Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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Yes, assuming the 2023 Sox have a legit shot at the playoffs, keeping Paxton and trading Paxton are both risky. And I agree with the last part 100%.
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It can be both.
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You're the most pessimistic person about injuries I've ever met.
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You're sure that McGuire outplayed Vaz defensively? Based on what?
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2023 MLB Draft
Bellhorn04 replied to sk7326's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
It never went away, so it's not really a comeback. -
So why were we better in 2021 than 2019? I think chalking it up as a fluke is weak.
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Get Morpheus on here and we'll talk.
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I agree, but that's not the specific argument that moon is making. He's trying to apply this principle to the 2019 team. That was a team that looked like a 100-win team on paper. A whole bunch of bad s*** happened, is the simplest explanation for why that team only won 84 games.
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The most frightening scenario of all is that you trade him now and he stays healthy and pitching well the rest of the year (which would only not hurt if the Red Sox finish well out of the playoffs and the loss of Paxton makes no difference). That's Captain Obvious stuff, but it can't be denied.
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I would definitely need to see some empirical evidence before I make any judgment. I think the 2019 Red Sox are a decent test case. I will continue to dispute that the biggest problem of that team was the lack of farm infusion. There's no way that accounts for the biggest part of a 24-game drop. Then there's the question of how the 2021 team succeeded after a further 2 years of no farm help. It should have gotten even worse. There are just too many factors involved that keep it from being simple.
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Sure, it would make sense if we KNEW he was going to get injured soon, or if we KNEW it wouldn't cost us making the playoffs. Just need a good crystal ball and we're all set.
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And where did the 1.5 per year number come from again? You read it somewhere once?
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So moon, hopefully this doesn't happen, but since you're a man who likes to indulge in hypotheticals, what if the 2023 team wins 83 games or less, a worse record than 2019 or 2021, in spite of the farm infusion? How would you fit that into your thesis?
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It would have been a better team with 2023 Bello and Duran, sure. And it would have been so much better if so many players didn't underperform expectations. It was a stacked team on paper. It was the 2018 team redux, and it wasn't an old team. You're the first person to say the real problem was the lack of good rookies.
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Yeah, that is one unexciting rumor.
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The 2019 team was a great team on paper to start the season. It's simply untrue that the team sucked because of a lack of farm infusion.
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Illinois explanation is the only possibility, I would say. I agree with your take, though.
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Illinois explained the reasoning above.
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You're right.
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I'm off to Cape Breton for a few days with the wife. Go Sox.
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A somewhat encouraging report.
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About the only thing to grumble about at this point is Eovaldi/Kluber.
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With any luck there's another mopup job and more Talksox acclaim awaiting him somewhere down the road.
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7/18 Sox @ Oakland
Bellhorn04 replied to Maxbialystock's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
I see what you're doing there. -
7/18 Sox @ Oakland
Bellhorn04 replied to Maxbialystock's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
But if you accept that OBP is the truest measure of success, Ted Williams only failed 52% of the time.
