Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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I think a realistic hope for Betts is that he's a 4-5 WAR player, roughly equivalent to Ellsbury level productivity - hopefully more consistent.
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You're very much in the minority about Betts. He tore up both AA and AAA before an impressive stint with the big team. His bat speed and his quickness are the real deal. Obviously it's no sure thing yet, but this kid is an exceptional prospect. Trading for Hamels is a double-pay, because you have to lay out $110 million, plus prospects. And we don't know how well he'd transition to the AL. His interleague numbers against AL teams are not good.
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I think trading Betts for Hamels is just about the worst idea possible. There are a lot of pitchers available. Betts is staying. The only guy worth trading him for was Stanton.
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It looks like the Marlins are pretty serious about keeping him around, for a while at least.
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When the Marlins signed Reyes, the contract was heavily backloaded, paying him only 10 million a year the first 2 years. Then they traded him after one year. I would expect to see some backloading with Stanton's contract as well.
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That makes sense, as a generality. But if we're going to apply this to Webster or another starting pitcher, all we have to do is look at the box scores for the games pitched.
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I'd like to see the reasoning behind why September numbers don't mean anything. I can see it if it's garbage games where both teams are out of it. I can see it if some September callup gets hot for a couple of weeks. But I can't see how it applies to a starting pitcher who's trying to stay in the big leagues. Anyway you and others could certainly be right that he's better suited to be a reliever.
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With one caveat - some players seem to do extraordinarily well in the walk year! Victor Martinez being a notable fresh example.
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Should the Red Sox move Mike Napoli along?
Bellhorn04 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Well, I'm getting a little confused here I guess. I thought the idea of taking Howard with Hamels was that it would reduce the prospect haul wanted by the Phillies. If they're not getting much salary relief on Howard they're still going to want the prospects. -
Should the Red Sox move Mike Napoli along?
Bellhorn04 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
There's a $10 million buyout on Howard's 2017 option. A team acquiring him is either on the hook for $60 million for 2 years, or $73 million for 3 years. -
Well, we're starting to hear some noise now at least.
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The A's are a small market team who had a chance to go for a title. It failed dismally, but I don't think it was a bad move. It's not like they gave up a couple of top prospects. They gave up a guy who they only had under contract for 1.3 years, and a guy who nobody seems very sure how good he actually is.
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Should the Red Sox move Mike Napoli along?
Bellhorn04 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
That raises the grim prospect of trading Napoli and finding Craig's bat is as bad as it looked last year. -
I don't see that. The A's were going for it this year, and they would only have Cespedes one more year.
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What I'm hearing is that Headley could get something like 4 years for 48 million.
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It might be just Kool-Aid, but he did finish well last year. In September he gave up 5 walks in 24 innings.
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Should the Red Sox move Mike Napoli along?
Bellhorn04 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The problem with the idea is what I bolded. I'm pretty sure the Red Sox are going to make the kind of moves that at least give them a chance on paper to be a playoff team. They're not going to send a message that they're already looking beyond 2015. I'm taking the PR component into account. -
No offence, but that'd be crazy. Lincecum has been very bad for 3 consecutive seasons. He had a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP last year. And SF has a pitcher-friendly park. On top of that, he makes $18 million next year.
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Ryan Howard is just about done.
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Miller had a great season, especially after being traded, but $40 million for a reliever with 1 career save seems insane to me.
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I loved those late 70's teams especially. But the thing that was crushing was never being able to win it all, of course. The new ownership has delivered championships. The championships completed me as a Sox fan. The loyalty was finally rewarded. That's why I'm still loyal to them. 700hitter, are you a Red Sox season ticket holder? Season ticket holders fall into a special category for me. They are the real financial supporters of the team.
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I think everybody and their dog knows the Sox have to acquire 2 good starters for 2015.
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The question is, can a team like the Marlins afford to break the bank for one player? Their total payroll for 2014 was less than $50 million. Stanton will be looking for around $30 million per, which means he'll be taking up about half the annual payroll. It leaves them little money to spend anywhere else.
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I think what they're doing is two things: 1) Confirming that there's no way they can meet his demands; 2) The PR thing you're suggesting. It's the only thing they can do, really. Things are setting up for him to be traded by this year's deadline.
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We shouldn't really have to argue as much as we do about who's a #1 or a #2 etc. If the guy is in the top 20% statistically he's a #1. The next 20% are #2's etc.
