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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    Maybe now Dave will get a chance to show if he can dig his way out of it, which he didn't get with the Sox.
  2. Bellhorn04
    notin is off and running this morning!
  3. Bellhorn04
    Close, Sherlock, it does in fact mean the hitting isn't as good as the raw numbers, and the pitching is better than the raw numbers. 😜
  4. Bellhorn04
    The Sox were 9th in runs scored this year, but they also play half their games in one of the best hitters' parks, so that has to be downgraded a bit. We were clearly just marginally above average in run production. The OPS+ numbers look nice, but somehow the whole was less than the sum of the parts. Was that because of the hitting with RISP? I'm sure that was part of it, but I think it also had to do with being #3 in baseball in Ks.
  5. Bellhorn04
    As I posted earlier in this thread: 2024 Offensive Runs Above Replacement: Duran 32.8 Devers 22.5 (on IL at end of year) O'Neill 16.0 (free agent) Refsnyder 9.4 Abreu 8.4 Wong 5.5 Yoshida 4.6 Hamilton 3.4 Casas 3.0 Story 0.1 Duran, Devers and O'Neill accounted for a huge share of the offense. And the 2 hitters we're talking about removing are Duran (trading him for a pitcher) and O'Neill (free agent). Plus there are health concerns with Devers and Yoshida. Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic, but I think our offense is actually pretty thin before allowing for Anthony and Campbell. Grissom's career OPS+ is 81, BTW.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Is this a confirmed story? I thought the Yankees matched the Giants offer and that was what it took.
  7. Bellhorn04
    Is it better to know squat or to not know squat, BTW?
  8. Bellhorn04
    Taking on the Yankees is one thing, taking them and Crazy Steve on is simply a non-starter. I don't really blame Henry for sitting that one out!
  9. Bellhorn04
    Right, and they when they found out Teixeira preferred the Yankees, instead of upping the ante they tossed in the towel and got pissy about it. Damon was another case, although the rumor there was that Boras screwed them by not giving them a chance to up their bid.
  10. Bellhorn04
    So let's trade Duran, as some have suggested. O'Neill is a free agent, no idea if he'll be back or not. Devers had serious shoulder problems this year. Wouldn't be surprised if he needs surgery. Yoshida needs surgery. Anthony and Campbell better come in raking, huh?
  11. Bellhorn04
    Money is a weapon, basically. It's only useful if you hit the target with it. And if you don't know what you're doing, you can maim or kill yourself.
  12. Bellhorn04
    Just didn't know him as well as you do. Or thought he was capable of some adjustment. I certainly never thought we'd have a guy with a K/BB ratio twice as bad as Middlebrooks or Dalbec and believe he's capable of staying in the big leagues.
  13. Bellhorn04
    The idea that the Red Sox are going to outbid the Yankees and Mets for Soto is just not realistic. Even in the years when the Sox were big spenders they would never take on the Yankees in a bidding war.
  14. Bellhorn04
    "Consequences downstream" - delicately put, Nick. Like Price and Sale and smoke coming out of Henry's ears and we're gonna blow this up and go in a whole new direction type consequences...
  15. Bellhorn04
    Absolutely true. The idea that the Sox have a surplus of hitting is a misguided one.
  16. Bellhorn04
    The methodology in that listing is a bit odd. For example, Ohtani is on the list, and it shows his annual cost at $70 million, which is not the real AAV, and then there's no actual calculation of surplus value that I can see. It's actually opinion-based-on-some-numbers, I guess.
  17. Bellhorn04
    OPS-wise, yes. But his chase numbers are much worse than anyone could have imagined. I thought he might start taking some walks, but he went in the other direction and decided to take none whatsoever!
  18. Bellhorn04
    Anyone think the Dodgers will go with another bullpen game tonight? I don't see why they wouldn't, frankly.
  19. Bellhorn04
    Per TalkSox contributor Daniel Fox's just-posted article on the Red Sox Stats survey: It is impossible to be a successful big-league hitter with a 46% chase rate. To put things in perspective, that number is worse than Javier Báez in all but his absolute worst season. Towards the end of the season, pitchers realized they didn’t have to throw anything near the strike zone to Rafaela, and his chase rate ballooned to over 56% in September.
  20. Bellhorn04
    I am largely in agreement with all of this. Shocking how many folks would be willing to trade Duran for a pitcher when there are clearly other readily available ways to get one.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Craig is not really in charge and wants us to know that LOL https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/10/10/24266818/craig-breslow-is-not-in-charge-of-the-red-sox
  22. Bellhorn04
    The Os are good now but they're not going to stay that way without spending. Some of that spending will be *involuntary* i.e. arb raises - it's either that or lock 'em up contracts for their young stars.
  23. Bellhorn04
    Ceddanne ended up with 151 Ks and 15 BBs. His last BB was on August 9. If he is to succeed with this approach he would be breaking a paradigm. I don't think it's possible, personally. I don't think he survives as an MLB hitter.
  24. Bellhorn04
    The entire offense hit some kind of wall in September.
  25. Bellhorn04
    Yeah, good point. The graph I saw was probably a few years old. The Rays have the longest stretch of it going, from 2008 to now.
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