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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    Sure, I realize the probability is calculated after the fact. But it does show that the Dodgers went quickly from a 42% chance to a 73% chance, and how crucial those at-bats were to the outcome of the game.
  2. Bellhorn04
    This little cliff is no match for Bloom.
  3. Bellhorn04
    Something like starting Denny Galehouse in the playoff game, huh?
  4. Bellhorn04
    Now that is a great sounding team name.
  5. Bellhorn04
    He must have. And I think this highlights one of the things that analytics can't capture. Cash had to make a gut decision on which history to rely on.
  6. Bellhorn04
    You should check out Alex Speier's tweets from the game. He had some in-game analytics on Snell, swing-and-miss rate and exit velocity stuff, indicating that Snell was really having an extraordinarily game. In spite of which, Speier said that pulling Snell was defensible. But he thought that replacing him with Anderson did not make sense.
  7. Bellhorn04
    Over Stock.
  8. Bellhorn04
    In this particular situation, he went with a struggling reliever over his ace starter who was at only 73 pitches, had terrific stuff and had thus far mowed down the hitters who were due up. It seems like a case of analytics defying sense.
  9. Bellhorn04
    His numbers in his 6 previous appearances were somewhat indicative.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Baseball-Reference shows Win Probability, which I can wrap my head around a lot better. When Cash pulled Snell, the Dodgers had a 42% chance of winning. Mookie's double: increased to 56%. Wild pitch, run scores: increased to 65%. Seager's grounder, run scores: increased to 73%. So there was a hefty 31% change on those two at-bats.
  11. Bellhorn04
    Win expectancy is an extremely difficult concept for me to wrap my head around. Would you be able to do a little analysis of it as it pertains to this situation?
  12. Bellhorn04
    I just read that Anderson said after the game he was fatigued from the heavy postseason workload. That makes the decision look even worse.
  13. Bellhorn04
    Bob Stanley, the most tragic figure in Red Sox history, in my books at least.
  14. Bellhorn04
    Exactly what came to my mind.
  15. Bellhorn04
    "If he didn't" just isn't valid.
  16. Bellhorn04
    "If he doesn't have that WP" is kind of like that joke, "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?"
  17. Bellhorn04
    Pretty sure those numbers are regular season only, and don't include the 5 World Series PA's which resulted in 3 K's, a groundout and a walk. Not really scary enough numbers or a large enough sample to influence the move, IMHO.
  18. Bellhorn04
    Cash said it was the pre-game plan not to let him face the lineup a third time, did he not?
  19. Bellhorn04
    The hit by Posada may have been a flare - the issue is that it was the 4th hit in a row - and it came after a ROCKET by Matsui.
  20. Bellhorn04
    That's true, but Anderson had been struggling badly, giving up runs in 6 straight appearances, probably showing signs of being worn down. You wonder why Cash gave so little weight to that side of it.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Pedro gave the 'heavenward thank you' as he was coming off the mound after the 7th. He thought he was done. He said so later.
  22. Bellhorn04
    Wow, you're more old school than I realized!
  23. Bellhorn04
    Could be either, or some of both, right? A veritable spectrum of possibilities.
  24. Bellhorn04
    To be fair, in Game 2 of this World Series, Snell was also cruising for 4.2 innings, and then failed to retire any of the next 4 hitters. Pitchers can seem to be cruising sometimes and suddenly lose it. I don't envy managers having to make those decisions.
  25. Bellhorn04
    And Malcolm Butler's name actually appears twice on the list of questionable Super Bowl decisions...
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