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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    Honest Ben Cherington went on record to say he wanted CC.
  2. Bellhorn04
    Absolutely. And now we have a new storyline on Koji, with $18 million invested in him.
  3. Bellhorn04
    Setting aside Papelbon entirely here, you're correct that the Sox threw away quite a bit of money on Jenks, Hanrahan and Bailey for next to nothing (except Brock Holt). The Jenks signing in particular was a disaster. $12 million minus $1 million they eventually recovered in a settlement I believe.
  4. Bellhorn04
    The Phillies have been conducting themselves like idiots the last few years though. They should have traded Cliff Lee before this too. Now they're hanging onto Hamels.
  5. Bellhorn04
    Billy Beane is still without a title. He does have the honor of being the only GM to have been played by Brad Pitt in a movie, though.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Some of the statistical analysis helped, no doubt. But having one of the highest payrolls and being able to acquire guys like Schilling and Foulke to complement the big talent already in place sure did too.
  7. Bellhorn04
    Yes, 2015, my bad.
  8. Bellhorn04
    No matter how much information you have at your disposal, the performance of some players will be extremely difficult to predict, regardless of injuries. No one could have predicted how bad Crawford would be in 2011, and no one can exactly explain it, either. Some guys are just extremely erratic - like Buchholz and Masterson - and no one is sure exactly why. Some guys 'lose it' and then get it back, like Lester - possibly because of an adjustment in mechanics. I would love to see someone here try to predict the final 2015 numbers for our current rotation. If your numbers are way off because of injury, you get a complete pass, of course.
  9. Bellhorn04
    UN, you said 'over a larger sample, advanced statistics can pretty accurately predict what a player will do.' Then you said 'in the end, there's just no foolproof way to accurately predict what a player(s) is (are) going to do in the future.' ???
  10. Bellhorn04
    It's a good question. With some exceptions, the future performance of baseball players remains very difficult to predict. Carl Crawford's stats going into 2011 didn't justify $142 million, but they sure made him look like a premier all-around player.
  11. Bellhorn04
    WAR is more useful for me now, I guess, because I don't watch nearly as many games as I used to.
  12. Bellhorn04
    Also, the Lackey signing doesn't look quite so bad anymore.
  13. Bellhorn04
    To me Jeter is actually another good example of the usefulness of WAR. He took a beating in recent years for his defense but his WAR supports his total value because his offense was so much higher than an average SS's, and he was so durable etc.
  14. Bellhorn04
    Sometimes even one-sided games turn on one piece of luck. The one play might be a grand slam-4 runs at once. Or a bunch of runs might come in after the one play. It's just the way baseball is. It's a different game.
  15. Bellhorn04
    A player like Pedey is one reason I like looking at WAR to see what a player really contributed in total.
  16. Bellhorn04
    Nah, we still woulda won that series, but in 7 games. Plenty of teams have come from 2-0 down. Seriously, you could also say we were very lucky in 2004 and 2007 to come from 3-0 and 3-1 ALCS deficits. So you could say we're incredibly lucky to have 3 titles. If that's how you to choose to look at it. Or you could say we should have won in 1975, 1978, 1986, 2003 and 2008.
  17. Bellhorn04
    One thing I would also point out is that several World Series teams over the past decade or so have had closers who had great seasons or great postseasons virtually out of nowhere.
  18. Bellhorn04
    He signed the extension in July/13. He finished 7th in 2013 MVP voting. How is that being paid on reputation? He's being paid on past performance, yes, but which players aren't?
  19. Bellhorn04
    Talk of trading Pedroia doesn't seem to be paying much attention to his huge defensive value, especially considering that we now have a bunch of groundball pitchers.
  20. Bellhorn04
    His new contract was not a pay cut, but at $14.17 million AAV, it was definitely a below-market contract.
  21. Bellhorn04
    For better or worse, Benny Boy is really putting himself on the line with the pitching staff he has assembled.
  22. Bellhorn04
    No kidding. Hopefully they are.
  23. Bellhorn04
    In other speculation, Alex Speier suggests that the size of the Scherzer deal takes the Red Sox out of next year's free agent market for pitchers. http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/21/max-scherzer-deal-likely-takes-red-sox-out-next-year-free-agent-market/PYwynMmOEst7IA5rA6OvtO/story.html?event=event25*
  24. Bellhorn04
    The source might be a little dubious, I don't know. http://baseballhotcorner.com/red-sox-prepared-make-move-jordan-zimmermann/
  25. Bellhorn04
    Nice post, Fred. I especially like the terms 'allies' and antagonists'.
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