323 PAs/.599 OPS) Arroyo (206/.638) Chang (112/.552) Tapia (97/.701) Mondesi (None) Kluber (55 IP/7.04 ERA) Brasier (21/7.29) Bleier (31/5.28) plus a bunch of minor leaguers who saw some ML time. Additions: Giolito O'Neill Campbell Slaten Fitts M Castillo C Criswell Weissert plus some minor leaguers who may get MLB time (Olivares, Benitez, R Perez, M Contreras, J Westbrook and more...) This is not the overhaul I'd hoped for, but maybe more is to come, shortly.

Who is Juan Soto? LOL.

Yea, that was kinda bogus mentioning TOR might add some, later, but I did mention they "lost the most," so maybe they might be faves for 5th place, right now- or co-faves.