sk7326

I think the trade was silly. But that is separate from how the team is doing now - it's not like there is some salary cap calculus. But what the winning streak I think has shown is that really what this team needed to do was to "play better" ... there was no magic here. There was no magic adjustment or anything - guys who the team were counting on (Giolito, Story, Rafaela) just started to play better.

The Sox could have afforded to keep him - it's still a silly trade. That said, Breslow's moves have all been hits so far - even if the Chapman signing is total found money. (there was zero reason to believe he'd be the best reliever in the AL)

Sigh. Fielding percentages are based on errors - which is, at its core, an opinion. And of course fielding percentage says nothing about actually getting to balls. Yoshida is certainly better against lefties than Abreu - but they are both quite bad. And Abreu is arguably a more valuable hitter against righties ... higher higher slugging with only a slighly lower OBP.

It would be nice to have Priester for sure. The draft pick was probably the prize of the trade - so we'll see there. The .206 kid in A-Ball is less damning than it seems - given how young he is for that level, and at least by the stat line some good swing decisions. But it'd be nice if he showed more.

Abreu's splits are not actually that different than Yoshida. Yoshida has that "proven hitter" smell because the team signed him to hit. Duran had a terrific season in 2024 - though it was his best defensively by a mile. He has been less effective defensively this season at a nominally easier position - but the question is whether 2024 is the rule or the exception. As long as this is the lineup, Rafaela will get some spins at 2B. But Duran makes as much sense as anybody to be traded due to positive value. I'd probably deal Abreu first - but it's not obvious to me.

After his record setting shortest walk off homer ever, nice to see Ceddane get to hit a no doubter.

The first 6 were against hot garbage opponents, but credit where it's due - the Sox won those games decisively - which was not happening earlier in the season.

Rafaela has been the 3rd best CF in the majors. I'm not moving the best or second best CF in the league makes a ton of sense. Now Abreu has struggled against lefties - but at a certain point, it kind of might not matter if he has been as productive as he has otherwise. Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu with Refsnyder as a quite good 4th outfielder is actually pretty solid? And longer term maybe a guy like the Password is going to sort of solve some of this too. (if he is not dealt for pitching, which is certainly plausible)

Final mock draft answers ESPN (McDaniel) - Gavin Fien, 3B, High School (CA). ESPN's #12 ranked available. Uneven spring but very good last summer Athletic (Law) - Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee. McDaniel noted that Sox was interested in him in high school. Law observed Kilen scores well in the batted ball data and swing decision metrics the Red Sox like, and last year 9 of the Top 10 picks were collegians. With the scouting reduction and increased focus on Statcast type data, Law assumes it will remain college heavy. Law's Big Board rankings of Sox connected guys https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6454202/2025/07/01/mlb-draft-2025-top-100-prospects-holliday-doyle/ Gavin Kilen #7 Gavin Fien #12 Xavier Neyens, #17, 3B, High School (WA) Charles Davalan #25, OF, Arkansas

The blindspot OAA has in addition is that it doesn't have much to say about the play at the catchpoint. The dive or leap might not matter enough.

I have been leaning more to OAA just because the inputs are so much higher quality than they have been for UZR/DRS etc. The measurement also seems fairly direct and comparable to some of the metrics that have appeared in other sports (football and golf most notably).

Yeah - it is nice they are playing well. It is wild that Rafaela is leading the team in WAR.

the 30% strikeout rate is an eyebrow raiser ... I am not always sure whether holes in swings get better fixed here or at AAA - and it does vary by guy. But I'm willing to be patient for sure.

It feels like an inefficient use of resources - especially since Mayer has been good at 3B. But it'd be nice if the bat hit the ball more often.

Going back down is not a crime - he moved very quickly ... about time he see some adversity ... we'll see how it goes

From Keith Law's updated Top 50 (2 months in - it is a couple weeks old) - Mayer was in the big club so not under consideration 1. Anthony 8. Arias 46. Garcia Montgomery is at 20, and Teel is at 24 ... so that is looking like a trade that is going to help everybody

2 one-run wins this weekend ... really there is some evidence of bad luck turning around ... but still need more.

