sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Yeah. Ramirez and Sandoval were near the top of most of the FA Rankings ... Sandoval's utter collapse in particular was hard to predict. I was worried it would not be a good value, but I thought he would be a functional big leaguer.
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I think with Ben he was told "go spend" by management and ended up doing so in a wretched FA year.
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In the past they've usually been able to manage the steps back some ... and add kids to the moving train successfully. Now the Dodgers have shown that being able to have both ... the fertile farm system along with the "always be chasin" attitude at the big league level. The Red Sox since Theo left have not been able to strike that balance.
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I think they will - well not go "all-in" on the kids, but everything they do position player wise will be short term in such a way as for the kids to be able to take jobs. But I am still somewhat optimistic the team will add significant pitching just because they have to. And yeah, I think signing them is more sensible than trading given where the franchise is.
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You have to worried there, I agree. But it also looks like Montgomery, Snell and other starters in that tier are waiting for Yamamoto to go. Now, clearly some pitchers have taken the money and been happy. But I do think there is a Yamamoto-driven bottleneck here.
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The pitching was horrendous. But a .400 win pct over 60 games is not historically anything
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Of course. They are all legit. But it is fair to take the results of that season WAY less seriously than other seasons - particularly when it comes to last place finishes and so on.
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Pretty much. Bull Durham is very very good - I always thought it had the rhythms of what it must be like to actually play down. (with some comic effect of course) I think Shelton (the director) played minor league ball and it shows.
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If they add a couple of premium arms, the equation changes. But the case for this team being back will be the young position players blossoming, so we'll see there.
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I think they were - but the ceiling is considerably less than the situation the decade before. After all, the 2015 team had Bogaerts and Mookie as a combined 10 wins of player. There were more green shoots. Now, 2024 might have some green shoots - but we'll see. I tend to throw 2020 out the window for sample size reasons. 2022 I think injuries were significant, though really the difference between 76 and 88 wins. The players we are dreaming on now are just not as good as the 2012-2015 editions.
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I do think there IS a lesson there - in that the Rangers went and got good players when they were available, and did not time it. Like the Red Sox decided - whether it be ownership or the baseball ops - to sign the top rated UFAs in two seasons where the top of the class just wasn't particularly good. (Crawford in 2011, Ramirez/Sandoval in 2015) Those were seasons you'd like to sit out - but they were also the seasons that the Red Sox decided "we must go shopping NOW".
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Get the damn pitchers. I think Story, a functional 2B and their outfield options, the defense should be at least average ... just a little bit of run prevention could go a long way.
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I think the team cannot avoid bringing in pitching from the outside because they simply don't have any. They are a slightly above average payroll team - so there is budget room. I mean last year's club with any sort of reliable run prevention, would have likely been in the wild card soup. So I don't think the pathway is that long. Put another way, if we add some decent pitching and upgrade out defense from "actively harmful" to "fine" - we should be in the postseason mix, even if it is the wildcard kind. Now, I do think the team should be hesitant to make a ton of long term commitments to position players. First, it's not a very good group of position players now that Ohtani is off the market. Second, I do want to give runway for the kids we do have to take positions.
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In terms of wins, yes - in terms of hope, less so. I mean 2012 was a disappointment because of injuries, underperformance, and Bobby V's existence. 2013 was a bit of a fluke, though a lot of it came from the Red Sox getting good seasons from their actual stars. Victorino was a miracle, but the rest of it was just folks being healthy. And health was important in the 2014 situation. 2015 included the addition of two huge free agents who were both awful. There were mistakes, and struggles but the team was pretty proactive and each of those seasons had some reasonable ex ante hope. The issue with 2022-23 in particular is the lack of visible ceiling for the ballclub.
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Such is life in acquiring pitching. I mean David Price was one of the most durable pitchers in the majors - until he wasn't. All you can do is get the medical people's sign off and hope.
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I think so ... not to give them too much credit.
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There is certainly risk - but less than I think is being reported. For me the big thing is that you just don't get swings at 25 year old FAs that often. And I think the likelihood of completely crapping out relative to his AAV is not all that high.
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How have the Red Sox fared in past free agent bidding wars?
sk7326 replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The only thing I'll offer is most autopsies of free agent shopping will look like this ... it's a sucker's game often, but it's also what we have -
Honestly, this is a place I'd be willing to offer Tim Anderson a 1/10 sort of thing.
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Yamamoto and Snell are the clear top 2 for sure. Snell one wishes just pitched more innings or he'd be an easy #1. Montgomery and Imanaga are similar in that they are 30 year olds who had their best seasons most recently. But the level of competition matters. Imanaga might end up being a better value than Montgomery from a $$/WAR perspective. But Montgomery is the slightly safer bet imo.
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Houck in particular would be really interesting.
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I do too - that said, I think his role is pretty easy to replace.
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Good: Devers (and will get better), Whitlock (if he just pitches out of the bullpen), Martin (though a regression candidate) Meh: Story (underwater so far, but won't take much to be neutral), Jansen (while I am philosophically against spending lots of money on a 1-inning closer, Jansen has been fine) Bad: Yoshida (though if his bat develops, it won't be too bad) Ugly: Sale (we knew the arm was wobbly when they re-upped him, and of course he has been victim to every issue this side of Bubonic Plague - but if he is a 3 win pitcher this year, it becomes more tolerable)
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Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
sk7326 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think this is overcomplicating things. Boston is a big market with fans who support it - and put more $$ into that than any other fans in the game. They want the Red Sox to act like a big market team. The team was slightly above league average spend this year - and have been particularly cheap in the area that the team is most deficient (pitching). Now there is plenty of time in this FA season - and still a lot of good pitchers left, so this can all change. But it is 3 seasons in a row, the team has not been pro-active in improving the team. Fans - given the Red Sox resources (basically as good as anybody not named the Dodgers), this team should always be in the mix, and right now this would be the 2nd straight season where that is not the case. -
Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
sk7326 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I actually do think he believes that - he just hates participating in a seller's market.