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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    Entering 2016 (which is the benchmark here) There was no Benintendi yet Hanley Ramirez was one of the worst regulars in the league the year before Bradley was promising Rotation was interesting. But the team was coming off of two losing seasons, so the burden of proof was higher. 2013 - at least for me was a case of a bunch of good players who had been good - just needing to get healthy or return to form. Lester had a bad 2012 but there was reason to believe it was an outlier ... and it was. John Lackey was coming off of TJS, so there was risk - but there was a good pitcher there. Buchholz ditto. Dempster I expected Pivetta-esque performance. For me, I looked at the 2011 team - and the major reason for the collapse was injuries. 2012 collapsed because of injuries - the bad vibes was a bonus. If the group could only stay healthy, they were going to be pretty good.
  2. sk7326
    2016 because I trusted the good players less. That said ALL of them (and I'll include 2002 who was a good team too) were teams that looked pretty solid on paper. The 2023 team was betting on the third wild card position for any sort of positivity.
  3. sk7326
    Firing vs resigning is really a matter of corporatespeak now - it's always reported as parting ways. Ultimately Epstein was the only guy (and I'm not even sure there) whose departure ownership was not okay with happening.
  4. sk7326
    Epstein also sort of left in 2006.
  5. sk7326
    I will disagree about 2013. Going from Bobby V to a functional human being as manger combined with simply our good players staying healthy I thought put the roster at least on the Wild Card map ... the free agents we brought in all worked out, but you look at the caliber of returning players on the 2013 team compared to 2021 and it's not trivial. Injuries and unexpected performance are common reasons for things to happen or not happen - but we all know that. All a GM can do is put out a product where the median outcomes set the team up for success. Now, what is funny is that I am optimistic about the future - particularly with the young position players in the system and the future roster. What Bloom did might very well bear fruit. But the team - the bleeping Boston Red Sox - did not have to wander through a hopeless malaise either in the interim. We don't have to imagine the world where the Red Sox could turn over positions on the fly - it happened between 2004 and 2007.
  6. sk7326
    I think the trade in division hesitation is purely PR ... but it does seem to cause problems.
  7. sk7326
    Well, first - it's baseball. Your superpowers to build a champion are inherently limited. But every single season between 2002 and, honestly 2019 - the Red Sox entered the season with at least a semi-realistic contender (a realistic path to 90 wins) on its hands ... you know "if we are healthy and a couple of breaks go our way". 2021 came out of nowhere and the seasons since were the first seasons under Henry's ownership where the team did not have a plausible road to a 90 win season.
  8. sk7326
    Oh neither am I. But when you get vibes based commentary and pooh poohing of analytics like some of the carnival barkers like that, you're just not following your industry.
  9. sk7326
    We are almost certainly more educated about the industry than Felger and Mazz are.
  10. sk7326
    To a degree. I mean Theo did the same when he was here. This doesn't mean that the manager did not have input before hiring. But arguably the manager's biggest job is making the coaching staff work.
  11. sk7326
    I think you need an above average glove. The team went in 2022 from a fairly good up the middle defense to the saddest of trombones.
  12. sk7326
    Looking at the tiers in Passan's Free agency column, at least where my head is at pitching wise I assume Yamamoto goes to the Mets, but yes I'd be all for the Red Sox doing whatever it takes. All indicators are some version of good and 25 year olds just don't hit the market anymore. Snell is ceiling with durability questions. I do kind of like Montgomery better. Yariel Rodriguez' underlying stuff is fascinating and again a 26 year old FA has to be taken seriously - but unproven in MLB and can he start? Lucas Giolito is a good upside play - probably one of the better ones among the pitchers. I'd be disappointed if the team did not end up with at least 2 starters, maybe 3.
  13. sk7326
    The top 3 starters in particular had solid FIP/ERA gaps. Rodriguez in particular got very little help from the defense. In 2023, there was basically nothing reliable - the closest was Bello and he was more "promising" than anything.
  14. sk7326
    Heck, I'd even settle for 2021 rotation where the starters were solid and the mid-back of the rotation could soak up innings.
  15. sk7326
    Yeah - he gives more salary relief. Now, you can't trade for him unless you are willing to give him a $500M deal. But ... if I were Breslow and gang, I would kick the tires on it.
  16. sk7326
    Offer Garver something like 2/20 and let it be a Teel-Graver Now in theory you'd wonder what Graver can be with more PAs given being a 2 win player now is - but he has never had that workload and I have to assume other teams are smarter on this than me.
  17. sk7326
    Honestly, Graver probably remains attractive independent of the Teel question. They are a platoon match - and obviously Graver hits righties enough to be able to handle a closer to 50-50 jobshare. If Teel gets the call, having Graver allows the team to phase Teel in. Wong would be the guy sacrificed in this case.
  18. sk7326
    Yes. Verdugo is a plus asset at the price and contract. Now if he could help bring some solid controllable pitching - that would be a different deal.
  19. sk7326
    Also the $14 is a projection. After all, he got cut. It is certainly possible he gets significantly less than $14M as a base salary.
  20. sk7326
    That makes sense to me. I might subsitute Merrifield with Anderson on a prove-it deal. I wouldn't call myself bullish on either player - but I would not be surprised if Anderson bounced back some. He was arguably the worst regular in the league last year which seems flukish to me. Yamamoto is my top target - even with a bit more risk, 25 year olds are not hitting the open market. I would be surprised if Nola did not return to Philadelphia though it's certainly possible. I mean a 7/200 meal for Yamamoto means he is still just 32 at the end of it.
  21. sk7326
    Fair enough. I use OBP because it is the much more important side of the OPS equation ... and there is almost no combination of defense and power where a sub .300 OBP guy is a big league corner. Either way, he is the consummate 4A player.
  22. sk7326
    For me, Yamamoto is the top pitching option if he gets posted ... the posting fee will be bananas, but the player's contract will be almost certainly a bargain. There is definitely a lower floor, but you are getting a 25 year old starter with Top 3 rotation upside at a minimum. Tim Anderson on a prove-it deal might make sense for 2B.
  23. sk7326
    Dalbec did not have an OBP above .300 in any month before August. Basically his uptick coincided with not having to face righties anymore. And of course, being this miserable against right-handed pitchers means you can't be a big league starter.
  24. sk7326
    Yeah - I mean Dalbec really took off at the end of 2021 after he got a high level platoon partner - and I don't think the plan to see if he could hit righties was necessarily terrible, but the evidence was against it. He might still be able to stick in the league as the smaller half of a platoon, but that's about it.
  25. sk7326
    I remember Chris Young as an All-Ivy Center for Princeton basketball.
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