And your closer has given up 3 devastating home runs in the last 5 postseasons (one of which was survived by the Cubs).
No other closer in history has done anything like this.
That's not the only reason we don't have enough starters.
The Yankees are in much the same situation with Kluber and Taillon.
They just have a lot more depth than we do.
If he's either going to be zero or 3+, then a projection of 1.6-1.8 makes sense. Maybe he gives you half a season pitching like a 3+.
Porcello is much more likely to pitch a whole season.
It's all guesswork, needless to say.
The risk is that the Yankees count on Taillon to be their #2 starter and he pitches poorly or has health issues. It could cost them that way.
Both the Yankees and Red Sox rotations are loaded with risky propositions.