Bellhorn04

Here's a hilarious but true thing I didn't know until I performed this exercise. The 1918 Red Sox won the World Series 4-2. There were a total of 19 runs scored in the 6 games. The Red Sox scored 9 of them. The biggest blowout was Game 5, won by the Cubs 3-0.

There's been a lot of doom and gloom about the current state of the Sox and I've been one of the contributors. I thought it might be nice for a change to talk about something fun and frivolous. Some time during the just-completed World Series and our talks about the 2004 team and so on, a fact I had never really noticed before hit me: the Red Sox have an amazing record in their World Series appearances. Of course the team had that nasty little stretch of 85 years without winning a single title. They made 4 World Series appearances during that period and each time they lost in the seventh game. And of course those heartbreaking near misses contributed heavily to the talk of a C____. What occurred to me recently was the flip side of the heartbreaks, which is that they managed to win 3 games each time. And then I added in the fact that in their other 9 appearances they won them all. So I thought "hey, they must have a pretty good overall W-L record." And I crunched the numbers. In their 13 WS the Red Sox played 78 games. One of them was tied. I'm going to ignore that for the purposes of calculating the W-L record. 48 wins 29 losses = .623 winning % - the equivalent of a 101-61 regular season. 312 runs scored 254 allowed = +58 run differential The really incredible numbers of course are for their 2004-2018 appearances. 16 wins 3 losses 108 runs scored 52 allowed = +56 differential So what does this prove? Absolutely nothing, of course. And yes Yankee fans, I know - you have 41 appearances and 27 wins. But unlike the Sox, you've really been hammered in some of the losses!

When we're feeling really pessimistic we tend to engage in hyperbole. I read almost all the posts here, and I really don't think there's anyone actually saying, in seriousness, that they expect our payroll to keep going down until we're the Pirates.

Obviously this is mostly about Anthony, but since you also brought an extension for Casas into it a couple of times, I think he's fair game too! Casas might actually be more of a case for caution in these early extensions. There's plenty to like about Casas's power and his patient, methodical approach at the plate. But now for the reality check: In 840 MLB PA's, Casas has an fWAR of 2.7, which makes him roughly an average player on a rate basis. His WAR gets hammered by poor defense and lack of speed - as it should. The other issue of course is that Casas had a long and troubling stint on the IL due to an injury in his rib cage area. No one really knows if this is an injury that will continue to hinder his career. For those reasons I think the Sox may have lucked out in Casas turning down their first extension offer, and he might not get a second. I like him because he's homegrown, he has a personality and he has the aforementioned power and excellent approach at the plate. But the hard cold reality is that the rest of his game is weak, and overall he's probably an average MLB first baseman with injury concerns. All of which just illustrates that it isn't always a slam dunk to tie up the kids, with some you're better off to get the cheap production while it lasts.

Yeah, I'm not really interested in Crochet. Lots of question marks. With guys like Burnes and Fried, they have at least proven themselves over multiple seasons.

moon, I just don't think you're placing enough emphasis on where we stand payroll-wise compared to other teams and compared to our revenues. Those are the most important barometers IMHO. None of this happens in a vacuum. It's just a point of disagreement, that's all. I do think you generally try to be fair all the way around.

They're telling some of us we're a bunch of tools who are so starved for entertainment that we might actually find this worth talking about. More importantly, they're telling the gambling addicts they can start betting on this for real, even though there will be a ton of changes before games actually start. 😛

Sam Kennedy's announcement back in January that the payroll was probably going to be lower than the previous year didn't get the attention it deserved. That was Sam saying the quiet part out loud. After all the stuff about how the budget isn't set in stone and it was being left up to Breslow, and with plenty of unsigned free agents still out there, Sam was fessing up to the reality of the situation.

