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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    You believe that choking is real, though, right?
  2. Bellhorn04
    You're concerned about his interleague numbers, though, right?
  3. Bellhorn04
    Fred, please stop bringing up what happened on other boards here. Several people have already said they don't want to hear about it.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Here's an example of where stats can be of little help: what impact would moving to Boston have on Cole Hamels's numbers? How much does that 4.54 ERA against AL teams mean? Would Hamels be 'uncomfortable' in Boston?
  5. Bellhorn04
    Exactly - and that's what makes them clutch. It's the guys who do things differently in those situations, because their heart rates have accelerated way above normal etc., that aren't clutch.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Again I perish on the rocks of small samples.
  7. Bellhorn04
    I mostly agree. As you pointed out earlier, the 8th inning guy will often be the one who has to get through the heart of the order, so in those cases he has the tougher assignment. The only thing I would point out is that all other things being equal, the leverage in the 9th inning is a bit highet than the leverage in the 8th.
  8. Bellhorn04
    Hendu Henderson? Reg season OPS .756 Postseason OPS .946
  9. Bellhorn04
    It also looks like we're going to be killer in one-run games this year.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Clutch for pitchers = Curt Schilling. My methodology is admittedly very primitive. All I do is compare postseason to regular season. I'd like to know more about how regular season 'clutch situations' are determined. Is there any weight given to the importance of the game? If clutch/not clutch is a myth, how do we explain Ortiz's postseason numbers vs. Bagwell's? Small sample for Bagwell, I suppose.
  11. Bellhorn04
    Hey, now some of those really were small samples. Here's what I think: it's impossible to be a clutch hitter all the time. Pitchers have the advantage and major league pitchers are really really good. All I'm contending is that Ortiz is more clutch than average. And Bagwell and Swisher were less clutch than average.
  12. Bellhorn04
    There you go. Henry signs Bill James's cheques and yet he gives a plaque for clutch hitting. Case closed, I'd say.
  13. Bellhorn04
    I think a lot of David Ortiz's numbers do bear out that he's been a clutch hitter over his career. Starting with his career postseason OPS of .962, which is higher than his regular season OPS of .926. That's not a big difference, obviously. But when you take into account the higher leverage of the games, and the higher overall caliber of the opposing pitching, I think I could come up with a formula that makes the difference a lot bigger. Then you have his absurd World Series line of 455/576/795 = 1.372 OPS.
  14. Bellhorn04
    Are postseason numbers included in these analyses?
  15. Bellhorn04
    Red Sox sweep, 2-1 and 1-0. So much for the big upgrades on offense!
  16. Bellhorn04
    With your belief that 'being miserable' seeps into performance, we are at least in full agreement on the point that state of mind factors can have a major impact on how a guy plays.
  17. Bellhorn04
    I understand. All I'm saying is, if a guy's game can be that damaged by being uncomfortable where he's playing -obviously a mental issue- I don't think it's a great stretch to also believe that some guys will be more affected than others by pressure situations. Just my opinion.
  18. Bellhorn04
    Why? They're both external pressures that affect you psychologically, not physically.
  19. Bellhorn04
    I don't think the two things are all that dissimilar. You believe that outside influences affected him mentally and directly impacted his performance. I don't see a big leap to believing that pressure situations and the fear of failing in them can directly impact a player's performance.
  20. Bellhorn04
    It's hard to explain, yes, but it seems to be that certain players are not 'comfortable' in certain environments. I think it's also quite reasonable to believe that certain players are less 'comfortable' than others in certain game situations.
  21. Bellhorn04
    So how do we explain things like Carl Crawford's inability to play in Boston? Or Daniel Bard losing the ability to throw the ball over the plate? The human psyche is a complex thing.
  22. Bellhorn04
    To me the whole clutch/choke thing falls into the area of intangibles, like 'a catcher who calls a good game makes a big difference' or 'a good manager makes a big difference.' These have also proven to be extremely difficult assertions to quantify.
  23. Bellhorn04
    All points taken.
  24. Bellhorn04
    So Kimmi, if there is no proof, there is also no disproof, and can we really make positive assertions like 'Those players who we often consider to be clutch aren't really clutch.'?
  25. Bellhorn04
    My beef is that when you do find what seems to be a genuine example of someone who has underperformed in 'the clutch', it gets thrown out on the grounds of small sample sizes. My preference is to use postseason games vs. regular season games, because it's very simple, for one thing. So I try to use Bagwell and Swisher, who have huge gaps in postseason vs. regular season numbers, and it gets tossed on the 'small sample size' argument. Well, okay, yes, postseason samples are small, comparatively speaking, but how will we ever have a big enough sample? That's when the old schooler in me understands some of the frustration with the stat people.
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