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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. It's all guesswork.
  2. Then there's that Seinfeld episode where George is told by the doctor that his test results are negative, and George is going 'Negative? Oh no, Lord, why me?'
  3. I have always found the word 'remission' a strange one. It sounds like a bad thing but it's actually a very good thing.
  4. Normally I would too, but this has been such a weird offseason and there are so many unsigned big name players, I don't think anyone really knows exactly what's going on.
  5. But if nobody moves their offer, he'll have to budge. Two can play at the waiting game. Hopefully Dombrowski is tending to some other matters like pitching depth.
  6. Not a noodle bat, no. But about half his value came from defense.
  7. You made the statement that players with high offensive output typically get paid more. I don't think there's anything to base that on. I think the paradigm has changed and it's reflected in a guy like Heyward getting $184 million.
  8. That's cherry-pickin' though. What about Encarnacion - how does he fit into your model?
  9. Regression is kind of a confusing word because it implies going backward. But one of the definitions is 'return to a previous place'. That's the meaning that's being used - going back to when things were better, basically.
  10. That's it - Ortiz was paid VERY well? Okay, I guess that settles that! Your statement was: "Player's with high offensive output typically get paid more." Is there any data to back this up, or did you just pull it out of the air?
  11. Says who? See Jason Heyward, David Ortiz, Edwin Encarnacion etc.
  12. Not me. I hope the surgery was a great success.
  13. That projection for JDM was quite fair. If we can get him for less we'll be doing OK. Not to belabor the point (LOL), but Boras's 7/210 statement was patently absurd and didn't accomplish anything IMO
  14. If we had lots of money to play with and some prospects to trade it would certainly would be worth considering. But we're limited in both areas so we have to prioritize. Our top priorities should be a bat and a starting pitcher. We'll have to get by at second base with Hernandez, Holt or whoever...unless and until we find out Pedroia's recovery is not going according to schedule. IMHO
  15. I think that's exactly what's going on.
  16. Everyone would take the under on that one.
  17. Those FanGraph dollar figures aren't actually supposed to represent an earned value. But they do reflect a real number - the historic average cost per fWAR of all actual free agents.
  18. Great stuff, harmony, thanks. If this isn't good enough for mvp I don't know what would be. One little footnote which you are probably aware of is that prior to signing this extension which runs 2014-2021, Pedroia was already under contract tor 2014 and the team held an option on him for 2015.
  19. What data exactly are you looking for?
  20. Below market based on his fWAR and other measures, no? You can't necessarily get a good comp just from others at the same position.
  21. I have two thoughts. 1) You are in fact making a bet. 2) You're goin' down!
  22. If I can jump in here, there are degrees of bad contracts, so I think you sort of have to be a little more specific. Some are a little bad and some are monster albatrosses. JD for 5/130 would probably be a little bad. JD for 7/210 would be albatross bad.
  23. JD's missed games are a concern, no question. But I'm surprised you would want to go for Machado over JD. Last year JD hit 303/376/690 Machado hit 259/310/471 Huge differences. Machado is obviously the better all-around player, but it you really want to give the offense a boost, JD is the guy.
  24. I think I might be catching Velazquez Fever.
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