Bard was a freak case. He said he wanted to be a starter so they let him give it a shot. No one could foresee that he was going to become a victim of an extremely rare malady like Steve Blass Disease.
It's that 12.5 million buyout that makes Lee's contract extra scary. If he gets injured you could end up paying him 37.5 million for a year or less. From everything I've read that 12.5 million is guaranteed money. He either gets that or he gets a second year at 25 million if he reaches 200 innings and his option vests.
I like Cliff Lee too. But if the Sox were unwilling to give Shields 75 million for 4 years, I can't see them giving up a prospect and 37.5-50 million for one or two years of Lee.
Yes, that and $155 million. I'm kidding about that. But the presence of Theo and Hoyer and Dempster and the idea of helping the Cubs break their 100 year + drought obviously appealed to Jon. This was a huge decision in his life and he treated it as such.
The reported facts certainly indicate that Lester was willing to return to Boston. He told the Giants he had narrowed his choice to the Cubs and the Sox. Apparently the Giants had been preparing an offer that was equal to the Cubs offer or more.
Let's have a reality check on the ALE - it ain't what it used to be.
Last year the other 4 teams in the ALE averaged 4.13 runs per game. League average was 4.18.
There's so much stuff that happens in baseball that completely defies logic. Look at Oakland last year. On July 31 they were 66-41. In August and September, after acquiring Lester and the two guys from the Cubs, they went 22-33. Unfathomable.
Preseason prognostications always bring out the philosopher in me. What were the preseason odds on SF and KC last year? What were the odds on the Red Sox in 2013? I wish somebody would keep track of the preseason calls and compare them to the actual results. But nobody does it because it would make the whole concept of preseason picks look foolish. It would also be pretty tedious.
Nobody knows s***, and your guess is as good as mine.
Free agency changed everything, no doubt. And it was what the players wanted all along. Human nature doesn't change over time, IMO, just environment changes.