sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Garcia has done better with his swing decisions. He still might not be a great OBP guy, but a plus RF with his power is still a totally reasonable starter if that can be actualized.
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I am pretty sure both Mayer and Anthony will burn their rookie eligibility - so removing them from the field I think is fair.
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White was the one guy I saw a writeup on the Athletic or ESPN ... from Law's others to watch outside the top 100:
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NIL is part of it. The bigger part of it was the contraction of the short season leagues by MLB. Ideally you'd take some these high school bats and just send them to Lowell to get their feet wet. But that option is gone now and it's either the complex league or Salem, which is a tough place to enter cold. And in the Sox' case specifically - if the team really is going to lean more into Statcast and away from in person scouting, then high school is where that will be felt the most. The Red Sox new scouting paradigm will also be challenged on the international front - their international scouts are the reasons for almost all of the org's pitching the last few years.
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see if they go the full 10 rounds (where the bonus pool comes from) without a single high school player draftee
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
sk7326 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
for a good reliever possibly - especially given his age. All it takes is one club to still like him a lot. But it does point to imo that there are a decent number of guys with some sort of value (Romero, Bleis, Cespedes, Sandlin) the team could likely put into a buyer's trade without a ton of remorse. -
Not surprising. It is just very hard for relievers in general - and 1-inning guys in particular, to pile up the bulk here.
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Chapman has been good, but he has more bWAR this season than the last 2 seasons combined. It is insane.
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If we assume the graduates are out of the prospect pool (Mayer, Anthony) ... what are we looking at Arias, Garcia, Perales, Witherspoon, Tolle ... in some order, that seems plausible
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My guess is Witherspoon slots in comfortably in the Top 5.
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As far as Godbout goes - from at least the usual suspects (Law, Longenhagen, McDaniel, Callis) it seems mostly confident he will be fine at 2B.
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He has a pretty big pitch arsenal - the staff will likely pare it down. One thing about Bailey's aversion to 4-seamers is that he for the most part does not have a ton of super live arms in the system. I think some of the approach is a response to the personnel we have.
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From what it looks like, he basically is another righty with that three quarters arm slot - like Tanner Houck or Justin Masterson. The challenge for him to remain starter is going to be whether he can throw his change up or splitter or some other pitch to keep lefties honest. We know the slider from that arm slot has an even bigger tendency to drift into lefty hitter's sweet spot.
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Law's writeup of Marcus Phillips, #98 on his board The draft day reaction to the pick ESPN had him rated #40. Scouts are divided - some see terrible arm action, some see a real four pitch mix with some development.
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More from Law on the draft day blog https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/live-blogs/mlb-draft-2025-live-updates-pick-by-pick-tracker/LxcVX3nybPKn/
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ESPN had Witherspooon #10 on their big board https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45688041/2025-mlb-draft-rankings-top-250-prospects-final-kade-anderson-liam-doyle-ethan-holliday Fastball: 55/60, Cutter: 50/60, Slider: 45/50, Curveball: 45/50, Changeup: 40/50, Command: 40/50
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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6454202/2025/07/01/mlb-draft-2025-top-100-prospects-holliday-doyle/ Law on Witherspoon, 9th on his big board. Good upside if the staff can turn his 5-pitch mix into a 3-best-pitches mix.
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Anything is possible - but the Brewers are like good and stuff. They will need some path to not backslide if they were to do that.
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MVP: Garrett Crochet - it's not really all that close. The big offseason acquisition who has been everything we could have wanted. Runner up: Ceddanne Rafaela - he has improved his swing decisions JUST enough. And the bat now combined with a truly elite CF means he is one of the best CFs in the sport. Will this hold up? Who knows - but he deserves his flowers. Honorable Mentions Aroldys Chapman - nothing about his career trajectory pointed to him being the best reliever in baseball Carlos Narvaez - an out of nowhere catcher solution Alex Bregman - the stint on the DL took him out of the running for more than this ... but he has been terrific. He has been a great leader by reports, but I don't want to weigh that too much in contrast to missing a significant block of time.
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Both Keith Law (Athletic) and Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) land on guys named Gavins in their final mocks Gavin Fien, 3B, Greak Oaks HS (CA) - had the best batted ball data and results in last summer's showcase circuit but had a meh season in high school this spring. (ESPN's pick) Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee - great batted ball and swing decision data, things the Sox are using more now. The Sox were super college-heavy last year and there is a lot of college depth this season.
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The statistics and metrics distinctions as being used in this discussion are mostly total rubbish.
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It might be true. The vibes are better for sure. But - at least for now - running into a couple of ho-ho-horrendous teams helped everybody get well.
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A lot of this is software as notin pointed out. Effectively cameras and computers are watching every ball hit - especially now with statcast at all the stadiums. The defensive stats now are much better than the old fielding percentage days, simply because there is better data going in. I mean, consider fielding percentage. If we replaced a Red Sox outfielder with a paint bucket - and just left it there. If 1 fly ball landed in the bucket, the fielding pct of 1.000 would be amazing. But we can't say the paint bucket is a good substitute to like, a person. We just have vastly better information on players getting to the ball - which is really what defensive value is for the most part, no? As far as being skeptical - any be-all stat without context deserves skepticism. Is UZR better than defensive runs saved or outs above average? I have opinions, but the real answer is that all of them together give good information. I mean, we accept that batting average, slugging, on-base all provide incomplete pictures of hitting ... but in combination it's not too shabby.
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A lot of his analysis has conflated statistical inference and data analysis as "guess work" which honestly veers too far into Carl Everett Dinosaur Theory for me.
