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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    Yes, it's pretty simple. If you keep adding teams the results are going to keep getting more random. Because baseball is much more subject to randomness than other team sports to begin with.
  2. Bellhorn04
    Right. That stretch from 1975 to 1978 just about killed me, but it was compelling to say the least.
  3. Bellhorn04
    Just think about all the effort that was put in by Duran and by the Red Sox to get him to this point. He was being virtually written off as a non-major leaguer two years ago.
  4. Bellhorn04
    I don't think this is how a team with the resources of the Red Sox should be addressing their needs.
  5. Bellhorn04
    The law of averages got them after that nightmarish 1996-2000 stretch. Unfortunately, it might be about ready to swing back the other way.
  6. Bellhorn04
    But it's shameful. There's a moral component in notin's position that spending is bad.
  7. Bellhorn04
    It's not something that has to be done. There are other ways to get good starting pitchers. And pitchers are the riskiest commodity of them all. It's a bad idea.
  8. Bellhorn04
    OK, so you admit that they've avoided struggles by continuing to spend - you just think it isn't the fair or honorable thing to do.
  9. Bellhorn04
    OK, well what you're doing now is highlighting the question of how we measure "success". Those who believe the playoffs are a crapshoot will argue that the Yankees and Dodgers failure to pile up rings has nothing to do with measuring their success. I think the evidence is pretty strong that the playoffs have become a crapshoot. No team has repeated since 2000. We're in our 24th year of teams not defending their title. The last 3 World Series have featured teams that won less than 90 games.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Teoscar 4.3 bWAR 3.5 fWAR avg. 3.9 O'Neill 2.7 bWAR 2.5 fWAR avg. 2.6 The O'Neill trade was a good one and fit well into a tight budget, but in terms of actual value Teoscar was considerably better.
  11. Bellhorn04
    From FanGraphs: Duran 2023 362 PA 15.9 Offensive RAR -3.2 Defensive RAR Duran 2024 735 PA 32.8 Offensive RAR 7.9 Defensive RAR Duran's jump in WAR from 2023 came from 2 things: 1) Played a full season 2) Vast improvement in defense His offensive value basically remained the same.
  12. Bellhorn04
    You were doing well until the last sentence. What long term struggles are the Yankees and Dodgers having?
  13. Bellhorn04
    So why stay under in 2021 after they got under in 2020? I'm suggesting that Henry's new outlook started back in 2019. In 2022 they went over, but only by $6 million.
  14. Bellhorn04
    Hugh, you're fine, and I agree with you much more often than disagree. I know I tend to sound a little edgy myself when I'm posting in the morning after my coffee. But I'm just throwing stuff out there to keep things interesting. 🙂
  15. Bellhorn04
    Hugh, they traded Betts and Price so they would be under in 2020.
  16. Bellhorn04
    The OP is absolutely advocating it if there's another team willing to make it happen. We argued about this for pages on the 2025 thread. My main argument against doing it is that we don't have enough offense that we can afford to give up Duran.
  17. Bellhorn04
    Not trying to be snarky when I say this, but it's pretty obvious that with a guy who just had an 8 WAR season after amassing about 2 WAR before that, and who is under control for 4 more years, their trade value is likely at its peak.
  18. Bellhorn04
    We can probably say the same about Tanner Houck. Should we trade him too?
  19. Bellhorn04
    OK, but identifying the exact peak doesn't really tell us much about the precise rate of decline. Can you tell us exactly how much speed Duran will lose over the next 5 years?
  20. Bellhorn04
    Hmmm, well, to some ears "ain't much" sure sounds like a colorful way of saying zero. Kind of like Clint Eastwood's line "Dyin' ain't much of a livin', boy." 😁
  21. Bellhorn04
    If we count 2020 as a season, they were under in 2020 and 2021. People tend to forget that because 2021 turned out good LOL
  22. Bellhorn04
    When he was with the Red Sox, did he trade one of our best players for an aging superstar? This part seems a little unfair to me.
  23. Bellhorn04
    Did they make him an offer or not?
  24. Bellhorn04
    A couple more points: 1) If 2024 was Duran's best season (very possible) it doesn't automatically mean he's going to go back to being a 1-2 WAR player and stay there. 2) Every other team is aware of the same possibility. Every other team has the same data and plenty of guys to analyze it.
  25. Bellhorn04
    No, that's not really the point. I'm questioning the scientific validity of the "speed goes early" statement. This is not about talent, it's strictly about the Point A to Point B part...
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