Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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Frankly Den you're in a pretty small minority now that puts that much emphasis on wins. It sounds like you'd need to see another full season out of him before making an offer. It's a cat and mouse game, because if Crochet has a big 2025 he might just say no to any extension offers and "bet on himself", as they say. In that case the Sox would be in a terrible position all of a sudden. -
Nope, he'll be 30 after the 2029 season. (DOB June 21/99) My offer is 4 added years, with an opt out after 3.
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6 years, 2025-2030 $170 million 21/23/27/30/33/36 Opt out after 2029 only. Opportunity to be a free agent at 30.
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I think there can be some correlation, depending on how close to free agency etc. After all, an extension has to make it worth the player's while to forego free agency. I brought up Yamamoto because notin was suggesting that the fact Crochet isn't a "known quantity" yet should lower his value. And I'm not saying Crochet should be looking for $325 million. My number is $170 million, and notin thinks that's insane.
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It is pretty comparable to a free agency situation, for the team. Impending free agency is why lucrative extensions get signed and why players like Mookie Betts and Juan Soto get traded a year or two before free agency. It's why Crochet got traded to us. Anyway, this is a situation where both sides have a lot of motivation to get a deal done and hopefully it happens.
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But there's no point offering a deal that's a non-starter for the other side. The Sox have done a bit too much of that the last few years. Crochet isn't exactly just another "arb-eligible pitcher". By some metrics he had the best stuff in the game last year. He's only 25. And the Sox gave up a pile of talent to get him. Yamamoto got 325 million plus posting fee without pitching in an MLB game. I think a 4 year/85 offer is clearly a non-starter.
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So here's my simple Sweet Spot Proposal: 6 years, 2025-2030 $170 million 21/23/27/30/33/36 Opt out after 2029 only.
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a) I honestly don't know much about Vlad's attitude issues. b) I don't expect to ever see him in a Red Sox uniform. I was just mainly highlighting the durability issue with Casas.
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Casas can probably improve his defense. It's his durability he has little control over. And that's the scary factor with him right now. I'm not saying Vlad Jr. is a real possibility, but one thing Vlad Jr. doesn't have is durability issues. He's missed a handful of games over the last 5 years.
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Sorry moon but when I read your posts on this the numbers seem to be bouncing all over the place. Why not present us with a single offer that you think would hit the sweet spot for both sides? No variables, just one offer, including the total cash, years it covers and opt outs.
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I'll still take: a) no deal over b) a long term deal with an opt out after 2027. With b you're opening yourself up to 2 different risks: 1) the albatross risk, and 2) the risk the player does well in 2025-2027 but opts out because his price has gone way up. Compared to that, a is not such a bad deal. You're getting Crochet for 2 years for 15 million, and you can wait and see how he does. His price may go way up but it also may go down. And you've still got all the money you didn't sink into that long term contract. It would suck giving up so much talent if we only have Crochet for 2 years, but there really are worse things.
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If you give him a hefty 4 year contract with no opt-out, he's a rich man and a free agent at 29. That would be a great compromise for each side IMHO. Not that I expect this is what happens. It's just something to jabber about.
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You know what fans are like. We fixate on weaknesses. Casas's defense has been very disappointing and his durability does seem a bit in question. On the flip side he has great power and an excellent approach at the plate.
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Doesn't seem to be any doubt they've been dangling him, but completing a deal is a whole other story. Especially with the Sox these days, it seems...
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3 straight years of mediocrity/suckitude makes it very hard to argue this point!
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I'm not convinced it's a foregone conclusion. But I certainly hear your concerns. I'm one of the ones who's been arguing we don't have enough offense. And on the face of it trading a young power hitter like Casas does seem kind of nutty. It all depends on the return and whether they are serious about reconfiguring the infield (moving Raffy to 1B).
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Yeah, I don't think there are any great comps and that's why it's tricky. But we know the Sox are very high on him to give up what they did. Losing him after 2 years would not be a good outcome. They have to get a deal done. I think we might see a deal that's a little different from the "standard" ones here.
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Cheapskate!
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5 years including 2025 and 2026 - $145 million - no opt outs - incentives tossed in. If anyone complains that $130 is too much for those 3 extra years they're thinking too much like JH!
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OK, the $125 number is probably too high. I'm just thinking Crochet might really like the idea of a 4 year deal that sets him for life but also gets him to free agency at age 29. And $125 while an overpay is obviously less risky than $200. Maybe a 5 year deal would work. There is no perfect deal. There's going to be high cost and high risk no matter what. We're always talking about 7-8 year deals for pitchers being too long. I'd prefer a shorter deal with no opt-outs than a 7 year deal with opt-outs. But to get Crochet's side to agree to a shorter deal the money has to be compelling.
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How about this: 4 years including 2025 and 2026, $125 million (or so), no opt out. He can become a free agent at 29.
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But I was talking about the threat of injury from Crochet's end of it, if he doesn't sign an extension. That risk is huge too, but it's his risk. The risks on either side are why there has to be a trade-off reflected in the terms.
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What about the threat of injury? If Crochet doesn't sign an extension and then gets hurts in 2025, his career earnings in baseball might be capped at around $10 million. Meanwhile, $150 million is more than he could ever spend.
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Article: Happy Trails, Bobby Dalbec
Bellhorn04 replied to Adam Morgan's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
Perfect opportunity for him! -
It's not necessarily "betting against yourself" when the risk of career-ending injury at any time is not insignificant for a pitcher...