The term "Estimate" is doing a lot of work here ... given your world view here, this would largely completely negate almost the entirely of human scientific discovery. Indeed, the Statcast data are not guesses AT ALL. They are just adding more facts to the soup - how often does the player get the barrel of the bat on the ball, what is the launch angle. Those are things being measured. As far as your question - the metrics are calculated using regression on thousands of game interactions. I mean there are 200 to 300 of them in every single game played. Now, non-pitchers and non-catchers are not participating in most of those events - but it still adds up well past the sort of sample sizes where outliers have an outsized impact. I tend to lean towards more data is better. If you really think about it, slugging percentage is a guess! It is assuming that a double is twice as valuable as a single ... this is something you can actually test, indeed that's what is going on.

In particular, a lot of the inputs teams are probably using in-house are incorporating all of that PitchFX and Statcast data that is coming in. The nice thing is that data is starting to allow the industry to DIRECTLY measure these areas (defense, contact quality) which we've intuitively understood but could only quantify indirectly.

If you look at baseball reference's definition of Replacement Player - it notes that a team of Replacement Players i.e. the sort of guy you can find on the waiver wire or in AAA ... their winning percentage would be about .294 ... about 48-114 over a full season. The Red Sox in 2024 had a combined team level of 26.8 position bWAR and 12.7 pitcher bWAR. That comes out to 87.5 wins, which is a little higher than the actual 81-81, but well in the neighborhood. In 2021 is 24.4 position, 18.9 pitching which gets you to 91.3 wins in a season where they actually went 91-70. The offensive portion of WAR is quite factual - it assigns weights based on historical analysis - to something we all know intuitively: all bases are not created equal and not all batting outcomes are equal for scoring runs. The defensive part is dicey just because measuring the most important part of defense - GETTING TO THE BALL - is not quantified by any sort of box score "factual" component. With pitching, I look at it this way. fWAR is - in general - a better forward looking indicator. What happens after a player makes contact IS very noisy. However, FIP assumes that all batted balls in play are effectively random, and that is obviously not true. The nice thing is, the batted ball data we are getting now helps there. If there is a good FIP combined with iffy line drive rates, that sounds like something which will correct in the future. bWAR is a bit better for awards, because it is speculating a bit less. Either way, if you are using WAR expecting one stat to explain everything, that is a you problem. WAR in general is good for doing historical comparisons, and for identifying candidates to be considered further for awards and whatnot. I do not know whether a player with 6.2 bWAR had a better season than someone with 5.8. But I do know both of them were terrific.

Looking at the Statcast Data so far. (outs above average) 1B: Casas/Toro combined for -3 OAA, (26th of 35 qualified) 2B: Campbell -7 OAA (48th of 48) 3b: Bregman +2 (8th of 35) SS: Story -3 (30th of 35) LF: Duran -2 (25th of 38) CF: Rafaela +9 (2nd of 37) RF: Abreau +4 (2nd of 37)

This is a fair take - I'm not even sure I disagree. Honestly, the move is to trade Duran or Rafaela (I lean Duran). And at a certain point - Abreu probably has to move ... because The Password is looking very interesting, though that might be a 2026 interesting.

Yeah - this is the rub. Personally, the move is to shop Duran ... who is one of their best trade chips period. But who knows if/when that would happen.

The simple ones are that the team's OF'ers have been mostly good and that it is a VERY left-handed lineup to begin with. I don't think those are necessarily reasons that should stop the team from promoting him - but I can see why they feel they can take their time to a degree.

I admire his commitment to the bit. But ... 1. Cora was on an expiring deal last year. If Breslow wanted to let Alex Cora go, he'd have done what a lazy person like me would have done ... nothing. 2. I understand the pull to fire Cora. The team has apparently lost 789 one run games this season. You can nitpick about managing and execution. But - it's also possible that a 6-17 record in one-run games is stupid chaotic baseball. If the team went 12-11 in those 23 games, the team is 38-29 and people are in a less agitated state. You have to acknowledge at least the possibility than they will just win more 1-run games because of math. 3. Ultimately players they depend on need to play better. Story has had a couple of good games in a row - is this a sign? (I am guessing no, but hey - I might be wrong) Campbell looks like maybe he is over his May swoon - something entirely reasonable to get from rookies. (I am guessing yes here) 4. On the bright side, Devers is having his best season - that's cool. And the new guys have all been big hits. Really, THAT has been the bummer. Crochet has been everything we wanted, and the team has not had much recordwise to show for it.