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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    From FanGraphs: Duran 2023 362 PA 15.9 Offensive RAR -3.2 Defensive RAR Duran 2024 735 PA 32.8 Offensive RAR 7.9 Defensive RAR Duran's jump in WAR from 2023 came from 2 things: 1) Played a full season 2) Vast improvement in defense His offensive value basically remained the same.
  2. Bellhorn04
    You were doing well until the last sentence. What long term struggles are the Yankees and Dodgers having?
  3. Bellhorn04
    So why stay under in 2021 after they got under in 2020? I'm suggesting that Henry's new outlook started back in 2019. In 2022 they went over, but only by $6 million.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Hugh, you're fine, and I agree with you much more often than disagree. I know I tend to sound a little edgy myself when I'm posting in the morning after my coffee. But I'm just throwing stuff out there to keep things interesting. 🙂
  5. Bellhorn04
    Hugh, they traded Betts and Price so they would be under in 2020.
  6. Bellhorn04
    The OP is absolutely advocating it if there's another team willing to make it happen. We argued about this for pages on the 2025 thread. My main argument against doing it is that we don't have enough offense that we can afford to give up Duran.
  7. Bellhorn04
    Not trying to be snarky when I say this, but it's pretty obvious that with a guy who just had an 8 WAR season after amassing about 2 WAR before that, and who is under control for 4 more years, their trade value is likely at its peak.
  8. Bellhorn04
    We can probably say the same about Tanner Houck. Should we trade him too?
  9. Bellhorn04
    OK, but identifying the exact peak doesn't really tell us much about the precise rate of decline. Can you tell us exactly how much speed Duran will lose over the next 5 years?
  10. Bellhorn04
    Hmmm, well, to some ears "ain't much" sure sounds like a colorful way of saying zero. Kind of like Clint Eastwood's line "Dyin' ain't much of a livin', boy." 😁
  11. Bellhorn04
    If we count 2020 as a season, they were under in 2020 and 2021. People tend to forget that because 2021 turned out good LOL
  12. Bellhorn04
    When he was with the Red Sox, did he trade one of our best players for an aging superstar? This part seems a little unfair to me.
  13. Bellhorn04
    Did they make him an offer or not?
  14. Bellhorn04
    A couple more points: 1) If 2024 was Duran's best season (very possible) it doesn't automatically mean he's going to go back to being a 1-2 WAR player and stay there. 2) Every other team is aware of the same possibility. Every other team has the same data and plenty of guys to analyze it.
  15. Bellhorn04
    No, that's not really the point. I'm questioning the scientific validity of the "speed goes early" statement. This is not about talent, it's strictly about the Point A to Point B part...
  16. Bellhorn04
    I think they valued him. But as with many other free agents in recent offseasons, they just weren't willing to pay what it took to sign the player. What's been especially frustrating is that many of these free agents signed very reasonable deals. We're not talking about the big splash signings. We're talking about tight, tight budgets for the third wealthiest team in the game.
  17. Bellhorn04
    "As we saw with Jacoby Ellsbury, speed is the first thing to go for baseball players." Ellsbury seems to be the automatic comp for Duran. I get it - Ellsbury played for us not long ago, he was an outfielder, he was really fast. But is it really true that speed goes early as a general scientific principle? Rickey Henderson led the majors in stolen bases at age 39. Lou Brock led the majors in stolen bases at age 35. Both these two continued to be speed demons until way past the "wrong side of 30." So I'm disputing the accuracy of that statement.
  18. Bellhorn04
    Why do you take everything so literally and seriously when you're a joker yourself?
  19. Bellhorn04
    It was dumb. Sale's innings were clearly trending back upward. You can see that on a graph. 😄
  20. Bellhorn04
    I firmly believe a day will come when you actually grow tired of recapitulating Sale's innings pitched from recent years, but I sense that day may be a ways off yet. 😁
  21. Bellhorn04
    Having teams to root against isn't always the worst thing. What last year's WS between Texas and Arizona provoked was mostly indifference.
  22. Bellhorn04
    OK, but maybe there is a touch of irony in the Sox dispatching Sale due to injury/age concerns and then signing Hendriks...
  23. Bellhorn04
    I'll take the Mets over the Dodgers, mainly because their rotation is in better shape. And yes they do have some mojo going.
  24. Bellhorn04
    I can't personally confirm how bad Wong is because I don't watch enough game action, but there is definitely a growing consensus that his defense is a huge problem.
  25. Bellhorn04
    MLB's crapshoot playoff system kind of dictates that all you can do is build a team that's good enough to make the playoffs. No matter how strong of a team you build, you're not immune from getting crapshot in October.
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