But the Red Sox rankings in payroll have never been lower than they were in 2023 and 2024. It's clearly new territory. You keep attributing this to other teams "going nutty", while ignoring the context of rising revenues. No one is accusing Henry of going Carl Pohlad on us. But things are not the same as they were, for reasons none of us are privy to. We know the Sox reached out to RedBird Capital for a major cash infusion because of COVID losses, and that is one of the possible explanations. RedBird has a 10% stake in FSG, and they are strictly venture capitalists, and they probably command a hefty dividend on their investment. There's also the massive new investment in real estate, of course. Henry is pinching the payroll and he has his reasons.

Seeing Mookie Betts win a second ring in Dodger Blue, with a few more possibly yet to come, serves as a reminder of John Henry's colossal failure to do the right thing, and that the Harry Frazee-Babe Ruth comparisons are still very much in play. Betts had a phenomenal postseason, doing big things and small things in equal measure. What a player. Seeing Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo is a reminder that the Sox also failed spectacularly in the return for Betts. One year of Soto brought back Michael King and Drew Thorpe, who was traded for Dylan Cease. 2024 fWARs Cease 4.8 King 3.9 Wong 1.1 Verdugo 0.6 What a disaster. Fitts may turn out to be a decent back-end starter, so Breslow did his best to salvage something.

There's nothing wrong with being optimistic, and the optimism may prove well-founded. But there's a lot of uncertainty attached to many of those names. Or in some cases, they're just not that good at this point (Wong and Rafaela were 1 fWAR players). O'Neill, Pivetta, Jansen and Martin totaled 6.8 fWAR. How many of the names you listed had an fWAR of 2 or higher in 2024? I think as it stands, everything depends on a) the kids and b) significant pitching additions.

Nope, he's just another wishcaster.

He just turned 32. He's got 3-4 good years left, maybe. That leaves 5-6 more.

It is wishcasting, because only one man knows if it's true, and he ain't sayin'.

I think it was you who pointed out the decline in Bogey's power as a warning sign. He actually boosted his WAR in 2022 with a notable improvement in defense. The bottom line is that for San Diego to give 11 years and 280 million to a shortstop who will likely be moved to a new position soon, and whose power has declined, was flat-out bonkers. And I like Bogaerts a lot. I actually feel a little sorry for him in that he got a contract that's going to be pointed to as a disaster when it's all said and done.

If you use the 23.5 million number, Boston's offer was only 4.5 million more for the second year. If you use the 21 million (present value) number, Boston's offer was 7 million more for the second year.

It seems like a logical deduction. At their season-ending press conference they said they'd like to keep all three but likely couldn't.

From the sounds of it, if the Sox offered 3 years and say 50 million, Teoscar would have said yes. He says he did want a longer contract but when the Dodgers came forward with their offer he had to consider it because it was also a chance to be with a team going for a title. And they made the money enough to seal the deal. The bottom line is the Sox wouldn't go any higher than 28 million. Just like they wouldn't go any higher with Imanaga. It's been a recurring theme the last few years - making offers that just aren't enough to get it done,

With a lot of players it's just highest number wins, no question. Some of them get to pick where they want to play, and get more dough than expected to boot, like Yamamoto.

The oft-injured starting pitcher has come to be more like the norm than the aberration. The Dodgers just won the World Series with a 3-man rotation consisting of 2 guys who pitched a total of 165.1 innings this year, and a trade deadline acquisition.

The simple answer is yes. But it's hard to see the Sox being the team to do it.

Jordan Montgomery. Who really knows what impacts free agent signing decisions any more? Seems like a lot of randomness/luck involved, like everything else in baseball.

C'mon man, you're leaving out the dollars. The Red Sox offer was 2 years/$28 million, or $14 million per. The Dodgers deal was 1 year/$23.5 million with some deferred, present value $21 million. And the Dodgers obviously a more favorable destination for baseball and weather reasons. Just more Interest Kings close-but-no-cigar offseason buffoonery from the Sox.

I think the last few years JH has mostly just set the budget and let the CBOs figure out how to allocate it. Obviously he would have a big say in the larger deals. But I don't think he would need to be consulted on Jansen & Martin.

Are you really gonna make me re-work the numbers to show Chapman would still be higher?