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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    2022-2024 averages: Pivetta 156 IP 2.2 bWAR 1.8 fWAR Wacha 143 IP 3.1 bWAR 2.5 fWAR Pivetta has delivered about 10% more innings. Wacha has delivered about 40% more value.
  2. Bellhorn04
    OK I mis-read your post a little the first time.
  3. Bellhorn04
    Abreu is getting traded. That's as close as I'll come to a "bold prediction". 🙂
  4. Bellhorn04
    Sorry but I don't really understand what you're saying.
  5. Bellhorn04
    Wacha got 3 years and $50 mill guaranteed. Not sure Pivetta would get any more than that, in fact I'm not sure why he would even get that much.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Pretty sure they were trading Betts regardless. The Price half dump was just part of the return.
  7. Bellhorn04
    Yeah, I think they're meeting with him essentially for PR purposes. They want us to know they're doing their due diligence and they are "always open to any possibility to improve".
  8. Bellhorn04
    We had one of those, but John Henry obviously doesn't buy into the concept!
  9. Bellhorn04
    I probably shouldn't have spoken for him on Fried.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Jon Heyman says we're in the mix! 😉 https://nypost.com/2024/11/11/sports/blue-jays-could-play-spoiler-in-yankees-mets-juan-soto-sweepstakes/ Heyman of course is alleged to be close with Boras and has been suspected of planting stuff that might help his friend. I think that's probably true.
  11. Bellhorn04
    When the Padres traded Soto the Yankees they got back pitching - King and Thorpe. We got zero pitching. At the time I thought Bloom had done his best, but in retrospect it was just a terrible job they did. And I have what I think is a satisfactory explanation (for myself at least LOL) for why the Betts trade happened so late. I think they delayed it because they didn't want to turn off season ticket buyers. I distinctly remember 700hitter being irate when the Betts trade rumors first started and basically accusing Bloom of lying about his intentions with Betts.
  12. Bellhorn04
    I thought Verdugo was the centerpiece, and Wong and Downs only came into it after Bloom decided against Graterol because of his medicals.
  13. Bellhorn04
    moon is just tired of injury-prone pitchers. It's got nothing to do with Snell's talent. Rather have Burnes or Fried who have proven to be more durable.
  14. Bellhorn04
    The Sox could not have botched the Betts trade much worse if they tried. They traded him to the team that was probably in the absolute best position to sign him to an extension, and they got a crappy return to boot (as shown by the Padres' return for Soto). Just an unbelievably bad job. Epic ineptitude. New York Jets level.
  15. Bellhorn04
    Who knows what impacted his decision the most? Can't overlook that the Dodgers had a lot to offer-a team with a ton of resources, committed to winning, great weather, the whole package, really.
  16. Bellhorn04
    Mike Trout is out there as another example that even the best of the best can have their careers derailed any time. And Trout was a better player than Soto is. And Soto will be getting about 50% more money than Trout's extension was.
  17. Bellhorn04
    That's probably because "afford" isn't the right word. The question is whether $650-700 million for any player is a rational expenditure. I think John Henry's opinion is that it is not. He already demonstrated this at a much smaller number with Betts.
  18. Bellhorn04
    I'm honestly surprised how many folks are entertaining this as a real world possibility. For John Henry to out-crazy Steve Cohen would be the most shocking and hilarious 180% turn by a sports owner in history. One big real world problem is that Henry has other owners to answer to, whereas Cohen does not.
  19. Bellhorn04
    Yeah, I took a quick look into it and there doesn't seem to be any evidence other than he was exceptionally big and strong for his age.
  20. Bellhorn04
    Hey, I'd love to have him too. But bidding against the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers is not really a formula for getting a fair deal. This is so reminiscent of the Yamamoto talk last year. Maybe Anthony will be a superstar and they'll lock him up early.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Fried and Burnes might get $150-200 million. Soto might get $650-700 million. Whichever way you go, there's going to be a pile of risk baked into the price. Anyone can get injured any time. There's really no sound principles on which to compare the options. We're in the world of the irrational here, where fragile athletes get decade-plus guaranteed mega-contracts. I just think that $650-700 million number is way, way too high for John Henry to even consider. After all, $350 million for Betts was obviously enough to make him very uneasy, and that wasn't forever ago. And Betts was arguably at least as good a bet as Soto, even given their official* age difference. * Someone else opened up the age rabbit hole, I'm just acknowledging its existence.
  22. Bellhorn04
    Now that is one heck of a rabbit hole...
  23. Bellhorn04
    But there's no Crochet in that post by moon.
  24. Bellhorn04
    Except with the Boras Four, where they were way heavy. Check out the prediction for Bellinger at #2. I thought this one was absurd when I first saw it. Then you had Snell, Monty and Chapman at #4, 6 and 7. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html
  25. Bellhorn04
    That's all pure speculation. Nothing wrong with speculation, we all do it. But the numbers are what they are. A career ERA+ of 98 at this point is just not impressive, regardless of the underlying factors.
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